stormtracker Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Eh, it'll be gone in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Eh, it'll be gone in 6 hours. It's been shown on the gfs for a couple runs now. That;s the new year's storm it has been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 It's been shown on the gfs for a couple runs now. That;s the new year's storm it has been showing. At 192 hours, it's the best look I've seen regarding that potential late December storm the GFS has been hinting at. Still not ideal, but nice to see a 500 mb vort passing to the south. Lot of time to work out the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 It's been shown on the gfs for a couple runs now. That;s the new year's storm it has been showing. I disagree. The Nye storm is associated with a ns vort that is still showing in later panels. The moisture streaming out of tx is new in the sense that it gets organized and moves north. It's been there but weak and sheared. Not saying it's a threat but I don't think it's associated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 Southern stream is wide open in the lr and the gfs continues to beat ridging poleward and pv displacement. Im starting to take this whole evolution more seriously Ensembles show mixed solutions but they always do. I think there are enough signs to start thinking greener pastures are possible and not fantasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Problem is the GFS does something funky with the northern stream vort between 192 and 204. It completely washes it out and pops the vort at the base of the trough. I'm guessing that northern vort will actually still be there if it weren't for truncation and would throw a monkey wrench into anything decent, but we have plenty more GFS solutions coming our way. Something to look at while we take in the spring like air this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 GFS long range shows the start of a sudden stratospheric warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Southern stream is wide open in the lr and the gfs continues to beat ridging poleward and pv displacement. Im starting to take this whole evolution more seriously Ensembles show mixed solutions but they always do. I think there are enough signs to start thinking greener pastures are possible and not fantasy I think that is a decent bet from this range......that we get a PV north of the great lakes at the end of the month....or something like that....I think that pattern is a good miller B pattern. one that we can even do ok in....when you have a PV displaced to our NW....,,,ideally we want it to our northeast, but that is going to take time i think.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 GEFS solidly beating the drum of a ridge bridge from our big -EPO across the pole into western Russia. Combine that with the Gulf being open, as Bob mentioned, and I think that's the best news of all going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 GEFS solidly beating the drum of a ridge bridge from our big -EPO across the pole into western Russia. Combine that with the Gulf being open, as Bob mentioned, and I think that's the best news of all going forward. EC, GFS and CMC all have it in one fashion or another! http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_12z/hgtcomp.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 It's been shown on the gfs for a couple runs now. That;s the new year's storm it has been showing. Nope. That's not the ny storm. Just do a comparison vs the past runs at that same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Nope. That's not the ny storm. Just do a comparison vs the past runs at that same time frame. There's been a hint of something late next week for a day or two. I mentioned it yesterday morning I think. Given that the pattern is still pretty northern stream dominated then (although it appears like it's changing right around that time), I think a potent clipper is the best bet for us to get measurable snow. Certainly a Miller-B scenario would be on the table as well, but we know how those often go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Speaking of the AO, Allen (RaleighWx) just posted this on his twitter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 Euro h5 anoms do look very similar to the last few runs of the gefs. Not as pronounced though but they never are. I might be wrong in saying this but I think the euro's 51 members smooth things out more than the gefs as you go forward in time. But the look is definitely similar. As matt said, miller b style pattern. It looks good but not great. Looking at the ind gefs members, all the big storms have a primary to the N or track to the nw. Overrunning and clipper type vorts look much more tasty. Totally logical. Ensemble forecasts have caught on to losing the big +ao. This is the most agreement I've seen so far by a mile. If it verified, it's the 3rd time the big +ao dropped to neutral or slightly negative since mid Nov. Previous 2 were transient. I remember reading that the previous ao drops were in response to the epo ridge making it poleward and affecting height patterns near the pole. Not exactly a good neutral or -ao imo. Once the ridge relaxes a little heights fall quickly in its wake. The main difference in the progs this go around is the ridging over and just east of scandanavia is equally as strong and this gives a little more oomph against the pv. It looks good but not great. I'm not complaining. Trust me. I think we can have some chances here. Hopefully as time moves forward into January the pv can slide further SE and we can get some more classic blocking over top of it in GL. I have a feeling that what's happening is just a similar repeat of early Dec but a bit better for us. If either ridge relaxes then we revert back. Hard to argue with persistence until it becomes more clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 last night's euro did not like the idea of any snow before new years though 5 members did have a little snow on the 31st, the most was 2 inches which is really lame when using its snow algorithm which also has seemed overly bullish. Beyond the 1st things get somewhat more interesting as Bob and Matt have noted. Miller Bs are fickle storms and are almost impossible to forecast 48 hrs in advance which will undoubtably lead to lots of froth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Happy (relatively) days are here again? Come on Wes, put the period on all these happy thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 last night's euro did not like the idea of any snow before new years though 5 members did have a little snow on the 31st, the most was 2 inches which is really lame when using its snow algorithm which also has seemed overly bullish. Beyond the 1st things get somewhat more interesting as Bob and Matt have noted. Miller Bs are fickle storms and are almost impossible to forecast 48 hrs in advance which will undoubtably lead to lots of froth. Happy (relatively) days are here again? Come on Wes, put the period on all these happy thoughts. Ok, ok.....baby steps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 last night's euro did not like the idea of any snow before new years though 5 members did have a little snow on the 31st, the most was 2 inches which is really lame when using its snow algorithm which also has seemed overly bullish. Beyond the 1st things get somewhat more interesting as Bob and Matt have noted. Miller Bs are fickle storms and are almost impossible to forecast 48 hrs in advance which will undoubtably lead to lots of froth. I'm sure not seeing easy snow before the 1st. But it's still a progressive and fast pattern. Doesn't look like a pattern that would support a ns vort getting underneath us. Not impossible but prob not worth discussing in detail. I do like some of the ind gefs members pulling moisture along the boundary from tx. Any low tracking from the pac nw should drop a cold front se of us. A shot of overrunning on the heels is probably our best shot at a 2" storm in DC. Pretty much a wag at this lead but something to watch. Models won't be much good outside of 5 days or so if any threat like this does develop it will be a medium to short lead kinda deal. At least we're not bored out of our minds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Ok, ok.....baby steps... As I said, I don't like the period before New Years and think the probability of getting an inch at DCA is less than the climo probability for the week after Xmas. In don't think the pattern after the 1st is a great one but could be OK if we temper expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Ok, ok.....baby steps... Ideally we don't want a displaced PV to our NW...we want it over the Maritimes or NF or 50-50....a displaced PV north of the Lakes with ridging near 50-50 (not saying this is going to happen) is a cold pattern, but I think one where lows go to our west, run into interference, and jump.....usually giving Paramus Mall 64"..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Ideally we don't want a displaced PV to our NW...we want it over the Maritimes or NF or 50-50....a displaced PV north of the Lakes with ridging near 50-50 (not saying this is going to happen) is a cold pattern, but I think one where lows go to our west, run into interference, and jump.....usually giving Paramus Mall 64"..... and winchester mall 5 inches and DC 1 inch or less of slop unless we get extremely lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 and winchester mall 5 inches and DC 1 inch or less of slop unless we get extremely lucky. LOL. It's hard to think that about 50 air miles and 700-900 feet in elevation makes that much difference but it does evidently. I see the word panic in the thread subtitle. I don't panic until I start seeing dry patterns. Hopefully we stay active wrt precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 and winchester mall 5 inches and DC 1 inch or less of slop unless we get extremely lucky. ha...I think we do ok in that pattern sometimes, but as you know it usually involves a strong ULL to our sw that slots through to our south where we want it...a split flow helps..maybe since climo is better me and you can sneak in a 2" event instead of our usual 0.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 GFS teases on the 30th but not much to talk about. It will change a few dozen times. Still an active period in general. Christmas looks like a nice chilly day. Signs still pointing at closing the year out and beginning the new one on a cold note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 GFS teases on the 30th but not much to talk about. It will change a few dozen times. Still an active period in general. Christmas looks like a nice chilly day. Signs still pointing at closing the year out and beginning the new one on a cold note. 12z run just squashes everything down with the PV flexing its muscle. Pretty cold run post-torchmaggedon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 12z run just squashes everything down with the PV flexing its muscle. Pretty cold run post-torchmaggedon. It is. Looks like one day aoa with return flow from the low passing from the north. Verbatim, torchmagoo will will get knocked down some in the averages. Decent winter month considering the last couple. The torch is the only thing that stands out as being truly warm. Overall it has felt like December with some snow to boot. ETA: looks like 2 lows pass to the north. Xmas week as a whole looks to be quite variable verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 12z run just squashes everything down with the PV flexing its muscle. Pretty cold run post-torchmaggedon. It looks kind of cool...I think between 12/24 - 12/31, it looks like we would still have 2-3 days above normal...Euro supports that...no super cold and no torch..perhaps climo..Christmas could be our coldest day in the stretch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 It looks kind of cool...I think between 12/24 - 12/31, it looks like we would still have 2-3 days above normal...Euro supports that...no super cold and no torch..perhaps climo..Christmas could be our coldest day in the stretch... Euro certainly has been showing a pretty climo type pattern for that period. 12z GFS verbatim looks like maybe 1 day in that period slightly above average (29th) with some days quite cold (e.g., 31st a solid double digit negative departure and maybe Christmas also). Either way, I think we end the month +0-2F. I think your call of the warm days being warmer than the cold days is spot-on. Just life in the new climactic regime I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I find it interesting just how different Monday's weather now looks to be than it did just a couple of days ago. Something to consider before lending too much credence to forecasts for the end of next week and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I find it interesting just how different Monday's weather now looks to be than it did just a couple of days ago. Something to consider before lending too much credence to forecasts for the end of next week and beyond. I think that's mostly just a function of trying to figure out when the FROPA occurs, right? When HP is in control, I think longer-range forecasts get a little more confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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