Atomixwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 People keep bringing up the sleet pack from the 2007 VDay debacle. My car at the time (dodge stratus) was cemented to the earth in that nonsense because my landlord was too cheap to plow. After about a week of walking about Palmyra as if I were Moses or something, I asked a few of my landlord's nephews to help me get my car out of the glacier. These geniuses decided to place a wooden plank under my back tire and stand behind it as they tried to used it for grip. Needless to say, the wooden plank shot into a dude's ankle at a high rate of speed and the Waaaaambulance was called in for a nice trip to Hershey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonfish490 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 In recent history the CAD has seemed to be underdone on the models. Hopefully at worst we will see a long event sleetfest and no one gets devastating freezing rain in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ick...RGEM changes over basically everyone in PA to at least sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It's going to be REALLY interesting how high we can get tomorrow, my guess is that temps are going to under perform tomorrow with the snowpack and the clouds moving in. NAM has dense clouds 15kft thick from 250 to 500mb from 11a to sundown tomorrow. If places that are going to get ZR don't get above, lets call it 26 tomorrow, there's going to be trouble. I completely agree JT. Tonights lows are supposed to get into teens and temps are already on their way south. With a fresh cold airmass funneling its way down east of the apps over a high water content snowfall spells recipe for under performing temps from refrigerator effect. The clouds will just be icing on cake really to lock in temps before precip arrives tomorrow night. The question then becomes how far up aloft can we cool down the levels below 0 C. I mentioned earlier about RT 30 being the dividing line between IP and ZR as you mentioned not too long ago, so we're def on the same page. I have CWS with Eric tomorrow afternoon, so the discussion will be pretty in depth. I am very interested on his take with this storm. I'll probably recap the discussion on here. Ice is pretty, but too much could be devestating. The total moisture involved in this system will probably be under forecasted for entire area. Southern stream systems usually over perform qpf wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The GFS being so warm is bizarre. And extremely likely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ctp and mt holly have varying snow forecast maps especially from Lebanon into Berks county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Does GGEM change us to sleet up here. Either sleet or pounding snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 For a good laugh, check out the most recent page of the NYC forum's thread on the 2/9-10 storm. Earthlight ripping people to shreds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 For a good laugh, check out the most recent page of the NYC forum's thread on the 2/9-10 storm. Earthlight ripping people to shreds That's because a couple of those guys are the definition of idiot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 For a good laugh, check out the most recent page of the NYC forum's thread on the 2/9-10 storm. Earthlight ripping people to shreds Wow. 10 inches is the new 4 inch let down I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Lovely. Eastern, you ready to develop that glacier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Lovely. Eastern, you ready to develop that glacier? I think 1-2" snow to 1-2" sleet to .3-.5" freezing rain. So yup. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wow just realized the huge difference in snow maps between CTP and PHI. Northern half of Chester county in PHI's CWA with 6-8" bounded by 1-2" in the northern half of adjacent Lancaster County in CTP's CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Any thoughts as to where we stand now Mag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNAO Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Any news with the EURO for the York Area? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Any thoughts as to where we stand now Mag? GFS/GEFS seem to have warmed somewhat tonight, probably introducing more sleet to the central and more ice in the south. The Euro coming in is mostly the same as 12z but having the 0C dip just a tad east.. having UNV right on the line and the dip being more into the Lower Sus Valley. MDT looks to stay below zero at 850mb for the best precip frame with York/LNS being very close to that 0 line. The NAM and SREFs have really come around today with the more frozen vs freezing outcome, so i'll be curious to see what the outcome of the 03z run looks like tonight. Gonna try to throw a map out later tonight. Roughly speaking for the central counties I think the US 22 corridor from Altoona to Lewistown and all the way to where the it crosses the Susquehanna at Duncannon will be representative of the 6" line on my map. The weekend storm has apparently went back to unicorn status tonight, with the GFS being the best option with a wave of moderate snow rolling through the state as the low rapidly deepens off the NC coast and pushes out northeast and outside the benchmark. GFS ensemble mean and new Euro rolling out shows practically a non event for everyone. Weenies are going to lose their mind, but the setups there for a storm this weekend and we're still 5-6 days out on that one. I've been looking at this storm on models but concentrating on our other two more immediate threats one at a time. We got a significant high impact event that will be striking us tomorrow night into Wednesday, and once that gets through we'll see what we have with the weekend event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Sounds like the sleetfest potential is back in play...sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNAO Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Sounds like the sleetfest potential is back in play...sigh Do you know what the EURO was presenting tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Do you know what the EURO was presenting tonight? MAG pretty much said what you need to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 GFS is moist. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Figures, here comes NAM with not even close to last run. Barely any precip yet this run, last run near .5" on MD line by 6Z. This run barely .1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 That run was terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 PAZ024>026-033>036-041915-/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0002.140205T0000Z-140206T0400Z//O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0004.140205T0000Z-140205T2100Z/CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...HUNTINGDON...MOUNT UNION...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG...CHAMBERSBURG405 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PMEST WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS INEFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTERSTORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.* HAZARD TYPES...THE MAIN THREAT IS HEAVY ACCRETIONS OF ICE FROMFREEZING RAIN...BUT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SLEET AND SNOW AREALSO POSSIBLE.* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF ICE ACCRETION...AS WELLAS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SLEET AND SNOW.* TIMING...SNOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...AND TURNTO SLEET AND THEN FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST FREEZING RAIN ANDSLEET WILL FALL FOR 9 TO 12 HOURS...TAPERING OFF LATE IN THEMORNING. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE MARYLAND BORDER WILL PROBABLYTURN TO PLAIN RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN STARTUP FOR THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS OFCAMBRIA AND SOMERSET COUNTIES.* IMPACTS...THE HEAVY ICE AND SLEET WILL LIKELY RESULT INWIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AS TREES AND POWER LINES BECOMESTRESSED UNDER THE WEIGHT OF THE ICE. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELYDANGEROUS...AND COULD BE SLOWED TO A NEAR STOP OVERNIGHT ANDWEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE ITDIFFICULT TO KEEP THE ROADS PASSABLE.* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 PAZ019-027-028-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-041915-/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0002.140205T0000Z-140206T0400Z//O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0004.140205T0300Z-140205T2100Z/SOUTHERN CENTRE-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATE COLLEGE...LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...LOCK HAVEN...WILLIAMSPORT...LEWISBURG...SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN...BLOOMSBURG...BERWICK...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER405 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PMEST WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECTFROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORMWATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.* HAZARD TYPES...A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET...ALONG WITH ONETO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN. THE MOSTFREEZING RAIN WILL BE CLOSE TO THE MARYLAND BORDER AND THE MOSTSNOW WILL OCCUR FROM STATE COLLEGE TO WILLIAMSPORT AND BLOOMSBURG.* TIMING...SNOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING. THEPRECIPITATION CHANGE TO SLEET IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT ANDTHEN TO FREEZING RAIN. SNOW WILL LAST THE LONGEST NORTH OFROUTE 22. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS AND COULD BESLOWED TO A NEAR STOP AS SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BECOME THEDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPES OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVY FALL RATES OFTHE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT TO KEEP THEROADS PASSABLE. POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO EXPECTED AS THE WEIGHT OFTHE SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN STRESS THE TREES AND POWERLINES.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA405 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-037-041-042-041915-/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0002.140205T0000Z-140206T0400Z//O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0004.140205T0000Z-140206T0000Z/WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARREN...BRADFORD...COUDERSPORT...ST. MARYS...RIDGWAY...EMPORIUM...RENOVO...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD...PHILIPSBURG...MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO...LAPORTE405 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PMEST WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THISEVENING TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGERIN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW.* TIMING...SNOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE THISEVENING...BECOMING HEAVY OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATEAFTERNOON. SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN DURING THEDAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE HEAVY SNOW IS THE MAIN THREAT.* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT. SIGNIFICANT DELAYSIN TRAFFIC MAY RESULT DUE TO SNOW FALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHESPER HOUR OVERNIGHT. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE AS TREES ANDPOWER LINES WILL BE STRESSED UNDER THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 2 to 6....same as Harrisburg in our warning dang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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