jmundie Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 For whatever reason - all the euro snow graphics count anything with subfreezing surface temps as snow at 10:1 - regardless of 850 temps. The system sunday night is mostly fz rn sleet, with a quick dusting of snow on top. I'm not even going to talk about the system on day 8. I've got about 150 inches of day 8-10 euro snow this year, none of which has panned out. but taken literally, it looks to be a heavy thump of snow, changing to sleet, then possibly changing back. I'll take it - given the snow drought, but the accum maps are no where near reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 For whatever reason - all the euro snow graphics count anything with subfreezing surface temps as snow at 10:1 - regardless of 850 temps. The system sunday night is mostly fz rn sleet, with a quick dusting of snow on top. I'm not even going to talk about the system on day 8. I've got about 150 inches of day 8-10 euro snow this year, none of which has panned out. but taken literally, it looks to be a heavy thump of snow, changing to sleet, then possibly changing back. I'll take it - given the snow drought, but the accum maps are no where near reasonable. I knew about the WxBell maps' snow bias but I was surprised to see StormVista maps cranking out high snow totals as well. Typically they are a bit more conservative. Regardless, as modeled I think you are right, snow to sleet to slop on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 I will be in Chattanooga for the Super Bowl this weekend, It has snowed in East Tennessee the last 4 trips I have made there in the winter months. So the sudden development of a Sunday night snow/frozen precip chance isn't shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 From the 12z Euro ensemble charts, first number is the deterministic snow total, second number is ensemble mean. These are through hour 240 so all three storms are included. Bristol 7.2/5 Chattanooga 8.3/3 Crossville 11.2/4.2 Knoxville 7.8/3.8 Jackson 9.8/4 Memphis 9.2/3.8 Nashville 13/4.2 Paris 11/5.5 Dyersburg 9.2/5.2 Columbia 12/4 Asheville, NC 16/7 Middlesboro, KY 10/5 Paducah, KY 9.2/7 Tupelo, MS 7/1.2 Huntsville, AL 8.2/2 These are WAY better than the 0z run, I'm really surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Thanks Stove. I am hearing JB is FULLY on board for a northern GA to midatlantic system, and that the Euro control is on board too, though I won't have access to it until later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 From the 12z Euro ensemble charts, first number is the deterministic snow total, second number is ensemble mean. These are through hour 240 so all three storms are included. Bristol 7.2/5 Chattanooga 8.3/3 Crossville 11.2/4.2 Knoxville 7.8/3.8 Jackson 9.8/4 Memphis 9.2/3.8 Nashville 13/4.2 Paris 11/5.5 Dyersburg 9.2/5.2 Columbia 12/4 Asheville, NC 16/7 Middlesboro, KY 10/5 Paducah, KY 9.2/7 Tupelo, MS 7/1.2 Huntsville, AL 8.2/2 These are WAY better than the 0z run, I'm really surprised. Nashville would be brought to a standstill with 13" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Thanks Stove. I am hearing JB is FULLY on board for a northern GA to midatlantic system, and that the Euro control is on board too, though I won't have access to it until later this evening. He is, just showed it to the decision makers here at the University for possible scenarios next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 The insane thing is, the teleconnection forecast scream that we should be warm, if not torching. But the long range the models show single digits and even below 0 making a return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The insane thing is, the teleconnection forecast scream that we should be warm, if not torching. But the long range the models show single digits and even below 0 making a return. Probably thank the -AO we've had recently plus a -EPO during this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 If the modeled scenario comes to pass, the cold is even underestimated for here. So far this year when you see those -20s in the Illinois to Ohio area we have gotten from 5 to -8 in East Tennessee. The models show -20 near Cincy but teens south of 40. That's probably too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That was a wild run of the happy hour GFS. It sure seems like something big is going to go down this month in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben4vols Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 That was a wild run of the happy hour GFS. It sure seems like something big is going to go down this month in the southeast. Yep, patience will be the key over the next 5 days or so. Have to let the 1st couple of storms roll through and see if they set the table for something significant in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 With Robert's track record so far this winter, I sure wouldn't bet against him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 +NAO, trending -PNA, rising AO forecast by CPC ensembles. Going to need some mojo for this one. I still think the time frame around Valentine's Day is the time IF something actually comes together. Then, one more shot of cold late month. I lean towards +2.5 for temps in the Valley for Feb. Snow at or above normal - maybe we get the big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Carvers, I know you are rather pessimistic over the chances heading into the next few weeks. It sounds like you are basing most of it off of the indicies (which admittedly don't look great). I think there are other drivers in the pattern that will overcome. I can see a repeat of November pattern with a jet that sags quite a bit further and plentiful moisture. I think we will have multiple opportunities and the Euro has been consistently showing a great look for next weekend (and remember how well it has done in the past wrt split flow patterns) The battle lines are being drawn.............It will be interesting to see how things play out, no matter the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 +NAO, trending -PNA, rising AO forecast by CPC ensembles. Going to need some mojo for this one. I still think the time frame around Valentine's Day is the time IF something actually comes together. Then, one more shot of cold late month. I lean towards +2.5 for temps in the Valley for Feb. Snow at or above normal - maybe we get the big one. I agree, it looks like we should warm up considerably after mid-month or so but the EPO and WPO look to stay negative and the AO forcasts haven't been very stellar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 0z Euro deterministic/ensemble mean snow through 240: Bristol 4.4/3 Crossville 4.4/3 Chattanooga 2.6/1.1 Knoxville 4.2/1.9 Nashville 5/3.1 Jackson 5.1/3.2 Memphis 5/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben4vols Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 0z Euro deterministic/ensemble mean snow through 240: Bristol 4.4/3 Crossville 4.4/3 Chattanooga 2.6/1.1 Knoxville 4.2/1.9 Nashville 5/3.1 Jackson 5.1/3.2 Memphis 5/3 You have to like the relative consistency the Euro has displayed the last few days (at least regarding the big storm that has been at the end of the run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hey fellas. Big time weather geek here, but don't have much to add, so I'll stay out of the way. Just wondering what next weekends system is showing, if anything, for North Alabama, mainly the Huntsville area? Thanks for all of your hard work guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hey fellas. Big time weather geek here, but don't have much to add, so I'll stay out of the way. Just wondering what next weekends system is showing, if anything, for North Alabama, mainly the Huntsville area? Thanks for all of your hard work guys. Hey! The past several runs of the Euro have shown some decent hits for Huntsville. The latest run showed 3.2 inches of snow with an ensemble mean just under an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The battle zone looks a tad too far north for the weekend storm on this 12z GFS. Still potentially an I-40 north special, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Manages to throw down 2 or 3 inches across the state before the temps rise and mess it all up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I will let the Euro finish its run, but it's simply looking quite a bit warmer through 168. I am looking solely at the 850s when saying the above. It does have an ice to rain setup type of look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I will let the Euro finish its run, but it's simply looking quite a bit warmer through 168. I am looking solely at the 850s when saying the above. It does have an ice to rain setup type of look. WAY too warm for any frozen precip at all. Storm 3 went POOF. Let's see what the ensembles look like. If anyone has access to the control run, if you can post what it shows that would be appreciated. The run ends on a very cold note though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This is a dramatically different solution from the euro. It all started going wrong about hour 120. when the 3rd storm drops into the west. Anyone else feel like the models are getting worse each year rather than better? I have never seen so many fantasy storms in the 8-10 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Just looked through h5 on wunderground maps There were two separate pieces of energy that we've had diving down into the west on prior runs. This run, the second one is really strong and closed and it destroys the pac ridge, flattens out the flow, and the southeast ridge wins the battle. Lets hope that's not the solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 All of the stuff floating around at H5 is bound to cause BIG changes in the runs. What we have going for us most is the very large high that is projected to come down. Maybe with some good timing we can score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben4vols Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 All of the stuff floating around at H5 is bound to cause BIG changes in the runs. What we have going for us most is the very large high that is projected to come down. Maybe with some good timing we can score. Yep, which is why I was impressed with the relative consistent long range Euro but today it finally blew a gasket and we lost our consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'll try to post a detailed tally of the 12z Euro ensembles later when I have some time, but glancing over them I can say that while they did go down from 0z, they aren't plain awful. Generally the means look to be higher than the deterministic across the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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