Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Shawn and Burger that area near the Dakotas on the 48 hr image more consolidated and further south in this run can that help down the road here? Its looking good. A tad bit better than the 06z even.. maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Moisture breaking out in LA @54. Energy is still in the baja and is starting to phase. Not as consolidated as the 6z was. Can it phase get juicer and move east? That's the question. Phasing in the gulf would move the track closer to the coast later correct? Its good to see the storm potential but man its tough being so close to the coast knowing any major NW trend kills you. The GFS was much slower in ejecting the energy over the baja so maybe it will start to shift back to an earlier ejection of that energy in its 12z run today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Moisture breaking out in LA @54. Energy is still in the baja and is starting to phase. Not as consolidated as the 6z was. Can it phase get juicer and move east? That's the question. 12z nam vs 06z gfs 12z nam 06z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Shawn and Burger that area near the Dakotas on the 48 hr image more consolidated and further south in this run can that help down the road here? Depends on when they can link up. I'm ore concerned with our southern piece of energy. That is the key to all of this. Can it stay together and head east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The NAM looks like it might be getting ready to pop a major storm at 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Guys, the GSP disco that has been pasted was written around 2:00 am last night. All offices only update their lond term twice a day. Of course they are going to lean heavily on gfs-euro solution when they are similiar. Also the disco's are written by different mets so there can be some small variations on interprations. Long term forecasts are always going to lean conservitive. That doesn't mean they aren't subject to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 12z nam vs 06z gfs 12z nam 06z gfs A few things of note just flipping between 12z and 6z. The moisture which makes it's away across the SE on the 6z... there looks to be more of it on the 12z at hour 60. There is also more moisture in Mexico vs. 6z. Just observations at it may do nothing on later panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 12z looks a little more N of the 6z, not burying as much, should help it eject better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 looking good so far. Nam is faster, further north with the southern sw and further west with the northern sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The temps are starting to fall in place by 63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Allan just tweeted this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 NAM at 69 looks good to my amateur eye . If the northern stream was just a touch faster the 500mB looks like it would pop a bomb in the GoM/ gulf coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Not sure I like what it's doing with that energy after 60. It moves it further south and kind of weakens it. It get's it's act back together and northern energy is diving down. One thing is for sure it isn't stalling it out over the Baja. Out to 72 it looks better but not as wet at 6z due to the placement of that vort in TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Check out @Wright_Weather's Tweet: https://twitter.com/Wright_Weather/status/427086354028040192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Guys, the GSP disco that has been pasted was written around 2:00 am last night. All offices only update their lond term twice a day. Of course they are going to lean heavily on gfs-euro solution when they are similiar. Also the disco's are written by different mets so there can be some small variations on interprations. Long term forecasts are always going to lean conservitive. That doesn't mean they aren't subject to change. I'm glad you noticed this. The wording itself was a little hesitant imo. The use of the word "idea" was the first inkling. If there is a threat, a real one, they'll pick up on it. There are some pretty sharp tools in that shed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I'm pretty sure at 75 this storm is about to explode over SE texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like @75 that energy in TX is trying to negative with northern energy diving down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 72 hours snow is breaking out along the coast, lower Alabama, and into central GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 75 hours even a little in SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 At 81 snow over northern half of ga and sc. Storm looks stout in the norther GoM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Great run for GA. @84 it looks like it's about to just explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The thing about the 12Z NAM is it has a nice hit for south GA & FL Panhandle with ice... 850s are above 0 where most of the precip is falling and surface temperatures close to freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 81 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 84 hour nam snowing in the northern half of al, ga, and sc. Storm along the gulf coast. Nam says game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Check out the RH fields at 84. Now that is what you want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 And finally.... 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 12z NAM has almost all of GA and SC with over 2 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 This is for areas near Blakely GA (south of Columbus but north of Bainbridge) for Tuesday morning... Like I said... Ice.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Be cautious with this run though folks as it weakened that vort out to our SW. We need that to hold strong if we really want to bomb. If it keeps trending weaker than we are probably in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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