Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,415
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Landia_Copeland
    Newest Member
    Landia_Copeland
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
POWERSTROKE

February Banter

Recommended Posts

You guys forget the GFS insisted the event at the end of January was going to be much bigger than it was. The euro was a consistently drier model. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You guys forget the GFS insisted the event at the end of January was going to be much bigger than it was. The euro was a consistently drier model. 

 

At first, the Euro showed a bigger storm than it was (I still have the print outs for reference), even though it tempered the QPF dramatically. But as far as who all was affected, did the GFS not have the best outcome?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What's the Euro going to fold to?  The solution the GFS had at 0Z, 6Z, 12Z, or 18Z? Because they have all been different every day.

 

If the GFS had been showing something consistently and it was different than the Euro then I could understand some saying it may cave to it but the GFS hasn't had the same thing in back to back runs this entire time.  Hard for Euro to cave to the GFS when the GFS doesn't even know what it will show in 6 hours.  IMO

 

Whichever one shows the worst possible outcome is the one some folks are going to believe no matter how consistent other models have been. In the end the GFS might be right because it's like throwing a handful of darts at a dartboard, so one of the solutions has to stick. But until you start seeing other models consistently go the other way, I don't know why folks would be so negative.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Man waiting for the Euro to come out today is like waiting for your dad to come out of the principal's office after having to pick you up early from school for getting asked to leave class for something that wasn't really your fault. It might turn out ok, but you still have this feeling....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At first, the Euro showed a bigger storm than it was (I still have the print outs for reference), even though it tempered the QPF dramatically. But as far as who all was affected, did the GFS not have the best outcome?

For mby using a blend of the Euro/NAM worked well once again. At least for me this winter, this has been the way to go when trying to decipher sensible weather  ;)   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Whichever one shows the worst possible outcome is the one some folks are going to believe no matter how consistent other models have been.

How'd the meeting go? It was a good day to be in one, I'll tell you that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How'd the meeting go? It was a good day to be in one, I'll tell you that.

 

Why? Because one run of the GFS wasn't as good? The last Euro was still great. The GFS might be starting to go all over the place now like it does sometimes. No use in thinking all is lost until the other models start to consistently lose it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why? Because one run of the GFS wasn't as good? The last Euro was still great. The GFS might be starting to go all over the place now like it does sometimes. No use in thinking all is lost until the other models start to consistently lose it.

You're so combative lately. :(

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why? Because one run of the GFS wasn't as good? The last Euro was still great. The GFS might be starting to go all over the place now like it does sometimes. No use in thinking all is lost until the other models start to consistently lose it.

 

 

and if they do, you'll cling to the one that still shows a storm. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

and if they do, you'll cling to the one that still shows a storm. 

 

No, I'd look at all of them for the trend and consider the consistency of them all.

 

People are so doom and gloom because of one or two runs of the GFS instead of looking at the overall consistency of the model runs and waiting to see what the other model runs do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No, I'd look at all of them see what others are saying about them and look for the trend and consider the consistency of them all.

 

 

People are so doom and gloom because of one or two runs of the GFS instead of looking at the overall consistency of the model runs and waiting to see what the other model runs do.

 

FIFY!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

if i can't get snow then i would like to be in a good warm sector with a chase of severe weather and neither seem likely so this setup sucks 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I honestly wouldn't mind taking the Canadian verbatim.  Two major snowstorms in three days isn't bad.  Sure, the "main event" has some mixing issues, but it's likely all frozen and that overrunning event on day 4 is actually a pretty big hit (3-5" for much of NC).

 

It will change, though.  Time for the Euro!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FIFY!

 

You know what I mean. It's like you do a research paper, and you have all this evidence that is consistent with one thing and it looks pretty good, and then you have this one source of evidence that is all over the place, but is still more consistently good than bad. So why would you automatically go with the inconsistent bad evidence just because it's bad and base your conclusion on that?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have some training today from 10:30 to 12:30. Why they schedule this during lunch time is beyond me. But it's also during the next GFS run. They told us to turn off our phones for the training. Yeah, right! I need to follow the GFS play-by-play!

lol You couldn't read it if the maps were in Braille.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you want to check out some ridiculousness, check out the NAVGEM. It shows about a 48-hour event with lows all over the place. It's pretty comical.

Well I'm weenie enough to ask for specifics on any model. How were the temperatures and our wild card GL low?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well I'm weenie enough to ask for specifics on any model. How were the temperatures and our wild card GL low?

 

I'm not sure.  I was just looking at Tropical Tidbits and they don't have temperatures available there.  At one point, it had three lows over the SE. 

 

LOL: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2014020712/navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_25.png

 

Euro meltdown 3..2..1...

 

I don't think that will be necessary.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For mby using a blend of the Euro/NAM worked well once again. At least for me this winter, this has been the way to go when trying to decipher sensible weather   ;)   

 

That's a good point about the NAM. I generally forget about it because the NAM and myself are estranged after years of abuse. I will intentionally skip the NAM and just wait for the RAP most of the time. Maybe I hope the NAM sees me having a blast with the RAP and goes home quietly wishing it hadn't screwed up our relationship while it eats a quart of Cherry Garcia.

 

On the topic of Lord ECMFW-mort, well...

 

I would love for the Euro to be right in these snow solutions. I really would. I have a folder housing crazy snow solution maps from the Euro dating back to January 2011 - like a serial stalker. Most - like 8 out of 10 (generally speaking) - were either wrong, really wrong or "meh". Part of me thinks it earned the "king" title because it nailed a storm at Christmas back in 2010. Which happened in a split flow if I'm not mistaken.

 

My whole point was that it's super easy to say that the Euro is king, and all hail the euro - and likewise for the GFS apologists. But no one can ever give me a list of actual cases or examples apart from the "Sandy" score or the "Polar Vortex" win. Not enough to pledge allegiance to it anyway. They'll throw up a verification score card, as if this were a round of golf. What they don't show is specific instances, or apples to apples (GFS runs four times a day which is ridiculous in itself).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you look at verification scores, the Euro is the best.  That's really not debatable.  I suppose you can debate how it handles east coast cyclogenesis, though, but it is the best performing model overall in both hemispheres and has been for years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Whichever one shows the worst possible outcome is the one some folks are going to believe no matter how consistent other models have been. In the end the GFS might be right because it's like throwing a handful of darts at a dartboard, so one of the solutions has to stick. But until you start seeing other models consistently go the other way, I don't know why folks would be so negative.

You're a living dissertation for a Doctorate in Psychology. Today you're farting rainbows, tomorrow you'll be ready to slash your wrists.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you look at verification scores, the Euro is the best.  That's really not debatable.  I suppose you can debate how it handles east coast cyclogenesis, though, but it is the best performing model overall in both hemispheres and has been for years.

 

All things being equal?

 

And if that's genuinely the case - and I'm willing to believe it is - why is it so difficult for people to give examples?

 

***EDIT***

 

What does this statement in your signature mean:

 

"The Europeans just are not what they used to be. The whole euro zone is a mess. They must have started getting funding from Greece to run the Euro".

 

There are obviously differing perspectives - hell, just keep it on a Met level, between the people who know better than you or me, and there's a ton of disagreement .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×