NEOH Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Not that is matters... but the other image zoomed for comparison purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This is quickly reminding me of the days leading up to Jan 5th, except its the euro teasing us instead of the gfs. This time at least I've factored in my mind rain.....Just fun to watch trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Sure, anything's possible, but I have chosen to embrace the dark side. It's probably just not our year to see something major. It will be one of those "historic" winters that, relatively, was hugely disappointing for us. still 108-120 before low is positioned to screw us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 you got profiles for 108 dare I ask Close call... but crashes quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Close call... but crashes quickly. that's what wxbell shows. surface temps flash to upper 30s for a few hours then crash to 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 damn euro has to go and get dethroned by the lesser models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro has a crippling ice storm for us. Dang! Sent from my XT1060 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 we need weaker, we need less phase, we need more confluence, we need a drink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 that's what wxbell shows. surface temps flash to upper 30s for a few hours then crash to 20s These op runs are fun to follow, but the ensemble's are probabably a better way to go until this gets within 3 days or so. I'll go with the normal Ohio mentality - expect the worst and hope for the best. Heck, the law of averages has to catch up with us at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro has a crippling ice storm for us. Dang! Sent from my XT1060 did you check if it's more 'sleety' vs. freezing rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 by the way, its snowing out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 These op runs are fun to follow, but the ensemble's are probabably a better way to go until this gets within 3 days or so. I'll go with the normal Ohio mentality - expect the worst and hope for the best. Heck, the law of averages has to catch up with us at some point euro ens should be interesting. Obviously the closer you get to the event the smaller the spread will be from the OP, but it could still give us a clue one way or other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Thinking back to March 2008, the models latched on to a significant snowstorm at day 5 and never wavered. I never felt more sure of a major hit than during that storm, there were no major waffles on the models, just run after run of continual amazing hits. You'd think the next time the I -71 corridor in Ohio is jackpot we'll see prolonged model support beforehand. Let's face it, a major snowstorm centered over I-71 from CVG to CMH to CLE isn't the most frequent occurrence. I don't think a storm just "trends" to that solution, like it can for folks in the central lakes, which is a much more common storm track anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 did you check if it's more 'sleety' vs. freezing rain? Hard to say. It takes 850s to +5 so hard to imagine its sleet. But will have to wait for AccuWeather soundings. I imagine some of the 3/4" is sleet. Sent from my XT1060 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Buckeye....maybe my eyes are deceiving me...but that 108 profile showed the surface temps below freezing...not in the upper 30's. 850's right at critical mass...with the 540 line up near Lima! Is that correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 120 hour 12z runs jma uk nogap ggem gfs euro It's not a terrible position for a winterstorm slp for cmh , (except for the gfs and ggem), the problem is how does it get there, how far north into KY or OH before it makes a right turn. All of them are close calls except for the ggem and gfs. Unfortunately for us the ggem has been doing a great job lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Buckeye....maybe my eyes are deceiving me...but that 108 profile showed the surface temps below freezing...not in the upper 30's. 850's right at critical mass...with the 540 line up near Lima! Is that correct? I was talking about the wxbell map, not the one neoh posted. Yes his would be best case scenario for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z euro. Looping thru surface temps it briefly jumps us above freezing but we crash fast. I would imagine a lot of the frozen on that is some kind of mix on the southern end. still not horrible but it's 4th down and 22, 3 secs on the clock and our third string QB is in. Do you have this for WNY? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 120 hour 12z runs jma uk nogap ggem gfs euro It's not a terrible position for a winterstorm slp for cmh , (except for the gfs and ggem), the problem is how does it get there, how far north into KY or OH before it makes a right turn. All of them are close calls except for the ggem and gfs. Unfortunately for us the ggem has been doing a great job lately. Wow this is nice, thanks for putting this together. Model spread is not to far apart given how its still 4-5 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Wow this is nice, thanks for putting this together. Model spread is not to far apart given how its still 4-5 days away. this is the furthest northeast extent of the WTOD on the euro, it comes in fast and on the next panel it's already in the 20s across most of OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 this is the furthest northeast extent of the WTOD on the euro, it comes in fast and on the next panel it's already in the 20s across most of OH Thanks! I got this with a free trial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I don't think a southeast move is likely, but I also don't think it's out of the realm for a further southeast and weaker low. This is not the type of system that is climbing north out of the gulf on a deep negatively tilted trough. The trough does try to go negative but it's relatively shallow because the building heights in front are limited with the PV and confluence in place. Build that confluence stronger or tweak the PV placement and it's 50 miles this way or that, which to us here in cmh is a world of difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Thanks! I got this with a free trial. I don't care what anyone says....when it come to weather Columbus is the ON THE LINE king. Every fricken storm is a nail biter ...EVERY STINKING ONE. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I don't care what anyone says....when it come to weather Columbus is the ON THE LINE king. Every fricken storm is a nail biter ...EVERY STINKING ONE. lol I hear ya. We usually are to, especially with the way the pattern has been in regards to synoptic. Nearly 80-90% of my snow is from lake effect/enhancement. Thank god for Lake Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I don't think a southeast move is likely, but I also don't think it's out of the realm for a further southeast and weaker low. This is not the type of system that is climbing north out of the gulf on a deep negatively tilted trough. The trough does try to go negative but it's relatively shallow because the building heights in front are limited with the PV and confluence in place. Build that confluence stronger or tweak the PV placement and it's 50 miles this way or that, which to us here in cmh is a world of difference. I've learned from living in this area, that models often underestimate how fast the transfer to the coastal takes place. It is often much faster than modeled and would result in less warm air moving in aloft keeping the precipitation mainly in the frozen form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 ALL hope is not lost. From ILN office: ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FROM TUESDAYAFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...ITIS NOT POSSIBLE TO RELIABLY FORECAST SPECIFIC IMPACTS.HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE THE CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INSOME LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTHWEST OHIO)...WITH SOMEFREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN MAY ALSOOCCUR...MAINLY IN KENTUCKY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 ALL hope is not lost. From ILN office: ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO RELIABLY FORECAST SPECIFIC IMPACTS. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE THE CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN SOME LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTHWEST OHIO)...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN MAY ALSO OCCUR...MAINLY IN KENTUCKY. Looks like things may be trending SE a bit..i really hope were all snow and not freezing rain..that would be quite a bit of frz rain!! Temps on tuesday look to be really close to 32!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Haha GFS says not so fast my friends lol Euro follows suit. Unreal. Last night's runs everyone committing weenie suicide. Tonight's runs of the Euro and GFS put us back in the game. Didn't get to check the other models. Any ohio posters up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Haha GFS says not so fast my friends lol Euro follows suit. Unreal. Last night's runs everyone committing weenie suicide. Tonight's runs of the Euro and GFS put us back in the game. Didn't get to check the other models. Any ohio posters up? Just got up. Good to hear. Just hope its a trend & not a blip. 12z today will tell the tale. It sounds like 6z GFS was southeast as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Just got up. Good to hear. Just hope its a trend & not a blip. 12z today will tell the tale. It sounds like 6z GFS was southeast as well?6z has the 2m temps below zero, but the 850's are still a tad too warm but, yes, it went SE. Now see if the 12z runs hold serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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