Geos Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 GFS keeping it colder here, hence the snow is further south. Might end up being a mid 30s rain snow mix change over to all snow once the column cools enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Models keep diverging as this storm draws closer. Always fun. No kidding. The RGEM is calling for straight rain with this first system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Euro comes in colder for the GTA. Shows an all snow event away from the Lake. Near the Lake amounts will be closer to 2" (5cm) mixed in with some rain. However, temperatures arent overly warm, slightly above freezing and slightly below freezing away from the Lake. Shows a nice 4-6" (10-15cm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Euro comes in colder for the GTA. Shows an all snow event away from the Lake. Near the Lake amounts will be closer to 2" (5cm) mixed in with some rain. However, temperatures arent overly warm, slightly above freezing and slightly below freezing away from the Lake. Shows a nice 4-6" (10-15cm). Thanks for posting this, I was just about to ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 This looks like our best bet for wintry/snowy precip for the GTA in the next 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 18z GFS looks good for the Friday system, particularly north of the 401. Hopefully I can pick up at least 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Now I have drizzle to freezing rain to snow for this system. < 1" of snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 NAM's gone over to the dark side. Looks messy at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 NAM's gone over to the dark side. Looks messy at best. Still believe areas north of 401 have a good chance of getting a messy 3-4". We maybe able to work in some CAD given the decent snow pack and HP to the north, funneling in some cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Still believe areas north of 401 have a good chance of getting a messy 3-4". We maybe able to work in some CAD given the decent snow pack and HP to the north, funneling in some cold air. We'll see how the other models come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 We'll see how the other models come in. 0z Nam has a weak secondary wave riding along the front that may drop a good 1-3" (2-8cm) across the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 0z Nam has a weak secondary wave riding along the front that may drop a good 1-3" (2-8cm) across the GTA. nam_namer_051_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Would be a nice treat before the Grinch storm melts it all away. Still, I'd rather have snow on the ground for the buildup to Christmas than just on Christmas Eve/Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Would be a nice treat before the Grinch storm melts it all away. Still, I'd rather have snow on the ground for the buildup to Christmas than just on Christmas Eve/Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 OB Please take a chill pill. Even if we do warm up Sunday to +6 that should happen when most of the precipitation is done it won't melt all the snow away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 well..The GGEM shows a nice soaker with this system, however the temperatures are near freezing for areas away from the Lake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 well..The GGEM shows a nice soaker with this system, however the temperatures are near freezing for areas away from the Lake... It shows mostly rain for Toronto, with a brief period of freezing rain. The 0z GFS is coming in slightly warmer for this system as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 GEM is even warm with the second wave. Looking at how the 0z GFS handles the second system, maybe I shouldn't have jumped down OB's throat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 GEM is even warm with the second wave. Looking at how the 0z GFS handles the second system, maybe I shouldn't have jumped down OB's throat. How much snow you guys have up there on the ground? I'm predicting most of my 2 foot base to be gone by Monday morning. At least this warmth will slow down Lake Eries freezing, it was going far to fast for my liking. Once Erie freezes we have to rely upon synoptic systems for all our snow, that is never fun at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 How much snow you guys have up there on the ground? I'm predicting most of my 2 foot base to be gone by Monday morning. At least this warmth will slow down Lake Eries freezing, it was going far to fast for my liking. Once Erie freezes we have to rely upon synoptic systems for all our snow, that is never fun at all. I only have about 6-8" on the ground, so if you're expecting your two feet to be gone by Monday, then it's likely much of my snowpack will be gone too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 It shows mostly rain for Toronto, with a brief period of freezing rain. The 0z GFS is coming in slightly warmer for this system as well. GEM is even warm with the second wave. Looking at how the 0z GFS handles the second system, maybe I shouldn't have jumped down OB's throat. Karma, its sweet aint it? lol. We finally get some decent storms with some nice moisture and the chance of rain is in the picture. What a bummer -_- How much snow you guys have up there on the ground? I'm predicting most of my 2 foot base to be gone by Monday morning. At least this warmth will slow down Lake Eries freezing, it was going far to fast for my liking. Once Erie freezes we have to rely upon synoptic systems for all our snow, that is never fun at all. In my area 8-9" however, in Downtown closer to 10-11". Were going to see a nice cool down through much of next week so this warmth will only put a small dent in the ice growth. If i lived near the Lake effect belt areas I would cherish every moment because in recent years, "luck" hasn't been on our side. Sh!t bomb storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 tumblr_mmi901cTzi1rlpmv9o1_r1_500.gif Karma, its sweet aint it? lol. We finally get some decent storms with some nice moisture and the chance of rain is in the picture. What a bummer -_- In my area 8-9" however, in Downtown closer to 10-11". Were going to see a nice cool down through much of next week so this warmth will only put a small dent in the ice growth. If i lived near the Lake effect belt areas I would cherish every moment because in recent years, "luck" hasn't been on our side. Sh!t bomb storms. Haha, that GIF is great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Haha, that GIF is great! Haha thanks. However, being an avid snow lover I much rather have that in April than December... If only the Winters of the 70s could be repeated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Haha thanks. However, being an avid snow lover I much rather have that in April than December... If only the Winters of the 70s could be repeated... AS JB himself has said the winters of the 70s weren't constantly cold like so many make them out to be. The winter of 76-77 was over after the second week of February. Christmas 1979 had the Grinch storm to trump all Grinch storms when close to four inches of rain fell on Toronto over Christmas Eve/Day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Haha thanks. However, being an avid snow lover I much rather have that in April than December... If only the Winters of the 70s could be repeated... I've been completely spoiled this year, so I cannot complain. It also heats up the Lake for a little bit which is pivotal in our snow totals on the year. I'm a huge snow lover to but its not even winter yet and a warmup like this is pretty climo every December. At least around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 AS JB himself has said the winters of the 70s weren't constantly cold like so many make them out to be. The winter of 76-77 was over after the second week of February. Christmas 1979 had the Grinch storm to trump all Grinch storms when close to four inches of rain fell on Toronto over Christmas Eve/Day! Well it depends what perspective you look at it from right? Much of the 70's winter up until 1978-79 were mostly cold and snowy overall. 1970-72 was a great pair of back-to-back awesome Winters. 1976-77 had a nice winter up until Mid February when the El Nino warmth took control which is typical of El Ninos (2009-10). The winters from 76-79 were way below normal in terms of temperatures which is something you don't see very often. I would love a stretch of some of the 70's Winters. Seems like when our grandparents say "Winters were better back then," they reminisce of the extraordinary winters of the 70s because the 40's and 50's were no different than this recent decade. I've been completely spoiled this year, so I cannot complain. It also heats up the Lake for a little bit which is pivotal in our snow totals on the year. I'm a huge snow lover to but its not even winter yet and a warmup like this is pretty climo every December. At least around these parts. Your lucky you live in the Lake Effect belt area. Doesnt Lake effect snow compact faster than snowfall from systems? From my observations it compacts much faster. We have seen Winters ala 2000-01 where the cold hangs around and the snow stays on the ground for a long time. I believe the snow was on the ground in Toronto from December through Mid march back in 00-01. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Northern regions of the GTA or away from the Lake cash in on the latest Euro. Still going with its idea of 3-5" away from the Lake. Near the Lake less than 4cm with more rain/mixing. SFC temperatures are around 0.5 to 2C near the Lake before they cool down later Friday to below 0C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Well it depends what perspective you look at it from right? Much of the 70's winter up until 1978-79 were mostly cold and snowy overall. 1970-72 was a great pair of back-to-back awesome Winters. 1976-77 had a nice winter up until Mid February when the El Nino warmth took control which is typical of El Ninos (2009-10). The winters from 76-79 were way below normal in terms of temperatures which is something you don't see very often. I would love a stretch of some of the 70's Winters. Seems like when our grandparents say "Winters were better back then," they reminisce of the extraordinary winters of the 70s because the 40's and 50's were no different than this recent decade. Your lucky you live in the Lake Effect belt area. Doesnt Lake effect snow compact faster than snowfall from systems? From my observations it compacts much faster. We have seen Winters ala 2000-01 where the cold hangs around and the snow stays on the ground for a long time. I believe the snow was on the ground in Toronto from December through Mid march back in 00-01. Like hell LOL!!!! Dont know about Toronto, but winters of this decade were WAY snowier than the 1940s-50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Northern regions of the GTA or away from the Lake cash in on the latest Euro. Still going with its idea of 3-5" away from the Lake. Near the Lake less than 4cm with more rain/mixing. SFC temperatures are around 0.5 to 2C near the Lake before they cool down later Friday to below 0C. When you say by the lake do you mean the immediate lakeshore, south of the 401, south of Highway 7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 When you say by the lake do you mean the immediate lakeshore, south of the 401, south of Highway 7? South of 401, lol. Theirs a better chance for snow north of 401. Temperatures are marginal. Its around freezing north of 401 too. Wet snow? Remember i dont have access to the raw data. ToBlizzard does. My friend emails me the ECMWF images when they update cause he's doing meteorology in Uni, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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