November 2013 Observations & Discussions

[SnoSki14]

How are we overperforming?..its low 30s right in target

 

I'm basing it on what I see from the models, I'm interested to see the observed vs. the expected temperatures. 

[famartin]

That does not answer my question. I asked when was the last time we had a powerful arctic front sweep in during november with squalls?

 

I was just addressing your sentence which seemed to view it unusual to get snow before December 1.  I don't know the answer to your question.

[Sundog]

1051 nyc down to 33

ewr 33

lga 34

jfk 34

New Brunswick 32

I've had partially melted snow that's been frozen solid for over an hour on my window sill. How is any station still reporting temperatures above freezing?

[snywx]

23F here w/ on & off Flurries/Lgt Snow

[Sundog]

I remember a few times in the 90s we got afternoon snow showers that came down from the northwest around the time of Thanksgiving. But not a powerful Arctic front like this. The days I'm remembering had highs in the 40s.

[NEXtreme]

Temps are really plunging now here in bloomfield NJ. Was 28 nearly 30 minutes ago, now down to 25!

Btw my forecast low for tonight is 24.

[SnoSki14]

I don't recall too many cold Novembers like this especially around Thanksgiving. Thanksgiving always seemed fairly mild for several years now ranging anywhere from the low 60s to near 50F. This pattern definitely has some sting and we're going to see some huge negative departures that will guarantee a below average month, which is a surprise to me.

 

No way did I believe after those two super warm days to start the month and the warm outlook on the models that this month would end up below normal. That -EPO and the subsequent ridging up toward Alaska has generated true cold, arctic shots for this month that we haven't seen in a long time. This beats the slightly below normal crap in years past after a frontal passage that people use to call cold or arctic air. 

[Guest Pamela]

Central Park is -0.3 F DFN and Islip is -0.2 F DFN for the first 22 days of November...so it has been seasonably cold. The last 8 days of the month should average below normal; possibly well below normal, and the month will almost certainly end up at least 1 to 2 degrees below normal.

[Guest Pamela]

That does not answer my question. I asked when was the last time we had a powerful arctic front sweep in during november with squalls?

Not too often; maybe every 4 or 5 years or so.

[user13]

Finally below 32 here in Queens

[Kaner587]

The long range GFS is very interesting. Obv should be taken with a grain of salt but the pattern overall looks about as good as you can ask for the beginning of meteorologic winter. It seems like the west coast ridge/east coast trough stays in place through the 16 days. The nice thing is this has Ensemble support from GEFS as well as the euro. Several storm chances and below to well below normal temps. I think winter gets off to an exciting start. How much snow we actually finish this period off with remains to be seen but I certainly like our chances.

[RedSky]

That does not answer my question. I asked when was the last time we had a powerful arctic front sweep in during november with squalls?

Day before thanksgiving 2005 strong arctic front with squalls up to 1-2" in many areas

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2005/us1123.php

[famartin]

31 at NYC at 1151PM.

[Rjay]

29 southern nassau co

[Rjay]

31 at NYC at 1151PM.

Crap I guess we miss by one degree

[Kaner587]

Made it to 31 at the park. Likely sub 30 at next obs 0051.

[famartin]

Record low max 2mor looks more likely

Made it to 31 at the park. Ensures we miss tying the record low max, but means we likely get a sub 32 degree day out of it, and the 2nd coldest day ever on Nov 23rd.

 

It might make 30 by 1159, which would at least tie the record low max.  Don't see a 2 degree drop possible though, so it won't break it.

[user13]

Made it to 31 at the park. Likely sub 30 at next obs 0051.

For sure 30.8 here in Queens falling like a rock

[Rjay]

Anyone have ISP current temp?..think their record low max is 34

[famartin]

Anyone have ISP current temp?..think their record low max is 34

Their period of record is also only 29 years.

[Rjay]

Courtesy of don

Albany: 24°, 1938

Bridgeport: 35°, 2000

Danbury: 32°, 1970

Islip: 34°, 1989

New York City:

...Central Park: 30°, 1880

...JFK: 35°, 1970

...LGA: 34°, 1956

Newark: 34°, 1938

Poughkeepsie: 32°, 1989

Trenton: 37°, 2000

White Plains: 31°, 1972

[Rjay]

Their period of record is also only 29 years.

Still impressive. .Newark's is much older than that

[MJO812]

31 and really windy

[MJO812]

Long range GFS looks beautiful. 2 chances of snow near the 5th and near the 9th.

[SnoSki14]

Long range GFS looks beautiful. 2 chances of snow near the 5th and near the 9th.

 

It's one of the best starts to December as you're gonna get. I hope Wednesday's storm drop over 2" of rain so we can start reversing the prolonged dryness.

[donsutherland1]

With the midnight temperature at 31° and both the MET and MAV MOS forecasting a high of 31°, NYC has a chance to have its first November day with a subfreezing maximum temperature since November 28, 1996. Both sets of MOS forecast a low temperature of 22° for November 25.

 

Some NYC data:

 

[Chaser25973]

With the midnight temperature at 31° and both the MET and MAV MOS forecasting a high of 31°, NYC has a chance to have its first November day with a subfreezing maximum temperature since November 28, 1996. Both sets of MOS forecast a low temperature of 22° for November 25.

 

Some NYC data:

 

 

 

 

Don, how to do cold Novembers usually fare for snow for NYC analog-wise?

[MJO812]

29 right now in Brooklyn

[user13]

27.8 already

[Kaner587]

the temp is dropping very quickly down to around 27 in manhattan.