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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion


CAD_Wedge_NC

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Thought the overnight Euro Ensemble Mean was fairly impressive.  Surface low tracking just off the southeast coast, with banana sfc high to the north and northwest...one anchored in over northern NY at Canadian border, another to the west.  Very good jet dynamics too with the southeast in right entrance region of jet over the mid-Atlantic, a common feature in winter storms here.  Just looking through the various op and ensemble runs, one trend I see is that the northern stream shortwave that dives in from the Pacific Northwest is coming in a bit sharper and a bit farther west, inducing more of a storm signal - not all are like this, some are weak and north with that wave, but just commenting on trends I'm seeing, mainly with the various GFS Ensemble members.  It's a tightrope with getting the storm and cold temps, but what's new

Yes it is :lol:  With that said, I'm not excited for mby, but it sure is interesting for those to my north and west :)   

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Actually, through 108 the GFS matches up well with the EC, especially in regards to the location of the northern shortwave in the vicinity of CO/WY.  Thereafter the wave does not dig as far south as the EC, thus the coastal develops further north. All-in-all, its not terribly different through day 5.

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WPC morning discussion...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1018 AM EST SAT DEC 28 2013VALID 12Z TUE DEC 31 2013 - 12Z SAT JAN 04 2014...BITTER COLD TO INVADE THE UPPER MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, ANDNORTHEAST......INCREASING CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE ATLANTICSTATES...THE ANTICIPATED MERIDIONAL EVENT OVER NORTH AMERICA AT THE MEDIUMRANGE APPEARS INEVITABLE AT THIS POINT. USED THE 00Z/28 ECENS MEANAS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE THIS FORECAST, BASED ON ITS STRONG CONTINUITYAND THE EMERGENCE OF A DOMINANT MEMBER CLUSTER WITHIN ITS ENVELOPEOF SOLUTIONS. THE ACCEPTANCE OF A DEEP EASTERN TROUGH SEALS THEONGOING DRY FATE FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, WITH ONLY THEFAR PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINING VULNERABLE TO THE PASSAGE OFNORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES.A ONE-TWO WINTRY PUNCH IS INDICATED BY THE ECENS MEAN OVER THEEAST--THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK FOLLOWED BY A SNOWY WAVE LIFTING FROMTHE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THEARCTIC OUTBREAK IS MORE CERTAIN, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING WELLBELOW ZERO IN BOTH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THENORTHEAST--INCLUDING THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. THE CANADIAN BORDEROF NORTHERN NEW YORK, THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT, ANDNORTHERN MAINE LOOK PARTICULARLY COLD NEXT THURSDAY. THE CHANCEFOR SNOW FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLANDTHURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IS LESS CERTAIN, ALTHOUGH MORE THAN HALFOF THE 00Z/28 ECENS MEMBERS SHOW UNEQUIVOCAL ACCUMULATING SNOW FORPLACES LIKE WASHINGTON, DC, WHERE A "SNOW DROUGHT" OF SORTS HASMARKED THE LAST FEW WINTERS. THE SEPARATION BETWEEN SHORTWAVESOVER THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK WILL DETERMINE WHO GETS WINTRYPRECIPITATION AND HOW MUCH FALLS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER REFINETHIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST IN THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES.CISCO
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WPC morning discussion...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1018 AM EST SAT DEC 28 2013VALID 12Z TUE DEC 31 2013 - 12Z SAT JAN 04 2014...BITTER COLD TO INVADE THE UPPER MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, ANDNORTHEAST......INCREASING CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE ATLANTICSTATES...THE ANTICIPATED MERIDIONAL EVENT OVER NORTH AMERICA AT THE MEDIUMRANGE APPEARS INEVITABLE AT THIS POINT. USED THE 00Z/28 ECENS MEANAS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE THIS FORECAST, BASED ON ITS STRONG CONTINUITYAND THE EMERGENCE OF A DOMINANT MEMBER CLUSTER WITHIN ITS ENVELOPEOF SOLUTIONS. THE ACCEPTANCE OF A DEEP EASTERN TROUGH SEALS THEONGOING DRY FATE FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, WITH ONLY THEFAR PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINING VULNERABLE TO THE PASSAGE OFNORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES.A ONE-TWO WINTRY PUNCH IS INDICATED BY THE ECENS MEAN OVER THEEAST--THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK FOLLOWED BY A SNOWY WAVE LIFTING FROMTHE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THEARCTIC OUTBREAK IS MORE CERTAIN, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING WELLBELOW ZERO IN BOTH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THENORTHEAST--INCLUDING THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. THE CANADIAN BORDEROF NORTHERN NEW YORK, THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT, ANDNORTHERN MAINE LOOK PARTICULARLY COLD NEXT THURSDAY. THE CHANCEFOR SNOW FROM THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLANDTHURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IS LESS CERTAIN, ALTHOUGH MORE THAN HALFOF THE 00Z/28 ECENS MEMBERS SHOW UNEQUIVOCAL ACCUMULATING SNOW FORPLACES LIKE WASHINGTON, DC, WHERE A "SNOW DROUGHT" OF SORTS HASMARKED THE LAST FEW WINTERS. THE SEPARATION BETWEEN SHORTWAVESOVER THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK WILL DETERMINE WHO GETS WINTRYPRECIPITATION AND HOW MUCH FALLS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER REFINETHIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST IN THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES.CISCO

Congrats to DC  :lol: 

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