WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 You need new legs on that rocking chair sir. Yeah the precip field was definitely better, despite the track of the low remaining the same, or close to previous runs. I guess my expectations were just higher after seeing the SREF. It's not a nutty run of the NAM that gives us 20-30", nope....but then again the NAM gave me 2-3 feet last year and I ended up with 12". If it gives me 12" here and I end up 7-8, i really would be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Grand slam run...deform band PHL to NYC. The deform band is sitting over us longer than what the 18Z GFS had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Based on the setup, whoever gets in the sweet spot with that deform band is going to easily hit a foot of snow, probably closer to 14-15 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The 4k NAM shows snow into NYC by 13z or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It's still nowhere as good as the GFS or the SREF. The 18z GFS showed pretty much as ideal a look as you could ask for given what is on the playing field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Grand slam run...deform band PHL to NYC. Beautiful model run...with a 0.7+ qpf bullseye over....we all know the answer.....our new snow capital....MONMOUTH COUNTY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 nam only shifted 10-15 miles west with .50 line compared to 18 z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The deform band is sitting over us longer than what the 18Z GFS had. It's relative to location. The 18z GFS was further NW by about 20-30 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Pretty fast though....by midnight Wednesday, the steady snow has pushed east and cleared all of NNJ....Long Island still getting hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Theres a strip of .75-1.00 near TTN and CNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 It's still nowhere as good as the GFS or the SREF. Maybe not for interior locations which is certainly why you seem to have a doubtful tone on your posts today. But for almost everyone else here, this is a great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Grand slam run...deform band PHL to NYC. North west jersey still hurting. Need about a 30 mile shift north west for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 18z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Banding signal is becoming very impressive from Philly to NYC probably including parts of NE NJ. Someone that sits under this band is going to come in with 12"+ totals. Given the forecast soundings from earlier today which showed steep lapse rates, and the best lift within the snow growth region..I wouldn't be shocked to see 1-3"/hour rates in this band with isolated thunder. Worth noting this signal jumped 25+ miles NW since the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It's still nowhere as good as the GFS or the SREF. you should be specific when you make statements like that, maybe not for the exact area you are in, but that deform band means business for many in the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yeah the precip field was definitely better, despite the track of the low remaining the same, or close to previous runs. I guess my expectations were just higher after seeing the SREF. It's better than the 18z run was. The models in general are honing in on this being a significant event, but especially so for around NYC and south/east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Maybe not for interior locations which is certainly why you seem to have a doubtful tone on your posts today. But for almost everyone else here, this is a great run. i've been cautiously optimistic all day. I had pretty much written this one off as a coast only event and yesterday I got pulled back in. Still waiting for that one big run that gives me more confidence. I've been burned a lot in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Not much of a change for interior areas... Still a 2-4, 3-5" event. What I do find strange is how different the SREFs are in comparison to the NAM. Usually the SREFs will follow the previous NAM run and so on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Banding signal is becoming very impressive from Philly to NYC probably including parts of NE NJ. Someone that sits under this band is going to come in with 12"+ totals. Given the forecast soundings from earlier today which showed steep lapse rates, and the best lift within the snow growth region..I wouldn't be shocked to see 1-3"/hour rates in this band with isolated thunder. Worth noting this signal jumped 25+ miles NW since the 18z run. namNE_700_vvel_021.gif Wow. Hate to say it, but for once SW Long Island looks like a good spot to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 what time can we start looking at the HRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 i've been cautiously optimistic all day. I had pretty much written this one off as a coast only event and yesterday I got pulled back in. Still waiting for that one big run that gives me more confidence. I've been burned a lot in these setups. Go check out the high res , you will cheer up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Banding signal is becoming very impressive from Philly to NYC probably including parts of NE NJ. Someone that sits under this band is going to come in with 12"+ totals. Given the forecast soundings from earlier today which showed steep lapse rates, and the best lift within the snow growth region..I wouldn't be shocked to see 1-3"/hour rates in this band with isolated thunder. Worth noting this signal jumped 25+ miles NW since the 18z run. namNE_700_vvel_021.gif Long and short of it: if band shoot north by 30 miles KNYC looking at EASILY 1 Ft. with lolipops of 15 inches with possible thundersnow. Lets not greedy. this time las tnight we would have all been thrilled with half of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The banding could be beautiful if this is correct. Easily 12"+ totals for those within that band which according to many models will be over our region. Really cold storm too so it'll accumulate everywhere right away and no worries about rain/snow line. I prefer getting a few of these type of cold snow events than one temperature borderline (30-33F) KU to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 what time can we start looking at the HRRR? another few hours or so... it has been down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Not much of a change for interior areas... Still a 2-4, 3-5" event. What I do find strange is how different the SREFs are in comparison to the NAM. Usually the SREFs will follow the previous NAM run and so on. I feel good for around 6 inches at my spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 another few hours or so... it has been down Tonight's models like the Nam, gfs, and Euro are probably no longer as relevant with this storm after the 0z runs. Instead it'll be all about the short term mesoscale models and the HRRR has been pretty great this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 what time can we start looking at the HRRR? The HRRR only goes out to 15 hours, so you do the math Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Tonight's models like the Nam, gfs, and Euro are probably no longer as relevant with this storm after the 0z runs. Instead it'll be all about the short term mesoscale models and the HRRR has been pretty great this winter. Yea, HRRR has done well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 SREF 12 hour snow. Hammers all of NNJ including NWNJ Hudson valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The high res 4k is beautiful for all but it's been pretty bad this year, especially inside of 24 hours which should be its bread and butter. Their will be subsidence to the NW of wherever that band sets up. That's a given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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