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February Banter II


jburns

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Nobody can figure these models out. Having the GFS and GGEM on board for cold is not that comforting without the Euro on board. I know one model run should not be a concern, but there is so much variability from run to run, it's just crazy!

 

And like Lookout pointed out, the temp difference in the GFS and Euro is crazy.

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Nobody can figure these models out. Having the GFS and GGEM on board for cold is not that comforting without the Euro on board. I know one model run should not be a concern, but there is so much variability from run to run, it's just crazy!

 

Yeah.  I have no idea about the EPS, but the Euro OP has clearly trended away from any meaningful cold.  I expect the other models will follow soon.  There seems to be no mechanism to dislodge the PV to the south and keep it displaced there.  And the lack of phasing of the streams and the lack of a really strong storm coming about is really surprising to me.  I thought we'd see that by now...maybe not for us but for somewhere.

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The gfs really needs a win as of late.  It needs to latch onto a storm and hold it for 5 days before it comes to fruition to restore its legitimacy.  Its hard to feel good about anything it shows when the euro doesn't support it.  I am hoping like everyone else that the euro caves but we all know the history of this battle lately.

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