Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 NAM BUFKIT at YYZ is completely below freezing tomorrow (however, like T4 mentioned, right along the lake may have a few hours above freezing). Regarding the second part of your post...let's go in order: 1. Ice occurs when temperatures aloft are warm, not cold. 2. You suspected that the precipitation is going to be mostly snow. I don't see any signs of that. Oh my bad I must have gotten the atmospheric and surface layers mixed up. But yes, I suspected it would be mostly frozen precip and that would be in the form of either snow, ice or freezing rain than liquid (plain rain). Downtown Toronto may see some rain showers in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Anthony Farnell also tweeting 21mm for Waterloo Region with 15mm into Peel Region pic.twitter.com/kBehrsVP5l Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Took quick look at 18z Nam COBB for yyz. Has an initial 0.5-1" of snow tonight before a transition to a long period of ZR throughout the entire day tomorrow. Ends up with ~0.6" of ice... and thats before the main show which models have been consistently showing upwards of 0.6" of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Kind of skeptical on the freezing rain potential over the next 24hrs from MKE south. The GFS would probably gives us decent ice accumulation with its lower sfc temperatures overnight but looks like its under doing dew points currently, especially with the NE wind off the lake. The NAM and other hires models seem to have a better handle on temps and basically keep us at or above freezing. Areas inland look good however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Kind of skeptical on the freezing rain potential over the next 24hrs from MKE south. The GFS would probably gives us decent ice accumulation with its lower sfc temperatures overnight but looks like its under doing dew points currently, especially with the NE wind off the lake. The NAM and other hires models seem to have a better handle on temps and basically keep us at or above freezing. Areas inland look good however. Going to be very close. 29-30° dewpoints at RAC, ENW, and UGN. I would say within 3 miles of the lake it is up in the air regarding ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Took quick look at 18z Nam COBB for yyz. Has an initial 0.5-1" of snow tonight before a transition to a long period of ZR throughout the entire day tomorrow. Ends up with ~0.6" of ice... and thats before the main show which models have been consistently showing upwards of 0.6" of ZR. Saw that. And then we have the GFS which is almost all rain (cursory look but I'm fairly confident). I'm going with sfc obs and upper air meso-analysis from the SPC. Fudge the models. YYZ down another 0.2 degree to 1.9c at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Going to be very close. 29-30° dewpoints at RAC, ENW, and UGN. I would say within 3 miles of the lake it is up in the air regarding ZR. Its certainty going to start out as rain, trying to pin-point change over is the difficult part. Friday could be interesting as some slightly colder air filters in and models hinting at light precipitation throughout the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Saw that. And then we have the GFS which is almost all rain (cursory look but I'm fairly confident). I'm going with sfc obs and upper air meso-analysis from the SPC. Fudge the models. YYZ down another 0.2 degree to 1.9c at 5pm. Agree. Thinks that makes the most sense now along with HRRR guidance. The short range GFS was really bad with last weeks snowstorm... was consistently showing less then 10cm for YYZ. Currently 35f imby, which is pretty consistent with YYZ OBS. Humidity just above 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Wow, I've been at work all day and haven't had a lot of time to check this. I gather we're in for freezing rain tomorrow north of the 401? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 HRRR/RAP pretty consistent with a change over to PL/ZR between 10-13z if you live along the 401 in the GTA. Not sure how long the ZR lasts as its out of model range ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Toronto snow removal department has decided not to salt/brine the roads pre-storm because of "too much forecast uncertainty". They are going to regret that decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Toronto snow removal department has decided not to salt/brine the roads pre-storm because of "too much forecast uncertainty". They are going to regret that decision. Mississauga is not taking the chance. A salt truck just went by and dropped a lot of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Also just a couple obs from around the region since its pretty much nowcasting time. Toronto is 1.2C and the Island is 2.1C. Hamilton, KW and London are all at 0C now. Interesting is that winds are also NNE out of London now. The rest of the sites are still SW or W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Toronto snow removal department has decided not to salt/brine the roads pre-storm because of "too much forecast uncertainty". They are going to regret that decision. What a stupid move by them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 When is the precipitation forecast to start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 33°/30° here with drizzle/mist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 When is the precipitation forecast to start? after 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 HRRR/RAP pretty consistent with a change over to PL/ZR between 10-13z if you live along the 401 in the GTA. Not sure how long the ZR lasts as its out of model range ATM. Toronto snow removal department has decided not to salt/brine the roads pre-storm because of "too much forecast uncertainty". They are going to regret that decision. They didnt even clean my street during the snowstorm last week..-_- Usually they do. Did they already maximize their budget, lol. One thing that needs to be watched is how much low level cold air can work into the precip bands once they move in. Currently temperatures are just a degree above freezing and we didn't see the Sun today. With that being said, daytime heating wasn't a factor today and perhaps the snow-cover will retain the cool temperatures just above the surface. I think regions near the 401 and North could be in for some decent icing tomorrow. Should start off as snow tonight and will switch back over to snow tomorrow night as temperatures cool. Its a risky set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 They didnt even clean my street during the snowstorm last week..-_- Usually they do. Did they already maximize their budget, lol. One thing that needs to be watched is how much low level cold air can work into the precip bands once they move in. Currently temperatures are just a degree above freezing and we didn't see the Sun today. With that being said, daytime heating wasn't a factor today and perhaps the snow-cover will retain the cool temperatures just above the surface. I think regions near the 401 and North could be in for some decent icing tomorrow. Should start off as snow tonight and will switch back over to snow tomorrow night as temperatures cool. Its a risky set-up. Of course they didn't. You don't live in Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Light returns starting to show up on radar. MSN reporting -ZRDZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I'm 5 miles inland where it is 31° with -ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I noticed the snowpack here already has the frozen crust on top and the snow/slush on the parking lot was freezing up. This is before we have any precip falling. Of course, hoping more snow mixes in, but I have my doubts, given the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Vaughan down to -0.2C and YYZ sitting at 1.1C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 34 (according to my car hah!) and drizzle here I'm also 5 miles from the lakeshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Returns starting to break out on Exeter and DTX radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Best of conditions here at the moment. 33 with light rain, and a touch of fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 4km NAM trending up with ice accretion threat for tomorrow afternoon/eve. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 4km NAM trending up with ice accretion threat for tomorrow afternoon/eve. Not good.image.jpg Nice graphics. Can you provide me the link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 4km NAM trending up with ice accretion threat for tomorrow afternoon/eve. Not good.image.jpg Nice graphics. Can you provide me the link? Says WxBell on the bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 33° at home still with drizzle. Definitely some -ZR out towards I-94/US 45. Noticed branches and signs with a light glaze on them. Freezing rain advisory extended into Lake County now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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