GD0815 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Euro is further east and weaker. Ehhh. Not a good sign. Moving towards the other models. What a shame though. Another Euro fail. I must have slept through a few days since you are calling fail for a storm that is three days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 When the Euro has been all by itself this year it has caved every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I must have slept through a few days since you are calling fail for a storm that is three days away. You know that I am always the last one to give up. This storm isn't looking good. The Euro keeps on trending east and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 And suddenly what looked to be a potentially golden 10-14 days with 1 chance after another is looking markedly meeker, bleeker, colder & drier. Never over till snow lady sings of course but strong signs r next 10 days wont be nearly as snowy as earlier indications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 And suddenly what looked to be a potentially golden 10-14 days with 1 chance after another is looking markedly meeker, bleeker, colder & drier. Never over till snow lady sings of course but strong signs r next 10 days wont be nearly as snowy as earlier indications. I agree. The PV and +NAO are hurting our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 It hangs energy back like the other guidance so the trough goes negative too late for more than light snow. That was the adjustment that the Euro made 0z and holds again at 12z. Is the Euro not get sampling data this season, before the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Trend is you're nw Friend this winter. Enough said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 The NAVGEM is a suppression biased model Is this some new fangled physics package? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 And suddenly what looked to be a potentially golden 10-14 days with 1 chance after another is looking markedly meeker, bleeker, colder & drier. Never over till snow lady sings of course but strong signs r next 10 days wont be nearly as snowy as earlier indications. This sounds familiar. Oh wait that's because it is, does what happened a month ago ring a bell. You're going to have the cold, and you have the MJO and PNA in your favor so no it won't be cold and dry. It's unlikely we go through this upcoming period without getting at least one significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 23, 2014 Author Share Posted February 23, 2014 Upton still forecasting snow likely wednesday ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 320 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014 NYZ072-240915- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)- 320 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014 TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING THEN PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 30. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Upton still forecasting snow likely wednesday ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 320 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014 NYZ072-240915- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)- 320 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014 TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING THEN PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 30. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. But instead of 2 time periods at 60% its now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 But instead of 2 time periods at 60% its now 1It's a light snow event if we are lucky. This pattern has insane potential the next 2 weeks Wednesday is not, and never was, a part of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 23, 2014 Author Share Posted February 23, 2014 It's a light snow event if we are lucky. This pattern has insane potential the next 2 weeks Wednesday is not, and never was, a part of that. never ? I suggest you review the various forums and NWS and other media outlets from the last few days discussing Wednesdays potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd DAY 3......MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...A FEW MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THATWILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AND CROSS THE OHVALLEY AND NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE HEIGHT FALLS WILL HELPGENERATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER TUESDAYNIGHT WHICH SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTHEAST WELL OFFSHORE THEMID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN SUFFICIENTLY COLDTHERMAL PROFILES...THE ANTICIPATED WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPICLIFT AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULDGENERATE AN AREA OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW ACROSSPORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ALONG WITH THEMID-ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTAND IMPACT ESPECIALLY COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLANDINCLUDING CAPE COD ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCEFORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT THE ECMWF MODEL ALONG WITH THE THREEENSEMBLE MEANS INCLUDING THE GEFS MEAN...ECENS MEAN AND SREF MEANSUPPORT SUFFICIENT QPF FOR THE THREAT OF AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHESOF SNOW. THE DETERMINISTIC NAM...GFS AND UKMET MODELS WERE MUCHDRIER. THEREFORE A LOW RISK OF 4 INCH AMOUNTS IS INDICATED FOR THEMID-ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXCEPT FORCAPE COD WHERE A MODERATE RISK IS DENOTED AT THIS TIME.THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.ORRISON http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f072_usbg.gif I will go all in .....think the qpf totals will improve the next 24hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 never ? I suggest you review the various forums and NWS and other media outlets from the last few days discussing Wednesdays potentialMaybe I missed something and I'm not trying to be confrontational, but I don't remember a single model run or discussion that made me think this was a major threat. 3-6" showed up for a bit on the Euro, but even that waned quickly with each successive run. Thw highest qpf was always south and east even on the most robust runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 23, 2014 Author Share Posted February 23, 2014 Maybe I missed something and I'm not trying to be confrontational, but I don't remember a single model run or discussion that made me think this was a major threat. 3-6" showed up for a bit on the Euro, but even that waned quickly with each successive run. Thw highest qpf was always south and east even on the most robust runs. it wasn't a major threat ( 10 inches or more) just another one of those potential 3 - 8 or 9 inch snowfalls and many folks here and in the media were expecting it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b368/Doorman_/rl_zps4ff40f65.gif http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/ Ramsdis slide show -Current Conditions- for the Sat Trackers!!! watch things ramp up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I assume 18z models didn't show the storm any further n&w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I assume 18z models didn't show the storm any further n&w Nope. Threat's not dead but definitely on life support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I assume 18z models didn't show the storm any further n&w The SREFs came west slightly, the GFS was basically unchanged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The SREFs came west slightly, the GFS was basically unchanged. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=sref&area=namer&cycle=20140223%2015%20UTC¶m=precip_p24&fourpan=no&imageSize=&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 00Z Nam 66hr surface prec http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/00/US/namUS_sfc_prec_066.gif half full or half empty??? no pbp from me (unqualified) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Nice images Doorman! Nam moisture looks to come primarily from the northern feature. Let's see if we can squeeze a few inches out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 00z gfs low just east of obx light snow in area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 15z wed light snow..steady snow mid Atlantic. Looks a lot like 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Gfs 2-4 for this event. It's very cold. Temps in mid 20's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Gfs has .25 for Phl and .10+ fir NYC. Temps very cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Very Interesting http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 GGEM has nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 24, 2014 Author Share Posted February 24, 2014 0Z GFS has received new sampling obviously the northwest trending has begun http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014022400/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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