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jaxjagman

March Pattern Discussion

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Longshot? Depends on where you're talking about. Definitely not going to happen in Memphis or Nashville.

Sent from my SCH-L710

 

My brother-in-law's cousin's friend said the Europeans are adding a "bluff detection algorithm" to the ECMWF next year.  That might cut down on the false positive clowns for Memphis.

 

:guitar:

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My brother-in-law's cousin's friend said the Europeans are adding a "bluff detection algorithm" to the ECMWF next year. That might cut down on the false positive clowns for Memphis.

:guitar:

LOL, they need to do something. They should probably just invalidate any result showing snow and replace it with either rain or cloudy. This would greatly enhance performance.

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This is relevant to the discussion how?

Just a point,i'm not going to argue with you and don't know what your point is to attack me.I believe it will trend more severe,you don't ,so freaking what?

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Just a point,i'm not going to argue with you and don't know what your point is to attack me.I believe it will trend more severe,you don't ,so freaking what?

I don't want to discourage you from posting but andy is excellent with severe weather. While it is a dynamic system, it is missing elements to be a severe weather outbreak as he noted above. What can be interpreted as attacking can also be seen as reasonable questioning in a case like this...and we are a discussion board afterall....

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Let's get back to snow. Sunday/Monday looks like another NC mountains elevation event. Nothing for Tenn. Nothing for the NC Piedmont. Severe wx is blocked out at the moment. Basketball metaphors, but forget it with a trof over the SE. Need that trof in the Plains.

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In MRX's discussion last night they noted the more amped Euro solution and that they were leaning toward it. Said the Euro has been more consistent and that more amplified systems are typical in March.

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I don't know where to put it bc there is no general obs thread here for March, but right now looks pretty good here. I just drove home in a band of heavy snow and snow grains it was awesome.

Edit: For upslope radar looks pretty good right now! Maybe it will continue

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It's 36 here so it's not gonna take much more Reb! Maybe it will keep coming and surprise us all overnight. At the very least it will be icy in the morning. Surprised there is no SPS at least for the Northern Valley. We will probably need it overnight if radar is any indication

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Still not cold enough to stick here but it's still snowing. Earlier it was so heavy it didn't have any choice but to stick but as soon as it tapered down the dusting melted off. Such is life I guess. Maybe it will continue awhile longer or better yet Mondays system will work out. Btw Congrats John!

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I jut looked back out and actually have a light dusting now with off and on snow showers. The picnic table actually has a light covering and some leaves in the yard, but that's about it right now. Looks like I'm at about 32.5 degrees right now, so if it keeps up it may very well produce a dusting here. At least it's pretty to look at

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Ended up with a nice dusting on cars grass and rooftops overnight and this morning. Way more than I expected, although temps did not fall anywhere close to as cold as they were forecast. I bottomed out at 26. Was expecting 21 or so, oh well rather see a little snow anyway than 5 extra degrees colder.

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12z Euro days 6-10 pattern has my attention. Saw Cosgrove mentioning this on FB. Checked the models. Interesting to say the least.

u7yhu7y6.jpg

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Canadian and now the 6z GFS is on board for a light snow event for the Tennessee Valley with a bigger event for the Southeast next week. This looks like it has the potential to be a much bigger event if our trough digs further southwest.

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12Z Euro found it again for Tuesday, but mainly light snow Northeast Tenn and northeast from there. Apps get more snow and the Northeast US gets hammered on this run. Much depends on timing of surface highs north. Also the lead/front wave on Sunday needs to set the table properly - digging the broad trough for the Tuesday wave. SER nowhere in sight, so the door remains open into late March.

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Appears that there could be something on the horizon early-mid week next week for the Tennessee valley. Maybe one last snowstorm? Any thoughts on that?


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I wish I had Euro access at Weatherbell and pro, but I always let them go once into March. Looks better at 500, I think the threat is legit, just hoping the flow can back enough to create an inland runner that gets going over the Deep South.

Amazing we are even having this discussion.

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