Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 GFS + Euro vs Crap models. In reality that first statement is where we are now. EPS will be ugly, GEFS precip mean can and will be skewed by a couple amped up members, I belive the UKMET tonight.. was off the coast with precip too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Snow maps show a Northern Atlantic fish storm. It'll probably end up a lower half ice storm anyway No one wants that, do they, lol. I think the gfs will go back to the holding bits back in Texas and bringing it out slowly into early next week gambit...maybe by 12z. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 It'll probably end up a lower half ice storm anyway No one wants that, do they, lol. I think the gfs will go back to the holding bits back in Texas and bringing it out slowly into early next week gambit...maybe by 12z. T I was upset about the GFS earlier. Now the Euro doing this.. it's just icing on the cake... I guess we should toss this in banter though. Wish more users were posting. ;/ Some say the canadian handles this pattern better.. but man.. thats a huge hit for us losing the Euro totally to the GFS for tonights run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I was upset about the GFS earlier. Now the Euro doing this.. it's just icing on the cake. I guess we should toss this in banter though. Wish more users were posting. ;/ Everyone is too busy jumping off the cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goduke Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Everyone is too busy jumping off the cliff. Its winter in the south east, you should already be at the bottom of the cliff by the beginning of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Everyone is too busy jumping off the cliff. its over....next year is El Nino....better chance for all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 tonight; the WPC sums this deal up: FARTHER EWD THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ABAND OF WINTRY PCPN NEAR THE SERN/SRN MID ATLC COAST AROUNDMID-WEEK DEPENDING ON THE TRACK/TIMING OF A WRN ATLC FRONTAL WAVE. coastal at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 The 0Z Sat Euro hardly even has any precip. in SAV. I checked Fri's 0Z Euro members and did find 12 of the 51 to be similarly dry through 0Z on 1/30. (I haven't seen Fri's 12Z). In other words, if we think of the op. run as just one of the 51, there was theoretically about a 12/51 chance, not a tiny %, for the next run to be dry. So, there is always the chance that the new run's op. was just taking its random turn to be dry and that the ens. means will still be wet. If instead, the # of dry members were, say, like only 1 or 2, the hope for a wetter next run would be a lot lower. I also checked COLA and 22 hardly had any qpf through 0Z on 1/30 per the Fri 0Z run. Edit: SAV had no 14 of the 51 on the FRI 0Z run with little or no snow. 12 had no snow! That's pretty sizable. 16 for COLA had none. I'll be adding the same analysis for the Fri 12Z soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Could this possibly be similar to previous winters when the models would "lose" the storm only for it to reappear a couple of runs later, or is it more likely that the models are coming to the correct solution? I'm definitely waiting the entire weekend, since everything hasn't been sampled in raobs I don't believe. ...oh and great job guys! It's great staying in the shadows around here, 99% of my questions are asked by others...keep it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 KILM says.... the main story for the extended continues tobe the continuation of the deep and anomalous East Coast trough.This could lead to cyclogenesis off the southeast coast and withimplications for the County Warning Area most notably the coastal areas.Medium range guidance is certainly in agreement on the troughingwith the GFS operational showing a slightly deeper southern streamsystem phasing with a deep shortwave rotating around the mean trougharound midweek. The European model (ecmwf) shows more of a dominant northern streamsystem. It appears the best strategy at this time is to follow wpcgraphics and slowly increase probability of precipitation for Tuesday and Wednesday. Untilboth of the aforementioned features enter the denser upper airnetwork of the lower 48...models will most likely show little run torun consistency. Most of the quantitative precipitation forecast will likely be snow and at least atthis early juncture...ptype issues will not be the question...itwill be an issue of moisture and the advection thereof. Beyond thisthe beat GOES on...cold and dry. Monday shows a slight and briefwarmup ahead of the next Arctic front. NO cliff diving yet folks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 The 0Z Sat Euro hardly even has any precip. in SAV. I checked Fri's 0Z Euro members and did find 12 of the 51 to be similarly dry through 0Z on 1/30. (I haven't seen Fri's 12Z). In other words, if we think of the op. run as just one of the 51, there was theoretically about a 12/51 chance, not a tiny %, for the next run to be dry. So, there is always the chance that the new run's op. was just taking its random turn to be dry and that the ens. means will still be wet. If instead, the # of dry members were, say, like only 1 or 2, the hope for a wetter next run would be a lot lower. I also checked COLA and 22 hardly had any qpf through 0Z on 1/30 per the Fri 0Z run. Edit: SAV had no 14 of the 51 on the FRI 0Z run with little or no snow. 12 had no snow! That's pretty sizable. 16 for COLA had none. I'll be adding the same analysis for the Fri 12Z soon. The 12Z Fri is similar. So, I'm holding onto the idea that the new Euro op. could easily just be a dry hiccup like about a dozen of the 51 ensemble members. I'll check the new ens. mean very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 The 12Z Fri is similar. So, I'm holding onto the idea that the new Euro op. could easily just be a dry hiccup like about a dozen of the 51 ensemble members. I'll check the new ens. mean very soon. Folks, Hot off of the press. The just released 0Z Euro ens. mean is drier than the prior version for most but not dramatically so! More details to follow. That means that the new Euro op. is one of the dry outliers of the 51 members and the op. will very likely be wetter on the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 More details: coastline was 0.50" on prior ens. run. Now is still at healthy 0.45". COLA was ~0.27 and now is still 0.22". Even way over at ATL, it was 0.11" and now I still 0.09". These are not dramatic drops and are all much wetter than the bone dry op. EDIT: Snowfall: RDU/COLA/SAV/CHS were 3/3/3.5/4.5 but are still 2/2/3/3.5! Edit: snow increased from very little to over 1" far S Miss and S LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 It's a long way to go, Larry, and the models haven't been unusually consistant, lol. Except for on the cold. They've said I'd get cold, and I'm definately cold Pretty impressive when low 20's are the norm, and I was 13 last night with cloud cover, and 11 so far tonight. Man, oh, man, what a great winter so far. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 It's a long way to go, Larry, and the models haven't been unusually consistant, lol. Except for on the cold. They've said I'd get cold, and I'm definately cold Pretty impressive when low 20's are the norm, and I was 13 last night with cloud cover, and 11 so far tonight. Man, oh, man, what a great winter so far. T T, It is freezing! Looking more closely, the new ens. is slightly drier only because it ends the precip. earlier. For the first part of the storm, amounts are very similar and are actually heavier in S MS/LA! I'd bet heavily that the 12Z Euro will be sig. wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 People have been psyched out by the two dry 0Z op. runs. Why do I say this? 1. The 0Z GEFS is much wetter than its op and it is wetter than the prior three runs! I did see someone say it was drier. That's not true. It is wetter. 2. The 0Z CMC ens. mean is much wetter than its prior run and is very wet! The coast has 1.25", COLA has 1", and ATL even has 0.40"! 3. The 0Z Euro ens. mean is much wetter than its op. and only slightly drier than its prior run due to ending the precip earlier. It is wetter in S MS/LA. So, I give it a 75% chance that both the 12Z Euro and 12Z GFS will be sig. wetter than the 0Z. 0Z GFS and Euro were major outliers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 06z NAM looks great, southern stream s/w is stronger than 0z. Precip streaming out well ahead into the southeast. Much further west than any other model. Looks like northern and southern streams will phase soon after 84h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 People have been psyched out by the two dry 0Z op. runs. Why do I say this? 1. The 0Z GEFS is much wetter than its op and it is wetter than the prior three runs! I did see someone say it was drier. That's not true. It is wetter. 2. The 0Z CMC ens. mean is much wetter than its prior run and is very wet! The coast has 1.25", COLA has 1", and ATL even has 0.40"! 3. The 0Z Euro ens. mean is much wetter than its op. and only slightly drier than its prior run due to ending the precip earlier. It is wetter in S MS/LA. So, I give it a 75% chance that both the 12Z Euro and 12Z GFS will be sig. wetter than the 0Z. 0Z GFS and Euro were major outliers. Agreed, it seems all models are actually struggling greatly still. 500mb is changing widely every run, ensembles still the way to go...... the NAM looks amazing but it had a different look altogether out west with the southern stream s/w. I think anyone in the southeast still has a shot with this one. Obviously coastal areas are favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 06Z Nam You keep your coastal snow, I'm taking this one :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 It appears the NAM sees an interaction with the northern and southern streams http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nam_06_200_nws_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 That look my friends appears to be a phasing. The 06Z GFS is showing the same look: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_gfs_06_200_nws_loop.php The GFS is slower and more suppressed but it's back in the ballpark at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I hope not. This far out I fear that would miss CAE after its typical northern trend. It appears the NAM sees an interaction with the northern and southern streams http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nam_06_200_nws_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 We're now getting in the range of the short range models. This is the SREF snow probability map Probability of snow > 1" Greater than 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nckhawk Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Thank you Steve - what a treat this has been to watch unfold! Is it reasonable to expect further westward trending at this point in the model game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 After the 00Z runs from last night, I was actually surprised to see some of this. The next 3-4 model runs will tell the tale I think. We have to get close enough in time to get a good upper air sample that the models can use. But we are now in the range of the short range models so I would begin to pay a little extra attention to them. Here's the SREF from the SPC: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_sref_analysis.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Plume chart for Atlanta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The Canadian is also showing a swath of snow across central Georgia, just slightly further south than the NAM and just a little slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Just doing some quick comparing of the GFS and NAM at 84h, one thing stands out. The placement of the trough. As I mentioned in my post last night, I am more interested in that than anything. The Nam has the high pressure center much farther northwest and stronger than the GFS. It is preventing that energy from hanging out in the southwest. That's the look we would want to see for the precip shield to affect more of the southeast. The trade-off is that it would be a warmer system and ratios would be more on the order of 10/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VeronicaCorningstone Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 I'm so thankful to see some positivity on the board this early in the morning There was a lot of cliff-diving last night, but I just can't bring myself to jump yet. Thanks guys for good discussion and explanations of what you are seeing on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The 6z GEFS mean is a huge hit, not sure why the Op is so different. But if Euro says no we got to listen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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