November 2013 Observations & Discussions

[SACRUS]

It's all part of the pattern shift this year toward dominant Pacific blocking from the Atlantic in 2012.

 

13.gif

 

12.gif

 

Yeah it seems like the general theme of a back and forth type pattern of cooler/warmer than normal regimes looks to persist with neither locing in for any prolonged periods.    In other words overall cool 11/23 - 11/30 followed by overall above normal lkely the first week of Dec.  With smaller spurts of back and forths embedded within those weeks.

[IsentropicLift]

And so it begins. 12z ECMWF has a completely southern stream driven low off the SE coast December 3rd.

[uncle W]

Yeah it seems like the general theme of a back and forth type pattern of cooler/warmer than normal regimes looks to persist with neither locing in for any prolonged periods.    In other words overall cool 11/23 - 11/30 followed by overall above normal lkely the first week of Dec.  With smaller spurts of back and forths embedded within those weeks.

most of the analogs on my radar had a mild week the first half of December...60+ is possible if it's an all out torch...if it's like 1964 we'll have a mild Christmas...If it's like 1961 it will be white...Timing is everything especially in December...

[PB GFI]

And so it begins. 12z ECMWF has a completely southern stream driven low off the SE coast December 3rd.

Dont spend too much energy on it , That TROUGH  axis is too far west , look at that trough off the west coast . 

Anything that climbs the coast WILL EASILY draw in warm air .

And if theres a slight doubt , just look at the lack of blocking and that should close it out for you , one can look at the set up and see the pattern doesnt fit  what we all want . 

[IsentropicLift]

Dont spend too much energy on it , That ridge axis is too far west , look at that trough off the west coast . 

Anything that climbs the coast WILL EASILY draw in warm air .

And if theres a slight doubt , just look at the lack of blocking and that should close it out for you , one can look at the set up and see the pattern doesnt fit  what we all want . 

I'm posting banter, calm down.

[PB GFI]

I'm posting banter, calm down.

Dude , Relax yourself , the point was its a bad pattern ,  I could care less what u do .

[Wxoutlooksblog]

And so it begins. 12z ECMWF has a completely southern stream driven low off the SE coast December 3rd.

And unfortunately there's absolutely no cold air left in the eastern US. We are mild.

WX/PT

[SnoSki14]

If the EPO stays largely negative, we could still do ok even under a neutral or positive NAO as long as it's not strongly positive.

With the cold staying in Canada and the northern tier, we will have a nice region of cold air that will gradually keep pushing south through December and into Jan and Feb. We might get a lot of SWFE which of course could be good or bad for us.

If we get any short term blocking then our snow chances go way up.

[IsentropicLift]

And unfortunately there's absolutely no cold air left in the eastern US. We are mild.

WX/PT

The whole system is a joke. No way that a low could amplify up the coast like that with a huge trough in the West.

[jm1220]

The whole system is a joke. No way that a low could amplify up the coast like that with a huge trough in the West.

Still, no one should talk up a snow threat until the troughs and cold can somehow be locked into place. In a progressive pattern like this, the Midwest, lakes, and Northern New England are favored. Frustrating, but that's why we need the real -NAO (not a transient, east based one).

[Wxoutlooksblog]

The whole system is a joke. No way that a low could amplify up the coast like that with a huge trough in the West.

Don't worry about it. It's only a model.

 

A low can move up the coast with a trough in the west. If you have an active southern stream and high heights in the western Altantic it can happen though it's not common.

WX/PT

[IsentropicLift]

Don't worry about it. It's only a model.

 

A low can move up the coast with a trough in the west. If you have an active southern stream and high heights in the western Altantic it can happen though it's not common.

WX/PT

And it can snow in May, I get it.

 

I was just pointing this out because it's the next system we have to watch. Tomorrow was once a day ten event.

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean has the day 9 coastal low.

[SACRUS]

Latest guidance continues to show troughing into the west and some ridging along the east coast into the northeast as we head into December.

 

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/test8.gif

[uncle W]

with the talk of 3" of rain possible here are the wettest storms for November...

...amount...year...dates

9.19"..........1977 11/7-8

5.60"..........1972 11/8

4.23"..........1963 11/6-7

3.75"..........1889 11/8-9

3.62"..........2006 11/7-8

3.38"..........1988 11/19-20

3.37"..........1910 11/3-4

3.19"..........1892 11/15-16

3.09"..........1889 11/27-28

 

[Allsnow]

last two day departures 

 

Nyc -18,-16

Lga  -18,-15

Jfk    -18, -14

Ewr -17, -15

Bdr  -16, -15

[SnoSki14]

last two day departures 

 

Nyc -18,-16

Lga  -18,-15

Jfk    -18, -14

Ewr -17, -15

Bdr  -16, -15

 

You don't see that too often anymore, I think it already puts them in between -1 and -2 for the month.

 

Also thinking models will show a more progressive pattern instead of holding the cold further west because I only see some weak SE ridging to provide a little bit of resistance to it. That Alaskan ridge looks very impressive and if it holds will ensure many more cold air masses this winter. I wonder if that ridging could shift a bit further east and begin to act as a weak west based -NAO block heading forward.

[bluewave]

The latest run of the Euro ensembles are showing slightly above normal temps to start December. The

cold dropping down into the West will probably filter east for week 2.

 

 

[nzucker]

You don't see that too often anymore, I think it already puts them in between -1 and -2 for the month.

Also thinking models will show a more progressive pattern instead of holding the cold further west because I only see some weak SE ridging to provide a little bit of resistance to it. That Alaskan ridge looks very impressive and if it holds will ensure many more cold air masses this winter. I wonder if that ridging could shift a bit further east and begin to act as a weak west based -NAO block heading forward.

That EPO block is impressive and could bring us arctic outbreaks, which have been largely absent in recent winters. NYC hasn't had a below zero reading since January 1994. The average winter low has gone from 5F to around 11F, which has a significant impact on plant life and potentially viruses.

[Allsnow]

New Brunswick broke a record last night. 17 for the low and 18 was the record in 1989

[uncle W]

I looked for years with a warm October and cold November...I chose years with an October near or over 60.0 degrees and a November with an average under 46.0...

year......Oct...Nov...

1920...61.1 44.4

1947...63.6 44.2

1955...59.8 44.3

1959...59.8 45.8

1971...62.7 45.1

1995...61.6 43.6

2007...63.6 45.4

five of the seven had KU events the following winter...Four of the seven had well above average snowfall...one was well below average...two had slightly below average snowfall

[Wxoutlooksblog]

And it can snow in May, I get it.

 

I was just pointing this out because it's the next system we have to watch. Tomorrow was once a day ten event.

No, a low moving up the east coast with a trough in the west is NOT nearly as uncommon as snow in May, not even close!

WX/PT

[bluewave]

The Euro weeklies are going with a December gradient pattern for us with temperatures 

close to normal and not much snow potential the next several weeks. The big -EPO/-PNA

signature will probably keep the coldest departures to our west with colder temps moving east 

from time to time.The best chances for record cold in this pattern will be out near Montana to

the Plains. The NAEFS are in good agreement with the Euro.

 

http://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2013/11/25/ecmwf-weekly-charts/

 

 

 

 

[RedSky]

Second half of december with an ugly southeast ridge on those maps

[SnoSki14]

I just want to see how things play out because remember we all thought November would end up mild, but it instead will end up below normal by a good margin. 

[jm1220]

The Euro weeklies are going with a December gradient pattern for us with temperatures 

close to normal and not much snow potential the next several weeks. The big -EPO/-PNA

signature will probably keep the coldest departures to our west with colder temps moving east 

from time to time.The best chances for record cold in this pattern will be out near Montana to

the Plains. The NAEFS are in good agreement with the Euro.

 

http://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2013/11/25/ecmwf-weekly-charts/

 

 

2013112600_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png

Typical Nina pattern. We really need for the waters of the equatorial East Pacific to warm significantly for us to have a shot at a decent winter. Blocking doesn't look like it will pan out for us anytime soon.

[Kaner587]

12z euro looks much better at day 10 then 00z. I think that the pattern likely relaxes with temps returning to normal or slightly below. The problem is that any storm we get during the next 10-14 days LOOKS like it'll probably be rain for most. What is encouraging is to see the cold that is centered in the western canada and PAC NW bleed east on the 12z euro. We will likely have a gradient pattern, which has been advertised by several mets, especially in the SNE forum. What that means for us remains to be seen. Most likely some chances at frozen, and the solid possibility we walk away at the end of Dec with some snow, although no major frozen storms until the gradient drops south. If this patterns stays in place then we could hope that January would be forgiving in the snow dept. All in all, I don't expect any major torches, although the weak SE ridge signal we have in the med to long range is a wild card, as if this trends stronger, well you know the result. 

[NEXtreme]

There are some mets out there saying the same thing.

Larry Cosgrove:

Weather food for thought....

By the looks of it (vast Alaska Rex block, positive height anomaly just below Greenland, humongous cAk vortex covering much of Canada), we should have a rather exciting weather pattern coming up. Look for energy from near Baja California to merge with a digging impulse through the Intermountain Region. If the computer models (especially the ensemble packages) are right, an important cyclogenesis event in south central Texas on or around December 6 will head along the Gulf Coast, then up the Eastern Seaboard. There is a -chance- for both a significant precipitation event and broad intrusion of bitter cold air -if- teleconnections in the Pacific and Atlantic Basins play out like I think they will.

[NEXtreme]

Both 12z runs of the GFS and EURO showing arctic air returning by next week.

[atownwxwatcher]

 

Looks like the coldest air will be to the west as things moderate in the east....