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January 20-? Cold snap


Ottawa Blizzard

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I saw something awesome while I was driving south on M-10 towards downtown today...Ice fog maybe? It made everything all fuzzy and hazy and there was this sundog looking half rainbow that was insanely vivid. I was just past I-94 and it was shining down right over top of the Penobscot building.

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I got -19.5F right now..not sure what the low was since mine wasn't reset....it didn't get past last cold blasts -22.2F...

 

Looks like both the bluff an airport show -17F, so i might be running a little cold.  Looks like temps held up most the night until just the past couple of hours when the winds went calm, which is where we are at right now judging by the looks out the frost windows. 

 

Nice morning. 

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Tough to say whether this January will end up colder than Jan 2009 at YYZ. Next 3 days look to get us there, but the SW flow ahead of that clipper on Friday may spoil the party by a tenth of a degree or two.

Wouldn't that be something if we ended up with only the coldest January in five years after all the freaking out  in the general public and media. People have such short memories when it comes to the weather.

 

Still, it may end up the coldest winter in 20 years, depending on how February turns out given December this year was colder than that of 2002, 2003 or 2008.

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Wouldn't that be something if we ended up with only the coldest January in five years after all the freaking out  in the general public and media. People have such short memories when it comes to the weather.

 

Still, it may end up the coldest winter in 20 years, depending on how February turns out given December this year was colder than that of 2002, 2003 or 2008.

 

yup

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Perfect calm is always better than low thicknesses but 5-7 mph wind over snow cover, so might expect that some places will do better for their Wed morning low than overnight tonight, even if cirrus is overspreading by dawn. Surface ridge axis for the win on extreme lows, w MN to central IA then into IL-IN but here it's a fight between deeper snow cover and better radiation so the pattern will not continue to hug the ridge line so much.

 

Models probably need a regional heat island escape and regional mixing boost of 3-4 F deg, they are tending to show what lows would have been in 19th century before any large urbanization, there's a secondary mixing effect outside of actual urban heat islands because some of that anomalous warmth has to escape then it mixes into the ambient surroundings. I also feel that deeper snow cover radiates more effectively, so that colder pools form over lake effect snow fields if the air is not moving over the lake that produced them. This is how I managed to get a -41 reading in Jan 76, there was over a foot of snow from previous two days of lake effect, a few nights before over half that snow pack, -35.

Roger, I bottomed out at about -2f, or -18.8c this morning, likely due to the strong winds. What are your thoughts for the Toronto suburbs tonight? Looks to be windy again, unfortunately.

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-12 at MKE and RAC. Weak.

Might get a few more chances:

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2014012800_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png

 

Southern end of L Michigan has a nice sheet of ice around it...  Maybe walk from Milwaukee to the beautiful city of Gary, Indiana? 

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Might get a few more chances:

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2014012800_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png

 

Southern end of L Michigan has a nice sheet of ice around it...  Maybe walk from Milwaukee to the beautiful city of Gary, Indiana? 

 

Yup, I don't think we're done with the cold quite yet, cold enough to break records? That remains to be seen... 

 

I've never seen so much ice on the lake before, its pretty cool.

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LOT chopped the WC warning out and placed an advisory only for the northern areas.

 

Up to -2°. Should reach 0° by 12:30 or so.

 

I like the last sentence.

 

 

.DISCUSSION...
1130 AM CST

HAVE CONVERTED THE WIND CHILL WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL WED
MORNING TO A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR FORECAST WIND CHILL VALUES
OF -20 TO -25...WITH -25 TO -30 IN PARTS OF MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL
IL.

A BITTERLY COLD MORNING WITH NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGIT AIR
TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH -19 AT OUR COOP
OBSERVER IN MARENGO OBSERVING THE COLDEST. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST KEEPING A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA. WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED AND SHOULD SEE THAT PERSIST
INTO AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL OFFSET THAT MORE SO
ALLOWING WIND CHILLS TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB. WITH WIND CHILL READINGS
ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA /-30/ ALREADY AND TEMPERATURES NOT FORECAST
TO DROP ANYWHERE NEAR AS QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THEY DID LAST
NIGHT...THUS ALLOWING WIND CHILLS MORE OF -20 TO -28...HAVE GONE
AHEAD WITH THE ADVISORY.

ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO BUMP UP TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO...WITH A
FEW DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE THE LACK OF SNOW COVER
APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCING TEMPS. AT 11 AM IT WAS 3 IN PONTIAC...4
IN LACON...AND 7 IN PEORIA AND CHAMPAIGN ALREADY. THAT WARMTH
/ODD WE CALL THAT WARMTH NOW/
SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

 

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