Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

January 3-6th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 985
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I remember that storm well. I remember it snowed heavily the night of the 16th-17th. The L.A. earthquake was the morning of the 17th. Also remember the cold blast that followed. I couldn't open my front door as the lock was frozen. Had to wait for my Dad to get home to unlock it.

I remember Environment Canada only calling for 2-3" for Toronto on that Sunday afternoon (16th). Later that evening, while it was snowing, EC had to upgrade its amounts and issue a Snow Advisory or Winter Weather Advisory (they don't issue those anymore).

Tonight's 00z GFS took a big step towards the GGEM and Euro.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I remember Environment Canada only calling for 2-3" for Toronto on that Sunday afternoon (16th). Later that evening, while it was snowing, EC had to upgrade its amounts and issue a Snow Advisory or Winter Weather Advisory (they don't issue those anymore).

Tonight's 00z GFS took a big step towards the GGEM and Euro.

The morning of the 16th was one of the coldest mornings ever recorded at YYZ. -31 Celsius without the wind.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I remember Environment Canada only calling for 2-3" for Toronto on that Sunday afternoon (16th). Later that evening, while it was snowing, EC had to upgrade its amounts and issue a Snow Advisory or Winter Weather Advisory (they don't issue those anymore).

Tonight's 00z GFS took a big step towards the GGEM and Euro.

 

Cool info. I didn't know Ontario region ever issued advisories. Wish they still did.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The shift west is pretty significant. SLP at 09z Monday shifted from near BOS to ALB in 1 run. PV lobe digging more which is in line with trends observed on the euro... models headed towards more phasing.

 

It has slowly emerged from its slumber and showcased what models have been painting in recent days. Now this could go many ways. 

 

1) If the PV doesnt dig as deeply and we dont see any phase, the S/W wave will just drift off to Sea or merge with the weak frontal boundary. 

2) A partial phase similar to what the GGEM depicted earlier and this current GFS run, would translate to moderate snows across the region. 

3) If we see a full blown phase like what the Euro showed for about 3-4 runs in a row like 2 days ago, then its worth discussing as it could be something big.

 

I personally feel the models are showing too much WAA moving up north as odds are against it. Timing is key with this. 

 

Behind it, were going to witness a nation wide cold outbreak as the PV slips south. Coldest air mass in years for many regions. Wouldn't be surprised if YYZ drops to -24 to -28C at night. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wouldn't be surprised at all if we end up needing a warning for at least part of the LOT CWA

Sent from my SCH-I535

 

You think the storm is going to nudge itself that far west?

Well not a guarantee but the 12z Euro was part of the way there with stronger ridging ahead and earlier negative tilt of the trough. Taken verbatim, the Euro would likely be a warning event for the southeast 1/3 of the cwa. The forecaster who wrote the extended portion of the AFD this morning or yesterday morning is concerned about a farther west track.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't see this thing going to far north with the strength of the PV but no doubt this looks like a good hit for many people.

 

 

I think the position of that is key.  If it's farther west and there's an earlier phase with the wave swinging around it, then this has the potential to blow up into something big and track farther west.  Whether that happens or whether there's a later phase remains to be seen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't see this thing going to far north with the strength of the PV but no doubt this looks like a good hit for many people.

I could, the PV is strong but it further West than the current system, if the southern stream slows just a hair, this could really phase into a strong system.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes it is. New GGEM has 998mb low around Syracuse. Looks like a solid hit here and back through IN/IL/OH but don't quote me as those GGEM black and white charts are hard to read lol.

 

Yeah its a pretty good hit across many regions just south of SE Michigan through the Ohio Valley, parts of IL and SONT. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...