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Found 17 results

  1. I added lollis of 24"+ to the map because I seriously think the storm hits the benchmark and pushes the snowfall further west, Hartford, CT to Boston, MA gets 12-24" of snow overall with less on the Cape and Nantucket due to more rain forecasted, this storm came west congrats people along and west of I95 corridor
  2. Today all options remain on the proverbial table. Anything from an epic blizzard to a weak coastal is in store for this weekend. NWS Taunton has a 1in10 chance snow map for 4" in my neighborhood, and a 1% chance at seeing 8"+ this weekend. Let's discuss this major potential?
  3. USCAPEWEATHERAF

    **00z Model update**

    00z models show some moving southeastward with the snow threat this weekend and the GFS and CMC bring a coastal nor'easter threat and clipper threat to the Northeast next week, I will have an update after I wake up in the morning and then again after the 12z runs.
  4. Most of the afternoon and late morning model guidance has trended towards a much larger and more severe event with the exception being the GFS, while the GFS produces over 8" of snow for the Cape, it also is weaker with the storm for Saturday. We are less than 72 hours away from the first impacts of this winter storm, mix with rain is possible on the MA coastline, including the islands of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard. Winter storm watches could be issued as soon as Thursday afternoon from Taunton and as early as tonight for the Deep Southern states of LA, TX, GA, FL, and NC and SC. This storm reminds me of the 2004 Boxing Day Snowstorm, December 26-27th 2004
  5. Most of the afternoon and late morning model guidance has trended towards a much larger and more severe event with the exception being the GFS, while the GFS produces over 8" of snow for the Cape, it also is weaker with the storm for Saturday. We are less than 72 hours away from the first impacts of this winter storm, mix with rain is possible on the MA coastline, including the islands of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard. Winter storm watches could be issued as soon as Thursday afternoon from Taunton and as early as tonight for the Deep Southern states of LA, TX, GA, FL, and NC and SC. This storm reminds me of the 2004 Boxing Day Snowstorm, December 26-27th 2004
  6. March 11th 2017 605pm entry: Very cold air mass overhead the Northeastern US tonight. temperatures for Sunday morning lows are around 10-12F over the Cape. Forecasted temperatures won't break 25 the next two days Sunday and Monday. This arctic air mass will be the reason we can expect a snowstorm to occur some time Monday night through Wednesday morning depending upon if the storm slows down at all, right now the 12z and 18z runs today show a progressive but easterly track with less phasing, although I don't think this is about a less of a phase. While common knowledge dictates that the stronger the phase the further west the storm tracks is correct most of the time, the 18z GFS and NAM are both east of the 12z runs positions, and therefore show a faster transfer of energy between the clipper (primary) low and the coastal storm that takes over earlier on the latest guidance. Given nature of the H5 trough, this should allow the coastal storm to intensify rapidly and be in the lower 970mb range, rather than the higher 988mb range the GFS has. Therefore winds should gust between 70-90mph, 70mph if the GFS is right or 90mph if the stronger solutions are correct. Remember the faster the transfer of energy between the primary OH Valley low and the coastal low off the coast of SC occurs, then the further eastward it will travel, I don't expect a far east track, but one down the middle of today's guidance, over the benchmark, east of ACK and CHH of around 970-980mb low pressure center producing a few feet of snow from DC to BOS with NYC to BOS receiving the mega amount of snowfall of around 24-30" of snow. Coastal New England including Cape Cod should remain all snow and receive up to 34" of snow. Those are my thoughts right now, subject to change.
  7. Within the next seven days the period of weather we should get is rather warm, mild and wet. However after day 7 there is a clipper/great lakes low pressure system that is expected to push a cold front through the region on the 27-28th of December. Weather weenies should start rejoicing because as the GFS op and ensembles have been showing is a negative PNA regime we are in now will turn over towards a positive regime in the last day of December through early January period. Also with that +PNA regime we have a -EPO regime which means ridging in the EPO region. This is likely great news as the -30C to -40C type of air gathering in northwest Canada can come raging down into the Great Lakes and Northeastern US. Why am I more confident in this happening? Simply the teleconnections support it. PNA going positive before New Year's Day, the EPO going negative after the 31st and the Arctic Oscillation going negative after New Year's Day. This signal has been consistent the last few days, and when a signal becomes consistent in the models, so will the snow chances. We simply have a more amplified pattern with really no sign of a SE ridge in the 7+ day range and really after day 9 we get into the cold and stormy part of the forecast discussion. GFS has at least three to four storms lined up after the tenth day. Now the CMC or GEM 00z run shows a clipper diving out of Canada and producing a snowstorm from MN to MI to BUF. My guess is that it will start showing a mega tilt towards negative as the trough nears the East Coast and allow cyclogenesis to really crank up. GFS right now handles this bundle of energy much differently, which is why it is ten days out, not one day. The images below from top to bottom are the 00z GFS DEC 22nd 2015 240 h5 prog showing the energy a little east of the CMC at the same hour, image below: and then the +PNA in the ensembles and operational runs. SO folks we have a period to look forward to and it isn't just 11-15 days away, its 8 days away.
  8. 26/20 with a gentle wind as of 8 PM. Snow is around from today's event in patches as some melted during the day today under the Fab Feb sun angle (despite overcast skies). The high today was 27.
  9. Figured I would start a thread and try to bring some good juju. My forecast went from partly cloudy to a 70 percent chance of snow! Most models show a rapidly deepening low close enough to give us some good snow!
  10. NorEastermass128

    Jan. 18th "Threat" Observations

    Starting an obs thread for this one. 29.5F Dimly lit moon visible Thinking some flakes to an inch here. More just across the highway.
  11. jamesnichols1989

    January 18-19th "Threat"

    EURO and 18z GFS have a snowstorm intensifying up the coast sometime in the Friday and Saturday timeframe for New England. This is the storm following the two frontal waves during the mid week time frame. There is a break in between the second and third waves and northern stream disturbances. There is the potential for a bigger storm as this is the bigger of the three shortwaves in question. So here is to another snow event.
  12. jamesnichols1989

    Jan 15-17th 2014 "Threat"

    The EURO and GGEM are offshore with the surface low as it redevelops east of Cape May, NJ and heads Northeastward then northward over the BM and east of CHH. GFS is much further west with the surface low track bringing rain over the coastal plain from PVD to BOS and points south and east. Models are waffling and we are within 84 hours of the clipper entering the United States. COld air bleeds eastward after the 15th cutter and a second shortwave amplifies the trough over the eastern US allowing storm on the coast.
  13. weathafella

    Jan 2-3 Big Snow Threat , Part 3

    Srefs bumped up a bit. All of sne 0.75. 1.00 inside 128 to PVD. 1.25 from just south of BOS to Wareham on east. 0.5+ through most of NNE down to philly.
  14. NorEastermass128

    12/17 Clipper Observations

    Didn't see a thread for this yet. I figure snow starts late morning for western areas. After noontime for eastern areas. 14.4F / clear & calm
  15. jamesnichols1989

    December 10th/11th winter storm threat

    00z NAM come in much more robust and further northwest with the precip shield for the december 10-11th 2013 event. Frontal wave actually allowed to strengthen underneath a strengthening region of PVA. Lift should be insane for a time if the NAM is correct. Enjoy, this is a better shot at something than the 9th event.
  16. Damage In Tolland

    Memorial Day Weekend Coastal/Snow

    As we get close in on another hot season,,let's get some discussion going on he holiday weekend wx. The day 10 Euro looks like it might be a bit ugly as we get into that weekend. What are ensembles saying, and what are thoughts?
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