Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2013 Author Share Posted December 21, 2013 CPC ensembles are all heading in the right direction today of you like winter. AO is poised for quite a flip if some members verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Euro esm went into crap mode.Took away the Christmas after,drizzle or light snow even took away the trough for new years But i believe it doesnt have a handle right in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2013 Author Share Posted December 22, 2013 Euro esm went into crap mode.Took away the Christmas after,drizzle or light snow even took away the trough for new years But i believe it doesnt have a handle right in the SW. Hard to tell. The Euro isn't what it once was, but betting against it is usually bad for my health. Could be a hiccup. The 18z GFS was less amplified with the trough as well. I would stick with the pattern which would suggest a PNA ridge and downstream E coast trough. That said, until the Atlantic cooperates, we have problems. Enjoy the weather, I would guess 70s won't be back until April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Hard to tell. The Euro isn't what it once was, but betting against it is usually bad for my health. Could be a hiccup. The 18z GFS was less amplified with the trough as well. I would stick with the pattern which would suggest a PNA ridge and downstream E coast trough. That said, until the Atlantic cooperates, we have problems. Enjoy the weather, I would guess 70s won't be back until April. Euro and GFS both took away the after christmas flakes,but that was a weak system anyways.Still believe to watch where this system ends up at Sunday,we'll set the pattern up then..JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2013 Author Share Posted December 22, 2013 Euro and GFS both took away the after christmas flakes,but that was a weak system anyways.Still believe to watch where this system ends up at Sunday,we'll set the pattern up then..JMHO I think probably that both models have trouble, especially during winter, of being able to see the finer detals. They can simulate where SWs will be, but have real difficulty in being able to simulate interactions(phasing). Until the new pattern really locks-in, the wx models will have trouble. Other than a true GOM system, I look for an elongated trough...seems to be what really produces for the TN Valley. The "new" pattern has this feature, but cold availability will be the issue I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2013 Author Share Posted December 22, 2013 This look along w/ above normal precipiation...not a bad set-up. I don't see anything firm at this point, but certainly cold and above normal precip is not a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Ensembles continue to look good. no real threats at this point, but you have to think if we can get this look to at least hold going forward.........we will soon have something to follow. I don't know about you guys, but I am ready to track some wintry stuff Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2013 Author Share Posted December 22, 2013 12z GFS has snow on a cold front passage on 12/30. Features will change a lot as the models don't really have the pattern handled well yet IMO. Still, an interesting feature as cold front snow is unusual most winters here. I have a few memorable ones, but just a few. Edit: Nice run through 264 for those who enjoy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 12z GFS has snow on a cold front passage on 12/30. Features will change a lot as the models don't really have the pattern handled well yet IMO. Still, an interesting feature as cold front snow is unusual most winters here. I have a few memorable ones, but just a few. Didn't think they looked that bad either,and like twn said above you the esm. were good also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2013 Author Share Posted December 22, 2013 When the CPC ensemble PNA, NAO, and AO go positive, negative, negative respectively....that usually spells winter east of the Mississippi. By no means do I think the long range GFS is correct on the attached feature, but it does show that the models are catching on to a cold, winter pattern ahead. Also, the 12z Euro looked good. Anyone mind posting it? Just need it for the pattern. (Edited 5:32 PM, 12/22) NAO AO PNA 12z 12-22-13 GFS(shows pattern recognition by wx model, not necessarily the actual event) Might not work out...but I'll take all four images all day long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Nice setup now inside day 10. New Years and forward look promising. Hope we continue to reel the cold in. Once inside day 6/7 we can begin to focus on any legit threats. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Robert (WxSouth.com) has a good write up in his extended outlook and shows where most of the TN valley has a much increased chance of winter weather toward the end of Dec and Early January. I don't always agree with him, but he is really good at his craft. It's also only 10.00 a month. If you want to be kept in the loop with upcoming weather, patterns, and individual storms I highly recommend him. I also tend to agree with him on this matter. Winter opportunity is likely on its way....... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2013 Author Share Posted December 23, 2013 Robert (WxSouth.com) has a good write up in his extended outlook and shows where most of the TN valley has a much increased chance of winter weather toward the end of Dec and Early January. I don't always agree with him, but he is really good at his craft. It's also only 10.00 a month. If you want to be kept in the loop with upcoming weather, patterns, and individual storms I highly recommend him. I also tend to agree with him on this matter. Winter opportunity is likely on its way....... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Read it. He sounded somewhat "iffy" on late January. I wonder if the next three weeks are our shot at winter. CPC looks like they are going warm February onward. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2013 Author Share Posted December 23, 2013 Here are the CPC maps I referenced above: JFM Outlook January Outlook Edit: Since the TN Valley is mostly equal chances for January, have to think they are betting on February and March being warm enough to erase any cold that may or may not occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 It will be fascinating to watch unfold as we have those in the latter winter blocking camp and those that think we go strongly + AO again.... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clarksville Snowman Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Signs looking good for first of jan and beyond right now.Maybe we get to start a New years snow thread for our first winter threat soon. I really can't believe more people aren't talking about the upcoming pattern yet, maybe a couple more good runs will do the trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 To be honest our forum will be light until others sign up. I recommend telling a friend or two and posting often. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I think it's important to note that with no strong blocking showing in the upcoming Atlantic configuration, most any storm will likely be further north than modeled from 3-5 days out. I have been watching each storm this fall and winter and this has been happening with regularity. (Ask Chicago how their big storm just turned out after all was said and done) Granted we haven't had ANY blocking to this point, but unless the blocking that develops is moderate to strong, the SE ridge (even though muted a bit) will likely affect any storm by sending them a little further north and west than forecast. If anything that comes along looks like its going to miss south, I would watch it like a hawk........lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I think it's important to note that with no strong blocking showing in the upcoming Atlantic configuration, most any storm will likely be further north than modeled from 3-5 days out. I have been watching each storm this fall and winter and this has been happening with regularity. (Ask Chicago how their big storm just turned out after all was said and done) Granted we haven't had ANY blocking to this point, but unless the blocking that develops is moderate to strong, the SE ridge (even though muted a bit) will likely affect any storm by sending them a little further north and west than forecast. If anything that comes along looks like its going to miss south, I would watch it like a hawk........lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I Agree I would think that any storm modeled right now would be a bit north...that's a great point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2013 Author Share Posted December 23, 2013 Here's hoping the epo goes back negative and helps split that polar vortex, the end of the year is starting to get me excited. At least the models are trending in a good direction. Keep posting. The more diversity in our region, the better off we will be. You help represent middle TN. Everyone who posts some, I strongly encourage you all to post more often. And agreed, a good storm always grows forum though like you say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 0z GFS ensembles= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 GEFS Precip 8-16 days 8-16 day 2m Temps anomoly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 We'll see if we can work any moisture into the mix but highs in the 20s and lows in the lower 10s appear to be very possible for the first week of January. Possibly even colder than that. Models are waffling on throwing us some moisture but in those set ups the NW flow often aids some of us in Eastern Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Would be the best possible situation for the TN Valley region....... Wxsouth https://twitter.com/wxsouth/status/415074174877437953 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Also encouraging per JB https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/415088357194997760 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Euro ens OZ drops the PV into the N parts of the Valley,temps on the 3rd, don't get out of the teens for highs that day state wide of Tn.Clown map shows two troughs around the 3 and 7 and 3+" each event.It would be nice though to see the 12z buy into the idea,it's been on the warm side the last couple days compared to the 0z,,would like to see some consistency. Edit:Just woke up,those troughs are setting up 2 and 5 not 3 and 7 of Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 The ensembles show an el-nino pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Uhm the 12z gfs is amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Uhm the 12z gfs is amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Better pattern ........post hr 144 per the 12z GFS. I really think we are headed in a good direction. I just hate to see it showing post days 7-10. Too much can change and if its perfect in the long run, the chances are good it trends to something far less than perfect. In this case though, with all the indices looking better by the day, I think it's only a matter of time before we have something good to track. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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