PhineasC Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Christmas looks cold, thank God. Hate warm Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 From the limited views I have, it looks like the Euro is dry as a bone after the early week rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Christmas looks cold, thank God. Hate warm Christmas. GFS showing light snow for 6 hrs xmas eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 From the limited views I have, it looks like the Euro is dry as a bone after the early week rain. EC has coastal but misses MD. out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Euro ens are an outlier, but that 1st week of january looks stormy...we should have several trackable events...probably with tricky tracks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Euro ens are an outlier, but that 1st week of january looks stormy...we should have several trackable events...probably with tricky tracks... Matt, I pretty much agree, it looks like a colder than normal period that could be stormy but with a not so good storm track for us at least in terms of a big snowstorm. It probably has more mixed and ice potential than big snow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Matt, I pretty much agree, it looks like a colder than normal period that could be stormy but with a not so good storm track for us at least in terms of a big snowstorm. It probably has more mixed and ice potential than big snow potential. agreed...maybe since climo is better, we can get 2" out of a mangled storm instead of 1"....I like the bad track events better than 39 and overcast....70 is kind of nice for a day or 2, but then give me a stormy pattern even if they are bad tracks...they are kind of fun to forecast anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 12z Euro Ens Mean has very little spread in the idea of a strong vortex over southern Hudson Bay on day 10 For the top 5 analogs for today's run for the 5 days centered on 1/2...3 had snow during the 5 day period....and 3 had a super cold day, but in all 3 of those examples the cold shot was 1 or 2 days only Coldest Day/Snow events within 5 day period 24/11, T 27/17, 2.2" 21/13, 3.4" and 1.4" 40/33, T 37/26, 0.3" I think this lends some credence to the idea some of us have that the 1st week of January has a better than normal chance of a cold shot, and a better than normal chance of a 1-3" event for immediate DC metro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 NAM has been consistently wet for tomorrow...hope so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Interesting look on the GFS around New Years. Rain as modeled but interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2013 Author Share Posted December 22, 2013 This thread is dead It will be on fire next week. DC will break its 2" snow drought before the first week of Jan is over. Next week isnt dead either. Sneaky vorts to keep an eye on. But they won't be as exciting as the 3 day record breaking warmth that 3 people seem to be all excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Euro gives us some snow Thursday evening..just grazes us.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Euro gives us some snow Thursday evening..just grazes us.... A few of it's ensembles also support it but most don't. Surface temps are really marginal (mid 30s) when the precipitation is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 I've decided to not look at models beyond 5 days just to try and keep winter from seemingly flying by, but I did look at the AO, NAO, and PNA forecasts and they keep getting better each day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2013 Author Share Posted December 22, 2013 I've decided to not look at models beyond 5 days just to try and keep winter from seemingly flying by, but I did look at the AO, NAO, and PNA forecasts and they keep getting better each day. You should be busy in a week then. A more sustained cold and active period is becoming pretty clear. We should manage to be on the winning side of something even in the cities coming up. Nothing classic from what I'm seeing but timing something appears like it might be easier than usual. If dc doesn't hit a 2" storm before the 4 year anniversary then there are things going on behind the scenes that cannot be explained except maybe in some back alley room in the French quarter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 You should be busy in a week then. A more sustained cold and active period is becoming pretty clear. We should manage to be on the winning side of something even in the cities coming up. Nothing classic from what I'm seeing but timing something appears like it might be easier than usual. If dc doesn't hit a 2" storm before the 4 year anniversary then there are things going on behind the scenes that cannot be explained except maybe in some back alley room in the French quarter. Watch it, Bob. Wes is going to come in here and tell you how it doesn't look very cold - just maybe a little below normal - and that any events will be messy except for out in Winchester or up in Williamsport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 So, the GFS for next Sunday/Monday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Watch it, Bob. Wes is going to come in here and tell you how it doesn't look very cold - just maybe a little below normal - and that any events will be messy except for out in Winchester or up in Williamsport. No, Bob's gonna be the Mi Altantic spokesman on longer range stuff unless Matt sticks his head in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2013 Author Share Posted December 22, 2013 GFS has an interesting look next monday. Arctic front with an unusual amount of moisture streaming in front and also a decent h5 pattern with relavtively flat compressed flow above us and vorticity at the base of the trough. The moist frontal passage is suspect but the overall look could bring a small surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2013 Author Share Posted December 22, 2013 No, Bob's gonna be the Mi Altantic spokesman on longer range stuff unless Matt sticks his head in. Please step in when I get all weenie and stuff and knock some sense in to me. I've been pretty good this year but I might go haywire with the upcoming pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 GFS has an interesting look next monday. Arctic front with an unusual amount of moisture streaming in front and also a decent h5 pattern with relavtively flat compressed flow above us and vorticity at the base of the trough. The moist frontal passage is suspect but the overall look could bring a small surprise. Sort of Miller-B's the vort once it hits the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2013 Author Share Posted December 22, 2013 Sort of Miller-B's the vort once it hits the coast. I think what makes it so interesting is there is cold hp over top and a 50/50 block. This is one of the ways we can get something underneath us. Probably the most promising run for pre-14 snow I've seen. And it might blow up into a happy hour blizzard @ 18z and then go poof at 0z. We do this dance well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 If dc doesn't hit a 2" storm before the 4 year anniversary then there are things going on behind the scenes that cannot be explained except maybe in some back alley room in the French quarter. 3-year anniversary of Commutageddon will be on Jan. 26th, 2014. Hard to believe that's the last time DCA broke 2" for a single event. Even though others in the metro area (especially the farther out you live) have cracked that line, that's the last area-wide event as such. We've had two events now (March 5-6 and Dec. 10) that stand out as notable "failures" for getting such an area-wide moderate snowfall when it looked quite possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 I think what makes it so interesting is there is cold hp over top and a 50/50 block. This is one of the ways we can get something underneath us. Probably the most promising run for pre-14 snow I've seen. And it might blow up into a happy hour blizzard @ 18z and then go poof at 0z. We do this dance well. Arctic air = great ratios = 50:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 GFS has an interesting look next monday. Arctic front with an unusual amount of moisture streaming in front and also a decent h5 pattern with relavtively flat compressed flow above us and vorticity at the base of the trough. The moist frontal passage is suspect but the overall look could bring a small surprise. Is this actually the same general system that was supposed to be the NYE event in earlier runs of the GFS? Same general time period, different evolution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Is this actually the same general system that was supposed to be the NYE event in earlier runs of the GFS? Same general time period, different evolution? Not exactly. That was a southern stream system. GFS is now squashing any southern stream activity with the PV bulging southward. A couple runs showed the two streams phasing for NYE/NYD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2013 Author Share Posted December 22, 2013 Arctic air = great ratios = 50:1?I was thinkin 40-45:1 tops but I'll go with what you said.GFS keeps post new years looking prime for something to break the 2" drought. Plenty of ss moisture and cold air around. I'm trying not to go all in and I haven't yet but if this type of pattern keeps showing the day after xmas I'm going to be in rare form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Not exactly. That was a southern stream system. GFS is now squashing any southern stream activity with the PV bulging southward. A couple runs showed the two streams phasing for NYE/NYD. I see...so related, but not exactly the same. Interesting how it's gone back and forth with how that evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2013 Author Share Posted December 22, 2013 Not exactly. That was a southern stream system. GFS is now squashing any southern stream activity with the PV bulging southward. A couple runs showed the two streams phasing for NYE/NYD. Yea, this is a new look. I might be wrong but I don't remember an arctic front aligned like this in previous runs. It's a good setup to maximize being on the n side of a weak vort. Highly suspect run but fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Wow...gfs has jyo at 0 in the super duper extended....seems extreme....but then again it was 70 this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.