IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I did and it shows 3-6 inches. Anyway, good trends tonight. You must have a different version of Storm Vista than me. It's as clear as day that the cut off is just south of NYC and in fact over Sandy Hook. Semantics regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 If I didn't know better I'd tell people radar looks kind of promising. I think NYC may get into the 4+ up along the immediate south coast of New England. DC 8-12. That's a forecast vs model out put. good seeing you in here. it's just like the old days when everyone was one big happy family. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Nyc is .33" on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 good seeing you in here. it's just like the old days when everyone was one big happy family. lol Yes seeing the big guy in here brings bk memories of Eastern Boards...ahhhh. should stop by in here more often weather fella- Learned the term Jebwalk because of you ( appreciation of finer details & pleasant memoment in life important. Cheers to Bos from he Big Apple) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Nyc is .33" on the euro. That supports the 2-4" that SV shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Nyc is .33" on the euro. Correct if Im wrong but isnt that a bump up from earlier today from .25 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 IMO the Euro was very close to pulling a rabbit out of the hat, this one isn't over yet. remember the euro yanked north significantly at the final moment on 0z 2/14 run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Correct if Im wrong but isnt that a bump up from earlier today from .25 ? Yeah a bit of an increase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 According to the map that I posted, one more bump north and NYC can see 6+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'll stick with what I had from earlier, 3 inches in the northern Bronx, 6 inches in the Rockaways. Hopefully the models are done with the south trend and maybe tick north. A slight reorientation of the PV can allow that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 According to the map that I posted, one more bump north and NYC can see 6+ I like your map better than mine, but they don't match and the 0.33" doesn't support more than 4" at 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The PV lobe is quicker and as a result the initial WAA wave is weaker and now the 2nd wave is north....the RAP looks good at the end of its current run but of course it often has a NW bias at this range.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 According to the map that I posted, one more bump north and NYC can see 6+ What this run did ,coupled with the GFS, is give us hope for at least another 12 hours. Suddenly 4-8 inches doesnt seem so bad does it everything is relative in life! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Sorry but less than .50 is not exciting when Things were Trending bad for us last nigh and this morning we were seeing between 50-60 on a lot of Models now we are happy with like a 4 inch storm. Unless this bumps north again tomorrow than I will get a bit more excited. Gonna be flustering watching South Jersey get close to a foot while North Jersey scrapes out a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'll stick with what I had from earlier, 3 inches in the northern Bronx, 6 inches in the Rockaways. Hopefully the models are done with the south trend and maybe tick north. A slight reorientation of the PV can allow that. I like where im in JFK in a storm like this .55 from GFS ( which been the most solid this time around) will likely translate to the 6 inches & a slight uptick tomorrow or an overperforming intial wave can bump that up to 8. Im optimistic for 1st time in 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 That supports the 2-4" that SV shows. Disagree. 3"-5" with ratios. Temps at all levels are very cold during the heart of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Sorry but less than .50 is not exciting when Things were Trending bad for us last nigh and this morning we were seeing between 50-60 on a lot of Models now we are happy with like a 4 inch storm. Unless this bumps north again tomorrow than I will get a bit more excited. Gonna be flustering watching South Jersey get close to a foot while North Jersey scrapes out a few inches. BS. NYC is around 6" away from 2nd place All time. This event will put us very close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Sorry but less than .50 is not exciting when Things were Trending bad for us last nigh and this morning we were seeing between 50-60 on a lot of Models now we are happy with like a 4 inch storm. Unless this bumps north again tomorrow than I will get a bit more excited. Gonna be flustering watching South Jersey get close to a foot while North Jersey scrapes out a few inches. I will take any snow that I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I like where im in JFK in a storm like this .55 from GFS ( which been the most solid this time around) will likely translate to the 6 inches & a slight uptick tomorrow or an overperforming intial wave can bump that up to 8. Im optimistic for 1st time in 48 hrs I'm in Brooklyn and the models have slightly higher precip in our area compared to Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 If you look back at similar storms that pounded DCA, hit Philly fairly hard but more or less missed NYC, with the exception of 2/6/10 they generally do give NYC decent snows on the south side, so-so north side and little if anything Hudson Valley and N NJ...1/26/87, 2/23/87 and PD1 are good examples...almost all of those had fairly similar gradients from the Bronx down to Staten Island with JFK notably more than LGA in all of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 BS. NYC is around 6" away from 2nd place All time. This event will put us very close to it. 2nd place will be nice . I don't think 1st place will happen anymore. If the models didn't trend south with this storm and kept the 12+ inches for our area, I think 96 would have been in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Idk how good the RUC is, but it brings in 3 in. for the metro with only 24 hours out http://ruc.noaa.gov/RUC/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=ruc_jet:&runtime=2014030204&plot_type=acsnw_t3sfc&fcst=24&time_inc=60&num_times=25&model=ruc&ptitle=RUC%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=24&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t3&adtfn=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 If you look back at similar storms that pounded DCA, hit Philly fairly hard but more or less missed NYC, with the exception of 2/6/10 they generally do give NYC decent snows on the south side, so-so north side and little if anything Hudson Valley and N NJ...1/26/87, 2/23/87 and PD1 are good examples...almost all of those had fairly similar gradients from the Bronx down to Staten Island with JFK notably more than LGA in all of them. With all respect to the rest of my NY brethern being in Kew Gardens - 10 minutes drive from JFK- smiled reading that as I just wrote the same thing. in any MECS we are 2-3 inches less and so if tomorrow I get 2-3 more I wont apologize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Disagree. 3"-5" with ratios. Temps at all levels are very cold during the heart of this. The ratios won't be that great with this event. 12:1 max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Idk how good the RUC is, but it brings in 3 in. for the metro with only 24 hours out http://ruc.noaa.gov/RUC/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=ruc_jet:&runtime=2014030204&plot_type=acsnw_t3sfc&fcst=24&time_inc=60&num_times=25&model=ruc&ptitle=RUC%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=24&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t3&adtfn=1 the RUC has nailed some in near past - last batch in last bbig noreaster for eg. was spot on with outrageous QPF output ( 2nd wave) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Idk how good the RUC is, but it brings in 3 in. for the metro with only 24 hours out http://ruc.noaa.gov/RUC/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=ruc_jet:&runtime=2014030204&plot_type=acsnw_t3sfc&fcst=24&time_inc=60&num_times=25&model=ruc&ptitle=RUC%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=24&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t3&adtfn=1 when i stopped looking at the ruc a few years ago, it was a terrible model. plus it was an extremely short range model.... just a few hours out. and it still sucked. other than that, it's fantastic. has it been changed since? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The ratios won't be that great with this event. 12:1 max. 12 to 1 ratio is 4" of snow for NYC on the euro. And SV snow maps are useless. They are just straight up 10 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The ratios won't be that great with this event. 12:1 max. Temps are going to be in the low 20s on Monday with light to moderate snow. The ratios will be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Only one of the top 15 analogs over the east at 48 hours from the updated 00z runs has 6" or more of snow for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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