Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Yeah again the GFS is really meh with this. Actually looks like several inches possible for PF area. AIT This first threat is not for us...N by NW. Nice week for SNE'rs to get stuff done before Act 2 begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 AIT This first threat is not for us...N by NW. Nice week for SNE'rs to get stuff done before Act 2 begins. It's looked that way all along, but sometimes you have to respect strong s/w's diving SE. Still could give interior SNE something I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Coating to an inch for some. Maybe Forky farts and someone gets 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Let's keep an eye on this. i just have a gut feeling about for the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Let's keep an eye on this. i just have a gut feeling about for the interior Agree interior me and nh should do ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Agree interior me and nh should do ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Agree interior me and nh should do ok. Wed nite looks very intriguing to me for elevated areas..Maybe a 1-3 inch deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 The last several cycles of ... every model type I have seen demoed too much deconstructive wave interference to call this a "threat" There is a long wave with a mean position near 80W, which is normally good for storm enthusiasm for our neck of the woods. However ... there is also an over-abundance of diving S/W out of western Canada taking place, too fast for any one of them to have a chance operate on the circulation. Still ... a period of snow and/or wintry precipitation should take place for a few or many -- just not sure how threatening it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Euro op saying not so fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 This looks like a classic euro bias run, but it is real interesting for the SE US...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Yeah I think we toss this. It somehow finds a way to cutoff a low in this progressive pattern. Seems weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Euro op saying not so fast. Just saw it, where the heck did this come from lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 This looks like a classic euro bias run, but it is real interesting for the SE US...lol. It is inside of D4, though, for the initial trough amplifying into the western TV region -- It seems to be compensating for a hostile wave-spacing by drilling for oil... but it's still there. You can see at D4 how it "pinches" the dynamics between the west Atlantic ridge wall, and the diving heights coming into the GL region.. That's not a favorable wave interference there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Just saw it, where the heck did this come from lol... Now it tries to get something going near the Gulf at hr 120. That storm looks bizarre on the euro. It digs that energy really far south. That is a head scratcher to me. We'll see what the ensembles do..but not sure I buy that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 It is inside of D4, though, for the initial trough amplifying into the western TV region -- It seems to be compensating for a hostile wave-spacing by drilling for oil... I suppose that block to the east near Bermuda is allowing it to drill further south, but just looked like the euro digging a bit too much. We'll find out soon..perhaps removing the digging aggressiveness yields a nice event..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Why did Ginx say next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 It is inside of D4, though, for the initial trough amplifying into the western TV region -- It seems to be compensating for a hostile wave-spacing by drilling for oil... but it's still there. You can see at D4 how it "pinches" the dynamics between the west Atlantic ridge wall, and the diving heights coming into the GL region.. That's not a favorable wave interference there... Yeah I actually just referenced that. I noticed that block yesterday, but certainly didn't expect that euro solution. I'm a little skeptical of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 This is a bit of a weenie run..the total opposite of the dry GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I suppose that block to the east near Bermuda is allowing it to drill further south, but just looked like the euro digging a bit too much. We'll find out soon..perhaps removing the digging aggressiveness yields a nice event..lol. It's definitely a dubious appeal... The Euro tends to have too much meridional structure to its medium ranges, as an on-going modeling performance (as you have already noted...), but D4 is ...heh, a bit inside that range, and typically the Euro ramps up its kingly status fairly quickly passing through that temporal boundary. But, just on the surface, in a fast flow with larger than life gradients (a seasonal affliction for this particular winter thus far...) maybe this GFS run is a better fit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Yeah I actually just referenced that. I noticed that block yesterday, but certainly didn't expect that euro solution. I'm a little skeptical of that. LOL , yeah I saw, but I thought it would be confusing if I said I edited the original statement. ...yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 LOL , yeah I saw, but I thought it would be confusing if I said I edited the original statement. ...yeah Yeah you would think the GFS fits the picture here, but that ridge near Bermuda is interesting. The Canadian is sort of a weak version of the euro op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Gosh, and look at the 144 hour negative tilted screamer rippin' N along the EC? That thing could bomb ...I bet that goes nutty as it lifts N of our lat/lon. You know ... it's kind of maddening for storm geese ; this could be a fantastically dynamical week, but because of idiosyncratic nuance in stream deconstruction ... nothing happens sensible. Ha ha. what a ram rod job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Yeah I think we toss this. It somehow finds a way to cutoff a low in this progressive pattern. Seems weird. Several models, esp the Euro, have been alternatively cutting this thing off in the SE or mid-Atl for several days. Ensembles have also been roughly clustering some wrapped up SE solutions with some sheared out weak NE coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Knock knock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Knock knock.Next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Several models, esp the Euro, have been alternatively cutting this thing off in the SE or mid-Atl for several days. Ensembles have also been roughly clustering some wrapped up SE solutions with some sheared out weak NE coastals. This morning I was thinking if this would be one of those anafrontal bands of mid level frontogenesis. Kind of had that look. Euro definitely went a different route, we'll see how the ensembles look. If you look at the Canadian...I can't totally argue with something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Next?yeah I think the Wed Thursday threat is now Fri Sat, then knock knock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Why did Ginx say next?The Euro has next to nothing for you for this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 The Euro has next to nothing for you for this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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