weathafella Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Obviously verbatim, but that's a soaking rain for anyone south and east of say Worcester? Snow to rain with substantial snow on the back side as long as we're talking verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Anyone have the frame before that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 I gotta see the deep layer tropospheric fielding on that ... dubiously over-rout solution to say the least. You'd have to really perfectly time a low capture into newly closing mid lever center, where stream dynamics are hyper situating q-vector forcing ideally, which is not an overall circumstance provided by a progressive speed flow. But I dunno -- maybe it interacts the N-stream more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 the CMC deepens this monster 15MB's in 6 hours (from hr102 to 108)...WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 money shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GWR Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Anyone have the frame before that? http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 This depiction, here, would argue for a whiter solution "slightly" SE of the product in the above posts... Either way, this is just an ideally closing 500mb sfc that fights back against the progressive background appeal, just enough ... Not much N-stream, interestingly; in fact, could argue for slightly less, allowing the lead S-stream impulse to just utterly maximize the single stream low. In other words, no ensemble required!! haha Actually, not entirely true; since the S-sream system is 'in the cage' of the L/W axis, that is technically a partial phase -- it's just that there is less key negative interference going on. Fascinating solution, though no GGEM solution should be taken too seriously unless it is the initialization.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 If that were to be the actual solution I would find that deform band and chase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 UKMET looks good too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 If that were to be the actual solution I would find that deform band and chase Haha, right! Someone gets a couple of 7" hours with seismic thunder claps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 There's our elevation event on the GGEm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 UKMET looks good too Despite it's antics over the longer term performance ... it has been remarkably consistent wrt to this event. It latched onto the Miller A deepening impressively 2 days ago and has not really wavered outside of irrelevant details, since. It's probably a nice compromise between the GFS water-on-the-brain, the Euro's W, and the Canadians drama-queen solutions, too. Until something else verifies altogether - haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Interesting that the timing on this has slowed. initially it was a Wed nite event..now it's Thursday night/Friday event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 UKMET looks good tooDo you have later panels? This argues for a thread the needle snow and as opposed to the amped up euro of last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It's not an elevation event. That's a paste bomb for Ray on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It's not an elevation event. That's a paste bomb for Ray on the GGEM. I know you don't agree..but this has looked to me like it very well could be an elevation event where everyone gets snow..even to the coast but the hills get quite a bit more as it's a 30-33 type snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 It's not an elevation event. That's a paste bomb for Ray on the GGEM. Yeah, I don't see this limited to els.. Although, I could almost see some shadowing west of the ridge lines in the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I know you don't agree..but this has looked to me like it very well could be an elevation event where everyone gets snow..even to the coast but the hills get quite a bit more as it's a 30-33 type snow I think temps would be fine in the low interior elevations with a bombing low creating more nrly flow. This is more of your classic 0C isotherm at 850 is close to the rain/snow line type deal. At least as modeled. I wouldn't fall in love with wrapped up solutions this far out in this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I think temps would be fine in the low interior elevations with a bombing low creating more nrly flow. This is more of your classic 0C isotherm at 850 is close to the rain/snow line type deal. At least as modeled. I wouldn't fall in love with wrapped up solutions this far out in this winter. I don't think it'll be anymore than a 4-8 or 5-10 inch type storm. It's not going to be a mega storm. This winter isn't going to feature that..Seeing as we only have about 10 days left anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I don't think it'll be anymore than a 4-8 or 5-10 inch type storm. It's not going to be a mega storm. This winter isn't going to feature that..Seeing as we only have about 10 days left anyway Well you can't rule anything out quite yet. We'll see what the rest of guidance does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Of course cmc is overdone but the signal it's sending is this ain't heading ots. Not sure I see the connection. The Cmc in this range has had massive coastals on multiple systems that grazed or went ots. The fact that it's not over Vermont I take as a bad sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Do you have later panels? This argues for a thread the needle snow and as opposed to the amped up euro of last night.image.jpg UKMET 96 and 120hr. Looks like a slightly weaker version of the GGEM bomb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Not sure I see the connection. The Cmc in this range has had massive coastals on multiple systems that grazed or went ots. The fact that it's not over Vermont I take as a bad sign. All I was inferring was that the signal for this event is growing. Cmc is not alone in showing a coastal. And if you have read my posts this winter you know my utter disdain for GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Thank you weather gun. I'd take that in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Euro is a snowy sunrise of sne Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This should be a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yeah euro is a nice hit for sne...classic coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Euro models the system behind the heels a little better as a kicker, but the srn stream s/w allows a nice storm on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Euro starts snow after midnite Wed. Back to Wed nite / Thursday storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Sends it right over the bm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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