Guest Imperator Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Pulling ahead of 2013, victory...everyone knows deep down that October will be active for the Gulf and East Coast. Now it's just a waiting game w/some potential homebrew coming up. The human version of the GGEM Model. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big O Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Pulling ahead of 2013, victory...everyone knows deep down that October will be active for the Gulf and East Coast. Now it's just a waiting game w/some potential homebrew coming up. Homebrew? Where? Off the SE coast and/or GOM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Homebrew? Where? Off the SE coast and/or GOM? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014091712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl.html http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014091712/gem_mslp_pcpn_watl.html Red meat setup for October, 500mb Anomaly - GFS Ensembles. When the pattern shifts, it always maintains for months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 The 12z GEFS were loaded with gulf systems and east coast threats. Refreshing to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 The human version of the GGEM Model. LOL Fwiw, the 12Z Euro has a surface low develop SE of FL on 9/25 underneath a high and then it moves slowly NNW from there and still off of the coast 9/27. Some of the moisture associated with this low originates from what is now near 40W in the MDR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Fwiw, the 12Z Euro has a surface low develop SE of FL on 9/25 underneath a high and then it moves slowly NNW from there and still off of the coast 9/27. Some of the moisture associated with this low originates from what is now near 40W in the MDR. The Euro is also still hinting at some Gulf of Mexico action around day 9 or 10, which bolsters what the GFS has been showing as well. Let's see if the 2014 hurricane season goes out with a bang instead of a whimper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Fwiw, the 12Z Euro has a surface low develop SE of FL on 9/25 underneath a high and then it moves slowly NNW from there and still off of the coast 9/27. Some of the moisture associated with this low originates from what is now near 40W in the MDR. Still there on today's 0Z. Further east but seems to be moving west with a pretty good ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Still there on today's 0Z. Further east but seems to be moving west with a pretty good ridge.Looks less defined on the 0z run versus yesterday's 12z run. I'm sure they'll be a ULL associated with the TUTT nearby and kill it like 92L. I'm not optimistic about development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 12z GFS continues to show development before truncation in the SW Caribbean for next week. Interesting set up it shows with the energy crossing Central America from the Pacific to the SW Caribbean. I have my doubts about this though, as the Caribbean has exceptionally high shear this season. The real test will be if it moves up in time or keeps lingering around 180+ hours. The GFS is showing the MJO to enter a favorable phase for the Atlantic, perhaps why it's showing more activity. The ECMWF, isn't showing a favorable MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 12z GFS continues to show development before truncation in the SW Caribbean for next week. Interesting set up it shows with the energy crossing Central America from the Pacific to the SW Caribbean. I have my doubts about this though, as the Caribbean has exceptionally high shear this season. The real test will be if it moves up in time or keeps lingering around 180+ hours. The GFS is showing the MJO to enter a favorable phase for the Atlantic, perhaps why it's showing more activity. The ECMWF, isn't showing a favorable MJO. Kory, good post. 1) I assume you realize that the GFS ensemble mean's MJO predictions have been quite unimpressive in general. Though far from great, the Euro ens has done better overall. Do you agree? Of course, the GEFS will occasionally score a win. 2) Just FYI and fwiw: MJO phase statistics since 1995 for September actually suggest that the percentage of days of Atlantic basin genesis within the circle (about one very five days) has actually been a bit more favorable vs. the overall average (about one every six days). Most favorable has been phase 1: about once every four days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 12Z GFS still gung ho about GOM development in fantasy range, 240 hour Euro beginning to hint at the same. At least we will be in a more favorable synoptic pattern for a while with more of a west coast trough/east coast type setup. I do think that a NW Caribbean/GOM system will develop sometime in later Sept or Oct, I would think that it would be hard to get through the rest of the season without at least one more US landfall threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Kory, good post. 1) I assume you realize that the GFS ensemble mean's MJO predictions have been quite unimpressive in general. Though far from great, the Euro ens has done better overall. Do you agree? Of course, the GEFS will occasionally score a win. 2) Just FYI and fwiw: MJO phase statistics since 1995 for September actually suggest that the percentage of days of Atlantic basin genesis within the circle (about one very five days) has actually been a bit more favorable vs. the overall average (about one every six days). Most favorable has been phase 1: about once every four days. Definitely agree. It seems like the GFS has been forecasting the MJO to hang out in phase 1 much more than it actually did. 12Z GFS still gung ho about GOM development in fantasy range, 240 hour Euro beginning to hint at the same. At least we will be in a more favorable synoptic pattern for a while with more of a west coast trough/east coast type setup. I do think that a NW Caribbean/GOM system will develop sometime in later Sept or Oct, I would think that it would be hard to get through the rest of the season without at least one more US landfall threat. Certainly something going on in the Gulf per the Euro. It coincides quite well with the GFS...showing something down in the SW Caribbean around 192 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 How far back do we have to go to find a year in which there was no occurrence of two or more named cyclones in existence at the same time? 1987? Or did Danielle and Earl have some overlap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 How far back do we have to go to find a year in which there was no occurrence of two or more named cyclones in existence at the same time? 1987? Or did Danielle and Earl have some overlap? They did have an overlap of 6 days from August 25th to August 31 also Fiona formed on August 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 My bad...I meant 1986. Danielle dissipated on 9/10, but Earl formed on 9/10...didn't know if there was an advisory or two of overlap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 Looks like there could be a quick spin up off the SE Coast this weekend. A baroclinically enhanced low is expect to form from a disturbance over the Gulf currently after it crosses Florida. Don't expect much because the feature will be racing NE off the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 Edouard continued the short duration major hurricane theme of recent years. Though Edouard was the first major since Sandy in 2012, both Sandy and Michael in 2012 were category 3 storms for only a brief period of time. The last category 4 hurricanes occurred in 2011 and category 5 hurricanes in 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 GFS continues showing some Caribbean and Gulf actions 180 hours and beyond. The key is that it hasn't been moving up in time much. The Euro backed off on it's 00z run. I'm still hesitant on any development in that area, as shear continues to roar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 Looks like there could be a quick spin up off the SE Coast this weekend. A baroclinically enhanced low is expect to form from a disturbance over the Gulf currently after it crosses Florida. Don't expect much because the feature will be racing NE off the East Coast. An area of low pressure is expected to form off of the southeastern coast of the United States over the weekend. The system is now expected to remain non-tropical (frontal) while it accelerates northeastward a short distance off of the U.S. east coast. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 Edouard continued the short duration major hurricane theme of recent years. Though Edouard was the first major since Sandy in 2012, both Sandy and Michael in 2012 were category 3 storms for only a brief period of time. The last category 4 hurricanes occurred in 2011 and category 5 hurricanes in 2007. I'm not sure you can lump Sandy into that as the reason she weakened was due to landfall. It's not quite the same as the recent theme of unfavorable conditions. One could probably argue that Ernesto was on its way to becoming a major when it made landfall, still intensifying on the way in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 I'm not sure you can lump Sandy into that as the reason she weakened was due to landfall. It's not quite the same as the recent theme of unfavorable conditions. One could probably argue that Ernesto was on its way to becoming a major when it made landfall, still intensifying on the way in. It's all part of the increasing dry pattern where we have only seen 3 brief majors out of 38 named storms since 2012 which is a very low ratio. Just take a look at the major hurricane day data that CSU posts in its year end reviews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 An area of low pressure is expected to form off of the southeastern coast of the United States over the weekend. The system is now expected to remain non-tropical (frontal) while it accelerates northeastward a short distance off of the U.S. east coast. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. That hasn't stopped the 00Z CMC from blowing up a Hatteras to Cape Cod special for at least the second run in a row. CMC has been going nuts with most homebrew lows, so as long as it's not time for the broken clock to be right... ...and I don't think it will. GFS 850 mb progs show weak baroclinicity, and phase diagrams show a neutral system, neither warm nor cold core. Would have had to watch this more closely if it had more time to sit and stew like Diana did back in 1984. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 GFS continues showing some Caribbean and Gulf actions 180 hours and beyond. The key is that it hasn't been moving up in time much. The Euro backed off on it's 00z run. I'm still hesitant on any development in that area, as shear continues to roar. Well the 12z GFS has dumped that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 That hasn't stopped the 00Z CMC from blowing up a Hatteras to Cape Cod special for at least the second run in a row. CMC has been going nuts with most homebrew lows, so as long as it's not time for the broken clock to be right... ...and I don't think it will. GFS 850 mb progs show weak baroclinicity, and phase diagrams show a neutral system, neither warm nor cold core. Would have had to watch this more closely if it had more time to sit and stew like Diana did back in 1984. Done. Today's 12Z GFS has trended heavily toward this being an asymmetric cold core system per FSU cyclone phase space diagrams: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 I think the best indication of the type of season it has been is that here it is Sept 19th and we are still on out first seasonal thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 20, 2014 Share Posted September 20, 2014 I think the best indication of the type of season it has been is that here it is Sept 19th and we are still on out first seasonal thread. A new one could've been started 15 pages ago so that's not the best indicator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted September 20, 2014 Share Posted September 20, 2014 A new one could've been started 15 pages ago so that's not the best indicator. For some reason i thought that 50 pages was the cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 20, 2014 Share Posted September 20, 2014 The 12z GFS, 0z EC, & fri 12z EC all have weak SLP forming on 9/26 below the big e us high. Tropical dev below a stagnant big NE US high is common in late sep/early Oct. Something to monitor esp in GoM? Edit: MJO predicted to be within circle, which has been relatively favorable for sep genesis (1 per 5 days vs 1 per 6 days overall) since 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 20, 2014 Share Posted September 20, 2014 Noticed on WxSouth this morning, they're indicating a Rex Block for late next week and a weakness forming in the southeast. That could serve as an opening for any tropical feature to slowly migrate northward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crownweather Posted September 20, 2014 Share Posted September 20, 2014 The 12Z run of the European model certainly agrees with the idea of a pattern that features large high pressure over the northeast United States leading to potential tropical development over the Gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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