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Central PA & The Fringes - February 2014 Pt. VI


2001kx

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In between the heavy Russia going into Ukraine coverage this evening, CNN talking about the storm with the headline "100 million in the path of major winter storm". Who posted that on their facebook or whatever like 4 days ago? He needs a freakin medal immediately lol.  

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Our department policy is to issue snowfall maps 24 hours out from the beginning of the storm at the LATEST. We have not issued a map because of the fact that guidance is still all over the place. Believe me, Dr. Scala, Joe, Christine, and myself have talked about numbers, but at the earliest I'll show them tonight during our 10/11 newscasts, and if there's still no solid consensus by tonight, Christine will show them tomorrow morning. There has been a significant southward trend today (as we have all seen), but I don't believe this storm is just a minor system for us yet. 

 

How many times have we seen our favorite models trend one way, to trend the opposition direction within 48 hours?

 

Looking forward to seeing your call. I was at the gym during the 6pm news and it was fun watching all the forecasters doing their thing on adjacent screens.

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srefs look ok but actually were a shift south from the last run.  I do think this will trend north the last 24 hours but I don't think that will start until tomorrow.  We need this south shift to stop NOW, if we just need it to shift 50 miles north we are ok...but if this turns into a DC south snowstorm on the 0z run we are in big trouble. 

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I wish I had time to browse some of the other forums. I am working on an epidemiology paper due on Sunday. I then have training next week.

The training place called before and said they were going to close on Monday. I said do you want to make sure it snows first?

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The new SREF's have solid QPF, a 0.75" mean for UNV for instance, but even there the plumes are polluted in the early going by rain and mix, and thus only ends up about a 4 inch mean snow wise. 21z is actually better than 15z from that standpoint, most of the 15z SREF QPF was rain and the axis of heaviest precip was absurdly far north compared to the rest of the 12z suite today (up in north central PA). Probably gonna be a few more runs before that gets on or near the same page as other guidance. 

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