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November 2013 pattern and discussion

WxJordan

By WxJordan,
in Southeastern States

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

A warm Nov. allows the woodpeckers to mate and have their young, which immediately look for some nice siding to eat!  Beware the warm Nov.  A nice average Nov. with lots of cads would suit me just fine.  Late fall football weather with some days around Tday socked in with clouds and drizzle will feel much like a nice winter, without having to be unusually cold.  The long range wants to bank in some wedges, and I say do it!!  T

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
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Maybe I'm grasping at staws but today's indices look like they are trying to move in the right direction by mid month. If they actually do this we may see the effects (colder patter) by the end of the month.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

The NAO and AO looks like that. The PNA looks like it wants to take a vacation in the negative territory.
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Stovepipe

Stovepipe

Posted
Posted

A warm Nov. allows the woodpeckers to mate and have their young, which immediately look for some nice siding to eat!  Beware the warm Nov.  A nice average Nov. with lots of cads would suit me just fine.  Late fall football weather with some days around Tday socked in with clouds and drizzle will feel much like a nice winter, without having to be unusually cold.  The long range wants to bank in some wedges, and I say do it!!  T

 

3CFcHZU.gif

 

As soon as I managed to patch up the first glory hole from the attic, the peckers went and made a new one on the other side of the house which is in the chimney box so I can't easily patch it.  I change my stance; warm November bad.  I don't need a brood of woodpeckers in the walls of my house.  NOPE!

 

And uh, yes, teleconnections look to flip mid month.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

The EURO hit the good stuff this morning.

The accompanying Doc ensemble says that the Doc op. must have hit some really good stuff or else needs a real doctor to examine it for hallucinations. Alternatively, the time change somehow screwed Doc up??

No, I didn't stay up for the Euro ensemble. I just woke up by chance but am now headed back to shut-eye. Night night!!

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DCMetroWinston

DCMetroWinston

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If the clouds don't thin out or break soon for the Carolinas and Virginia, High temps are going to be quite a bit lower than forecast. This is a very strong surface wedge, and for a dry wedge, pretty impressive. Temps are still stuck in the middle 40's well south, and may only barely hit 50 in places between the upstate of SC to central VA.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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The new 12Z run of the GFS does NOT show any major warm-ups for our region throughout it's run. The end of the run develops a -PNA with a SE ridge, so it looks warmer then. But temps look to fluctuate just either side of normal for the next couple of weeks. It looked much warmer a couple days ago.

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

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The new 12Z run of the GFS does NOT show any major warm-ups for our region throughout it's run. The end of the run develops a -PNA with a SE ridge, so it looks warmer then. But temps look to fluctuate just either side of normal for the next couple of weeks. It looked much warmer a couple days ago.

have you not heard? winter has been cancelled and spring forecasts are coming out.
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FallsLake

FallsLake

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The new 12Z run of the GFS does NOT show any major warm-ups for our region throughout it's run. The end of the run develops a -PNA with a SE ridge, so it looks warmer then. But temps look to fluctuate just either side of normal for the next couple of weeks. It looked much warmer a couple days ago.

But right at the end (day16 - fantasy land) it looks like some pretty cold air is about to come into the US with a push towards the east/SE. This will totally change but fun to look at. 

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
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Whatever happens in November, whether warm or cold, will probably not matter much for the upcoming winter imo. Just enjoy it howwver it turns out.

 

Exactly, Larry.  Continue to preach contentment, sir.

 

Why does no one ever ask, "Does what happen in May affect the weather in June?"  Or, "How many studies have been done on the ENSO state in June and its correlation to sensible weather in August?"

 

Only around this time of the year do we begin to grasp at any straws we can to predict either a cold or warm winter (whichever is our preference).  It just goes to show how much of a vested interest many people have in that rarest of all weather types here in the SE, snow.  :)

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dsaur

dsaur

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The new 12Z run of the GFS does NOT show any major warm-ups for our region throughout it's run. The end of the run develops a -PNA with a SE ridge, so it looks warmer then. But temps look to fluctuate just either side of normal for the next couple of weeks. It looked much warmer a couple days ago.

It's been loaded with wedges for some time.  I think a good strong cad makes it feel much colder than it is, and very winter like.  We just need some clouds and drizzle, and if the average by months end was normal or a bit above it wouldn't bother me, with some nice E Ne wind days piling in.  T

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Met1985

Met1985

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Exactly, Larry.  Continue to preach contentment, sir.

 

Why does no one ever ask, "Does what happen in May affect the weather in June?"  Or, "How many studies have been done on the ENSO state in June and its correlation to sensible weather in August?"

 

Only around this time of the year do we begin to grasp at any straws we can to predict either a cold or warm winter (whichever is our preference).  It just goes to show how much of a vested interest many people have in that rarest of all weather types here in the SE, snow.  :)

Excellent point about us living in the SE and starting to get worried about snow in November. As I have mentioned there has been several occasions were we were warm for November then switched to colder in December. We usually switched to colder a lot of times right after Christmas.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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Posted

It's been loaded with wedges for some time. I think a good strong cad makes it feel much colder than it is, and very winter like. We just need some clouds and drizzle, and if the average by months end was normal or a bit above it wouldn't bother me, with some nice E Ne wind days piling in. T

Yep, we've seen more CADs this year for sure. Hopefully, that trend will continue. Another thing that I'm seeing that I really like is a gracious plenty moderate/strong high pressure systems moving out of Canada and into the US. One of my main criteria in a non-nickel and dime widespread winter storm is a well-positioned cold HP (no surprise). Seeing a lot of these starting to show up as we move into the winter season is encouraging.

On another note, there's fairly good consensus of the AO falling rapidly toward neutral, the PNA rising into positive territory and the NAO diving negative around mid-month. If you look at today's GFZ and Euro runs, the GFS basically keeps it normal/variable to below at times and the Euro does about the same until it brings the torch at 240.

Reading other threads around the board, it seems like there are a lot of folks on board for a mild 2nd half of November. I have a feeling that may be averted and we end up normal or maybe slightly above.

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dsaur

dsaur

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Yep, we've seen more CADs this year for sure. Hopefully, that trend will continue. Another thing that I'm seeing that I really like is a gracious plenty moderate/strong high pressure systems moving out of Canada and into the US. One of my main criteria in a non-nickel and dime widespread winter storm is a well-positioned cold HP (no surprise). Seeing a lot of these starting to show up as we move into the winter season is encouraging.

On another note, there's fairly good consensus of the AO falling rapidly toward neutral, the PNA rising into positive territory and the NAO diving negative around mid-month. If you look at today's GFZ and Euro runs, the GFS basically keeps it normal/variable to below at times and the Euro does about the same until it brings the torch at 240.

Reading other threads around the board, it seems like there are a lot of folks on board for a mild 2nd half of November. I have a feeling that may be averted and we end up normal or maybe slightly above.

Yep, watching those highs come down, and into position, has been encouraging.  I don't mind them moving off the coast, in a side swipe, as long as they produce a cad, but I'd like to see some head on collisions, with the 0 line well down in Ga. like the long range has been showing, off and on.  Still, it's early, and to me the best indicator is getting in some cad and drizzle.  If you can get some cad and some light rain, you can get ice and sleet, and no winter is a complete bust with those :)  I got my cad rain last night, after midnight.  It was a welcome surprise when I went out, and found a pretty good wet happening.  Even it it's  not an inch, if you spread out some good drizzle over a few days, the plants will take that just as well :)  Tony

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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Posted

I love it when DT forecasts cold and snow (not that he's "officially" doing it YET), because if he's right, that's awesome. If he's not, then watching the ensuing dumpster fire is awesome too. It's like a win-win.

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