wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Man, I really am trying to make what I believe is the best forecast at this time (*cough* maybe a NW trend a bit...* cough*)... but that was an AWESOME post!!! Ah the life of central Ohio snow lovers....Gotta pick ourselves up sometimes (all the time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 gfs is big improvement at 500. Still too far nw but if what it shows at 500 is the beginning of a trend, it'll take care of itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 looks like it's back to an icy solution....potentially lots of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 looks like it's back to an icy solution....potentially lots of ice Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like it took a big step towards the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like it took a big step towards the Canadian. Now let's see if the Canadian goes nw haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like it took a big step towards the Canadian. its a very close track...actually a good track just too warm at 850 of course the ggem went a bit back west...lol oh well the fun continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 What? Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? It tells you just how badly we've been beaten by the nw trend this year. We've lost our collective sacks. Look at us, we are throwing in the towel on a storm that is still 5-6 days away from being in position to come out of the gulf states. We are talking NEXT Tuesday at the earliest....we still have Friday and the entire weekend to go thru. Energy is still out in the pacific with the carnival cruisers and there are 2 or 3 smaller storms modeled in front of it affecting the Midwest and eastcoast between now and Monday. Speaking of which, the models have already screwed up one of those storms and suddenly the Mid Atlantic is in play for accumulating snow Monday. On top of all of this we have seemed to forgotten that there ARE models giving us a solid track and big snows...the ggem (which has been rock solid consistent), and the ukmet, The euro ens are southeast and the gefs have been consistently southeast. Now suddenly we decide that the gfs OP is without flaw beyond 120 hours, (the same gfs that was consistently giving us a snowstorm January 5th up until about 48 hours out). On top of that the euro burps nw, and what do we do? We all sh*t our collective OV briefs, pick up our snow shovels and walk away like beaten dogs. For godsakes gentlemen go down swinging, don't leave the fight before the energy has even been sampled. Look what happened last weekend, we were all whining about how we'd get the usual dusting to an inch and we came out of the weekend with 10". Anyone see that one coming? Anyone? Oh yea wait....the GGEM did! The euro said 3". I will not give up nor should you...and if that low does decides to visit CMH at least it'll be passing over men with their sacks intact. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro not too bad. not as juicy as it was. But definitely a good trend on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro still not there for us but it definitely came se of the 12z... The ens are still significantly southeast GFS, not sure what to think....one run it's a raging icestorm the next a driving rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This thread is a great read. I hope you guys get buried soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 euro thru 144... that stripe along the ohio river is that wave around 96 hrs. euro has come north with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This thread is a great read. I hope you guys get buried soon. I hope everyone in the sub forum gets buried too. Is it possible one storm can give everyone some love? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 euro thru 144... that stripe along the ohio river is that wave around 96 hrs. euro has come north with it You feeling it buckeye? After being away from the models all night I think we held serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 you can see the diff between the gfs 00z (which was colder and further southeast) vs. the 06z which came in warm and nw. the confluence is still there on the 06z which is a good thing, but the gfs handles the energy in the trough totally different, rushing a piece out ahead and going neg tilt which of course would be a bad thing. It's a pretty big change from one run to another, so I'm skeptical but we'll see if that's a trend it keeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 one of the reasons I haven't let go of this yet and think it's too early to do so. (not just that I'm a stubborn weenie). These are the euro ens for 120 and 132 from 00z. The greatest cluster go from central TN to western VA. Dramatically southeast, not just a little bit. It means there must be some other options on the table that are much more suppressed. Granted I'd feel better if the gfs started to make a move in a better direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Granted I'd feel better if the gfs started to make a move in a better direction. Where do the GEFS stand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Where do the GEFS stand? still southeast of OP, but they have come nw from themselves....so a bit of a redflag there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 still southeast of OP, but they have come nw from themselves....so a bit of a redflag there Crap. LOL At least it's 4 days out and not 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z gfs Game, set, match. Can someone else recall a time that the GFS scored a coupe (obviously basing this on thinking the Canadian and Euro will be going west today as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Figures. The only time the GFS scores a coupe is when it's screwing us over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Game, set, match. Can someone else recall a time that the GFS scored a coupe (obviously basing this on thinking the Canadian and Euro will be going west today as well. well I said a couple days ago IF the gfs scores a coupe, this would be the way it does it, by having the furthest nw solution. I don't think I've ever seen the gfs score a coupe being the farthest southeast. If ggem caves west, I'll prepare myself for rain...but I'll still watch models thru 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Figures. The only time the GFS scores a coupe is when it's screwing us over. Yep, of course. Time to root on the NW trend on the Feb. 3rd wave. LOL That will trend SE probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'm going to be rooting for an early spring if we get missed again on a big storm. 1x is enough, 2x is awful, but it may be 3x just a week after that. That's enough to sour me on winter for a good long while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'm going to be rooting for an early spring if we get missed again on a big storm. 1x is enough, 2x is awful, but it may be 3x just a week after that. That's enough to sour me on winter for a good long while. I couldn't agree more! I hate empty promises more than watching a looping GFS that just shows a mild pattern with no shots of snow. What a rocking February! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 And the Canadian caves. Game. Set. Match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Careful with those Euro snow maps. They often include freezing rain and sleet as snow. Sent from my XT1060 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 ggem looks a lot like the 00z....trackwise, but looks warmer???? at 108 it's around Nashville, at 120 its Buffalo....no idea what's in between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 And the Canadian caves. Game. Set. Match. I'd like to see the panels between 108 and 120 first.... admit, it looks warmer but the track looks about the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'd like to see the panels between 108 and 120 first.... admit, it looks warmer but the track looks about the same Saw the rain/snow line up to Toledo and assumed a NW shift. You're right, track looks very similar. Still...not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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