AvantHiatus Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Classic Avila. I would not worry about it, for all we know things are about to light up. At least one other system besides Edouard will probably become potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Classic Avila. I would not worry about it, for all we know things are about to light up. At least one other system besides Edouard will probably become potent.Strong model support now for Edouard to intensify quite a bit, likely peaking as a lower end major in about five days. 93L looks great right now on visible loop. The globals are continuing to struggle with that system. The 12z Weenie model, otherwise known as the GGEM has 93L as a major moving SW towards the Bahamas in ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurrtracker Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 New 12Z HWRF now takes the low to 991mb mid week in the NW Gulf. Hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 New 12Z HWRF now takes the low to 991mb mid week in the NW Gulf. Hmm...I've always found the HWRF being on the high end of intensity guidance. Perhaps the HWRF is picking up on the upper level winds out of the WSW helping to ventilate the storm as it starts taking off ENE.This is of course if it can survive through the current hostile conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 For those that commonly use the Wundermap for model data, has anyone inquired with WU as to why certain model runs seem to go missing for a couple days at a time? This is happening again over the last 2 days. I've sent them some feedback hoping for a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Elongated low in the BoC according to ASCAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Even the Euro hints at this. After having the surface low hit S/C TX on 9/17, it suggests much of the 92-L moisture/energy making a sharp turn toward the ENE as the 500 mb winds near 92L switch from an easterly component to WSW as the long wave 500 mb trough gets further down in the SE US. So, the WSW upper level winds seem to then take much of the moisture/energy ENE late next week even with the intact sfc low no longer existing on the 0z Euro after it hits TX. 1) The 12Z Euro is doing something similar to what I noted above for the 0Z Euro for 92L except it has it hit TX as a weak low on Tue 9/16 instead of Wed. 9/17. A lot of moisture then moves ENEward toward N Gulf coast/SE coast later in the week. 2) The 12Z Euro does little with 93L. Though no early recurve is suggested, it also suggests it would have a hard time making it all of the way across fwiw. That's not surprising because climo says it would be especially hard this late (for CV's) in the season. 3) It still doesn't hit the northern Gulf coast with a surface low around 9/20-2 like 8 of the last 9 GFS runs have done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 For being over land and completely devoid of convection, that surface circulation is very well defined. It should be emerging into the Gulf in about an hour and also is slightly north of model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 It appears it is right on the coast getting ready to emerge into the Gulf near Port Charlotte. It's moving at a nice pace... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located south of the Cape Verde Islands continues to show signs of organization. This system, however, is forecast to move westward or west-northwestward at around 10 mph toward an area unfavorable for development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Shear does appear to be letting up. Squalls are beginning to develop on the northern side of 92L, which has just been hammered by shear. We're slowly starting to see 92L get better organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Welcome to September 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Two invests in the Gulf with an lol satellite picture. Gotta love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 I think we have answered the question and can change the subtitle of this thread now to just "continued famine". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Well, the 12Z GFS has a weaker (tropical or possibly subtropical) surface low hit the NE GoM coast on 9/22 but still causing quite wet conditions for parts of the SE US. That makes 8 of the last 9 runs with a gulf low making landfall on the N/NE GoM coast within 9/20-2. Who knows? If a strong version of this were to verify, this could easily turn out to be the most impactful US tropical system for the rest of the season. This seems to be coming in conjunction with an advancing CCKW per Steve and others. Also, the MJO would be pretty favorable for September genesis per GEFS/Euro ens. projections of phase 1, 2, or just within circle for then. So, late next weekend may turn out to be an interesting time. I'd like to see the Euro come on board for this before getting close to confident in a threat. Nevertheless, the GFS is already telling me to be wary for around 9/20-2. The 18Z gfs had a more strung out and more westward Gulf coast hit ~9/22 but still leading to heavy rain in parts of the SE US. However, the just released 0Z gfs is back to a more concentrated/potent low hitting the NE Gulf coast ~9/21. So, I'm calling it 10 of the last 11 GFS runs showing a GoM coast hit 9/20-2. However, the Euro has still yet to join the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Eeesh...as if the shear wasn't enough, the ULL to 92L's east is entraining dry air into the circulation. Also, recon has been canceled due to the disorganization. Sigh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 This dry air is killing the LLC of 92L. It appears to have become much less defined. Looking at the last several frames of the visible, the LLC definitely appears much more broad. Should continue to trek due west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Who would have thought dry air in the southern Gulf would be a problem in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Edouard would be the perfect storm to squeeze a major out of. No threat to land and nothing but the wide open Atlantic. Unfortunately, intensity models only bring it to strong category one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 @MJVentrice Cue Rocky theme. Entering the ring on the left, big time CCKW to sweep across Atlantic. Watch out for TC development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Edouard would be the perfect storm to squeeze a major out of. No threat to land and nothing but the wide open Atlantic. Unfortunately, intensity models only bring it to strong category one. That would make surfers on the east coast very happy. As it stands a decent swell will be created as the storm will be headed nw for a few days capturing the fetch and sending it to the north east us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 The 18Z gfs had a more strung out and more westward Gulf coast hit ~9/22 but still leading to heavy rain in parts of the SE US. However, the just released 0Z gfs is back to a more concentrated/potent low hitting the NE Gulf coast ~9/21. So, I'm calling it 10 of the last 11 GFS runs showing a GoM coast hit 9/20-2. However, the Euro has still yet to join the GFS. Looks like the Euro favors some unsettled weather in the SW Gulf in the 7-10 day time frame. Nothing organized though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Edouard is following the theme of reaching hurricane status near or north of 25N away from the drier air over the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 The MJO as well as a robust cckw continue to advance eastward toward the Western Atlantic Basin this morning. If we are going to see development and if conditions are favorable, this will likely best our best shot for tropical development during the next 7-10 days. The ensemble mean are insistent on lowering pressures across the SW Caribbean into the Gulf. The global dynamical guidance has been flirting with the idea of some form of TC genesis in the medium range along the monsoonal trough in both the EPAC and the Western Atlantic Basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Edouard is now forecasted to reach major status. Looks like we'll break the streak... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 The 12z ECMWF quickly develops a wave that will emerge off of Africa in about three days. Could be a named system by the end of this week. The 12z GFS is very similar. Just looks to be a stat padder at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 The 12z ECMWF quickly develops a wave that will emerge off of Africa in about three days. Could be a named system by the end of this week. The 12z GFS is very similar. Just looks to be a stat padder at this point.Actually has the remnants of Eduard dropping down in eight days, and lifts the ghost system out of the EATL. Kind of interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Actually has the remnants of Eduard dropping down in eight days, and lifts the ghost system out of the EATL. Kind of interesting to see. Eduard looks like its going to put on its best Nadine impression in the long range ECMWF. NHC is forecasting it to be post-tropical, but it might be one of those ambiguous cases that will depend on the preference of the forecaster as the ECMWF suggests it will remain a warm core disturbance with significant convection and > tropical storm force winds. Lets revisit this issue in about 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Wow, mid September and no postings on this topic in over 24 hours. Must be famine. It looks like shear covers the Atlantic now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Wow, mid September and no postings on this topic in over 24 hours. Must be famine. It looks like shear covers the Atlantic now. Pulling ahead of 2013, victory...everyone knows deep down that October will be active for the Gulf and East Coast. Now it's just a waiting game w/some potential homebrew coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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