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kvskelton

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The GGEM was a pretty good snow event for most of the state. Classic Miller A gulf low track from Louisiana to South Georgia to just off the Carolina coast. Precip type maps shows heavy snow moving across the state with 15-25mm (.60-1inch) of precip. South of 40 would probably see mixing issues and there are some 25-30mm totals down that way.

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Allan Huffman is talking up a winter storm for tennessee next week. The 0z Canadian looked quite interesting.

 

It sure did.  That seems to be the best case scenario.  It seems like there is quite a bit of consistency at this point with the general idea of what's going to go down next week.  But, models are all over the place with temps.  Some runs have the 850's torching with the surface cold, other runs have the surface torching and the 850s cold.  Those lines are flying around everywhere and it's anybody's guess at this point what the precip type will be, at least in the TN Valley.

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It sure did.  That seems to be the best case scenario.  It seems like there is quite a bit of consistency at this point with the general idea of what's going to go down next week.  But, models are all over the place with temps.  Some runs have the 850's torching with the surface cold, other runs have the surface torching and the 850s cold.  Those lines are flying around everywhere and it's anybody's guess at this point what the precip type will be, at least in the TN Valley.

I agree,the Canadian is showing two systems like the Euro but the GFS don't

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Here is a run down of the 0z Euro ensembles through hour 240.  This is what it is showing as snow totals, although we all know there could be sleet or freezing rain mixed in with that. 

 

51 members total

 

Bristol

7.5 inches deterministic, 4.8 ensemble mean

6 are greater than 9 inches

15 are greater than 6 inches

40 are greater than 2 inches

All show some snow with only one showing a dusting

 

Knoxville

2.3 deterministic, 2.7 mean

2 greater than 9

7 greater than 6

25 greater than 2

All show snow with 10 dustings

 

Chattanooga

4 deterministic, 1.8 mean

1 greater than 9

6 greater than 6

13 greater than 2

All but 10 show at least a dusting

 

Crossville

5.5 deterministic, 3.5 mean

2 greater than 9

9 greater than 6

30 greater than 2

All show snow with 7 dustings

 

Nashville

3 deterministic, 3 mean

5 greater than 6

29 greater than 2

All show snow with 6 dustings

 

Paris

2.6 deterministic, 2.8 mean

2 greater than 9

7 greater than 6

29 greater than 2

All show snow with 1 dusting

 

Memphis

1.6 deterministic, 2.3 mean

1 greater than 9

3 greater than 6

24 greater than 2

All show snow with 4 dustings

 

 

Road trip to Tri Cities?

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Stove..on Matthew East's video on the models, it appears that much of the TN Valley is effected by WAA or Warm nose. Are the models, particularly the Euro and GFS, pretty accurate in their temperature profile depiction? For us in TN, what do we need to have happen to keep the temperature profiles supportive of snow? Does the high pressure to the north need to be stronger and not shift to the east as quickly? The storm track looks very favorable for us based on past significant snow events in the Valley. With the low pressure tracking to our south, it's counterclockwise rotation should be pulling in colder air from the NE over our region. I hope we don't miss a significant snow by a few degrees!!!

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Stove..on Matthew East's video on the models, it appears that much of the TN Valley is effected by WAA or Warm nose. Are the models, particularly the Euro and GFS, pretty accurate in their temperature profile depiction? For us in TN, what do we need to have happen to keep the temperature profiles supportive of snow? Does the high pressure to the north need to be stronger and not shift to the east as quickly? The storm track looks very favorable for us based on past significant snow events in the Valley. With the low pressure tracking to our south, it's counterclockwise rotation should be pulling in colder air from the NE over our region. I hope we don't miss a significant snow by a few degrees!!!

 

My understanding is that it hinges on the strength and placement of that high pressure.  If it scoots out or weakens too quickly we go to rain too early.  Also probably depends on the timing of our storm.

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Stove..on Matthew East's video on the models, it appears that much of the TN Valley is effected by WAA or Warm nose. Are the models, particularly the Euro and GFS, pretty accurate in their temperature profile depiction? For us in TN, what do we need to have happen to keep the temperature profiles supportive of snow? Does the high pressure to the north need to be stronger and not shift to the east as quickly? The storm track looks very favorable for us based on past significant snow events in the Valley. With the low pressure tracking to our south, it's counterclockwise rotation should be pulling in colder air from the NE over our region. I hope we don't miss a significant snow by a few degrees!!!

The GFS model moves the high out quickly b/c it breaks down the ridge over Baffin Island pretty quickly.  Since that block develops nicely on modeling, I would think it holds longer than current GFS modeling shows.  Time will tell, but MOST of TN is in the game. I am becoming more and more interested in the overrunning event before the main low too.  It has the potential to be a nice little event across the state, starting as early as Monday morning!

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