bluewave Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Time to go ice fishing at International Falls around day 10. I think it's first Euro run of season to show -36C over any part of U.S. The GFS has the same general idea of -30C or lower crossing border in Upper Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The latest discussion from Upton says 1of 2 things are going to happen with the storm on Saturday they say either inland will get around 1" of snow with snow changing to rain from east to west. Or inland will receive a plowable snow with a wintry mix changing to rain elsewhere. .. either way this is definitely going to be a non event for the city east.... They also talk about the possible midweek storm and how that one might be snow inland and rain changing to snow elsewhere because the low is too close to the coast so that might also be a non event for the city east as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Mount holly .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE AXIS OF A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE IT DE-AMPLIFIES BEFORE REACHING THE COAST LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS LIMITED, SO ANY SNOW ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIGHT, WITH A COATING TO AROUND ONE INCH EXPECTED WHEREVER SNOW DOES INDEED OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN PA AND NORTHWEST NJ. SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL IMPROVE TO AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THEN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AS IT AMPLIFIES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT IN TIME, AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW MIGHT BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES ZONAL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A SURFACE FRONT ORIENTED WEST TO EAST IN SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH LATE MONDAY AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST, BUT CURRENT MODEL RUNS SEEM TO KEEP THE CENTER OF THIS LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EJECT OFF THE COAST WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR CWA. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT, SO WE/LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS WE GET CLOSE TO THE EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I should have just posted Upton's but I'm on a phone and im not sure how to do it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The latest discussion from Upton says 1of 2 things are going to happen with the storm on Saturday they say either inland will get around 1" of snow with snow changing to rain from east to west. Or inland will receive a plowable snow with a wintry mix changing to rain elsewhere. .. either way this is definitely going to be a non event for the city east.... They also talk about the possible midweek storm and how that one might be snow inland and rain changing to snow elsewhere because the low is too close to the coast so that might also be a non event for the city east as well.... That would fit with December here on li. In this case unfortunately the trend is you're Freind . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwarn Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER TWO SHORTWAVES REMAIN RELATIVELYPHASED LIKE THE CMC AND ECMWF OR ARE SLIGHTLY STAGGERED LIKE THENAM AND GFS. THE FORMER SOLUTION BRINGS THE LIKELIHOOD OF APLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES...WHILE THE LATTER WOULD BRINGMAYBE UP TO AN INCH BEFORE THE SNOW CHANGES TO RAIN FROM E TO WDURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. EITHER SOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE - FOR NOWAM GOING WITH A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS AS ARESULT...USING A BLEND OF NAM AND ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES...AND ABLEND OF ALL QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Yesterday Bluewave posted the 500 MB FEB JMA monthly this is its 2M temps for the month . The JMA has been spot on all winter .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Yesterday Bluewave posted the 500 MB FEB JMA monthly this is its 2M temps for the month . The JMA has been spot on all winter .... February has a bit of a retrogression of the EPO ridge axis back closer to the Bering Sea. Looks like GEFS are moving that way after the Arctic blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 February has a bit of a retrogression of the EPO ridge axis back closer to the Bering Sea. post-564-0-14465800-1389876898.png Looks like we still keep the cross polar flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Looks like we still keep the cross polar flow Canada would stay cold, but the exact placement of the ridge will determine whether the coldest readings hang back along the Rockies to Upper Midwest like we saw in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Does anyone think NYC has a shot of getting down to 0F with the upcoming cold snap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Check out how bullish the Euro ensembles are at day 10 with the Arctic shot right in line with the OP. That may be the smallest spread between the ensembles and OP that you are going to see from 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Canada would stay cold, but the exact placement of the ridge will determine whether the coldest readings hang back along the Rockies to Upper Midwest like we saw in December. But remember Dec was cold because the source region ( thats is arctic air ) , that 1 above was a 70 spot that added 30 degrees in 1 day and screwed the month otherwise without those few days we finish below . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Boy it's quiet in here, even with the 12z Gfs showing a snowstorm at 372 hrs....wolf thinks this is conversation worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 As a homeowner, the most upsetting thing about this upcoming pattern will be my heating bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 As a homeowner, the most upsetting thing about this upcoming pattern will be my heating bills. I have oil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 That would fit with December here on li. In this case unfortunately the trend is you're Freind . Thats exactly what i was thinking.. just really sucks if it continues.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I have oil me too So wolf...we went from arguing r/s line to NOTHING. The euro has been awful. I would be wiling to bet you a beer that this pattern will not yield a snow event 8" or greater...this has the 1980's decade written all over it = which means now through 2/1/14. 8" at NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 me too So wolf...we went from arguing r/s line to NOTHING. The euro has been awful. I would be wiling to bet you a beer that this pattern will not yield a snow event 8" or greater...this has the 1980's decade written all over it = which means now through 2/1/14. 8" at NYC Pattern could run through Feb 10 as per CFSV2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Pattern could run through Feb 10 as per CFSV2 15 days is enough time....considering its been a bad pattern for the last 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 15 days is enough time....considering its been a bad pattern for the last 10 days Tell you what I will bet you by FEB 10 we get a storm of 6 inches or greater if I lose I will send 500 $ to you`re favorite charity If I win you have to start a thread apologizing for whining Deal ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Whining is to harsh , you can apologize for not believing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 me too So wolf...we went from arguing r/s line to NOTHING. The euro has been awful. I would be wiling to bet you a beer that this pattern will not yield a snow event 8" or greater...this has the 1980's decade written all over it = which means now through 2/1/14. 8" at NYC So you're saying possibly no more than 8 in. of snow thru the end of the month? Thats fine with me..even just a few inches with the impressive cold would be great. Is everyone only happy if we get 20 in. or more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 This is not a sports betting site, let's wait a few days and see where things go. Betting on a favorable pattern is stupid, even the best patterns don't always produce snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 This is not a sports betting site, let's wait a few days and see where things go. Betting on a favorable pattern is stupid, even the best patterns don't always produce snow. No one is betting , its all in good fun dude . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Boy it's quiet in here, even with the 12z Gfs showing a snowstorm at 372 hrs....wolf thinks this is conversation worthy. You bringing everyone back with you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 No one is betting , its all in good fun dude .This pattern will most likely produce, you'll probably keep Ace's beer in a snow bank to keep it cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 This pattern will most likely produce, you'll probably keep Ace's beer in a snow bank to keep it cold I think there are multiple events on there way , its just a matter of lining the trough axis up . So it could be d 5 , 8 , 11 , 15 etc , just don't know which one of these that comes through the slot comes NE . And maybe in the process you get a temp block . Cold a lock , Snow never a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Tell you what I will bet you by FEB 10 we get a storm of 6 inches or greater if I lose I will send 500 $ to you`re favorite charity ( no joke ) . If I win you have to start a thread apologizing for whining Deal ? i dont need you to spend $500....plus Feb 10 is basically 4 weeks. Do the odds favor you even in a bad pattern? I am referring to the ogling of the euro and gfs ensembles through month end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 So you're saying possibly no more than 8 in. of snow thru the end of the month? Thats fine with me..even just a few inches with the impressive cold would be great. Is everyone only happy if we get 20 in. or more? i said an individual event of 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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