dilly84 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 .5° and 3.1° when the highest amount of liquid falls. But still a step from the 0z. Hope it's a trend. 2 runs in a row now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 .5° and 3.1° when the highest amount of liquid falls. But still a step from the 0z. Hope it's a trend. 2 runs in a row now.Hope so! I wonder if euro was colder. And i havnt seen anything on canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Hope so! I wonder if euro was colder. And i havnt seen anything on canadian. Euro temps look the same to me - not too bad, but need to be a tad colder, IMHO. What a difference a day makes regarding the GFS - and 3 more days to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Euro temps look the same to me - not too bad, but need to be a tad colder, IMHO. What a difference a day makes regarding the GFS - and 3 more days to go! Very cautiously optimistic. It could easily go back the other way 2day & 2morow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Very cautiously optimistic. It could easily go back the other way 2day & 2morow. Yea, I'm not latching onto anything until Sunday night. If the SE trend holds or continues then it is game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think everyone expects a move back NW, but the other thread sure got quieter. The main issue right now is not so much track (we've had worse), but that it'll still be too warm for a good snow, though, at least on the GFS, snow totals have increased the last 4 runs. Still too early to make a prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think everyone expects a move back NW, but the other thread sure got quieter. The main issue right now is not so much track (we've had worse), but that it'll still be too warm for a good snow, though, at least on the GFS, snow totals have increased the last 4 runs. Still too early to make a prediction. I was giving it til today but the way the models have been handling the track the past couple days I'm gonna wait til tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 looking at everything, there's some good, there's some bad... but overall I'm not feeling it anymore or less than I was yesterday. euro... looks about the same to me maybe a tad east ggem...definitely east a little uk....east and weak gfs...a bit southeast but colder the good news is the ggem ens were southeast of the OP..... bad news is the gfs ens were actually a bit nw, (which could be an ugly flag). The euro ens were a tad southeast of the OP. The 6z dgex is way nw...takes low into IN....that might be a clue as to where the nam is going...but not necessarily. The trend that I'm seeing that might be good is for a weaker low. In fact many of the models weaken the low as it lifts from the TN valley. That allows the northern stream to bully it east. This is what the UK is doing. Like I said, we aren't going to get a magic shift southeast in the track for no reason, we need something like a weaker low to do it...and that might be our best bet moving forward. A weaker low doesn't imply the system will still be less juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 looking at everything, there's some good, there's some bad... but overall I'm not feeling it anymore or less than I was yesterday. euro... looks about the same to me maybe a tad east ggem...definitely east a little uk....east and weak gfs...a bit southeast but colder the good news is the ggem ens were southeast of the OP..... bad news is the gfs ens were actually a bit nw, (which could be an ugly flag). The euro ens were a tad southeast of the OP. The 6z dgex is way nw...takes low into IN....that might be a clue as to where the nam is going...but not necessarily. The trend that I'm seeing that might be good is for a weaker low. In fact many of the models weaken the low as it lifts from the TN valley. That allows the northern stream to bully it east. This is what the UK is doing. Like I said, we aren't going to get a magic shift southeast in the track for no reason, we need something like a weaker low to do it...and that might be our best bet moving forward. A weaker low doesn't imply the system will still be less juicy. Considering where we were at 12z yesterday it ain't all bad. And we still have a few days to go. Be interesting to see what the 12z runs model. I think we need to get the system out of the way that's moving through Chicago now. But I do agree, we really just need a weaker low, although I don't think a SE shift is out of the question and neither is a NW shift. It's basically all on the table still. I gave a heads up on my Facebook about this storm days ago, and I'd love to give an update but I'm not confident in anything yet. PS wth has happened to Chris Bradley? He's starting to act like Margusity. I give Chris hell on his Facebook about everyday. He started his "Geek posts" cause I kept saying he couldn't read a model cause he kept posting clown maps. Don't get me wrong they're fun to look at but to someone who doesn't understand models, they see that then think for sure we are getting a big storm and as a met he shouldn't be posting that type of stuff when the majority of his followers don't understand weather, they just listen to their weatherman, in this case, Chris Bradley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think everyone expects a move back NW, but the other thread sure got quieter. The main issue right now is not so much track (we've had worse), but that it'll still be too warm for a good snow, though, at least on the GFS, snow totals have increased the last 4 runs. Still too early to make a prediction. The storm thread is playing the it's too early card now and got extremely quiet as the low is looking more favorable for a more southeast track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think everyone expects a move back NW, but the other thread sure got quieter. The main issue right now is not so much track (we've had worse), but that it'll still be too warm for a good snow, though, at least on the GFS, snow totals have increased the last 4 runs. Still too early to make a prediction. Your right..it did get quirt over there...so i knew without looking something was going on.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The storm thread is playing the it's too early card now and got extremely quiet as the low is looking more favorable for a more southeast track. I don't necessarily think the LOW is more favorable for a SE track. Buckeye is accurate in saying it's weaker. While there has been a SE movement, the weaker modeling of the low is allowing the cold air to win the battle. Although we still need it colder. Definitely do not want a massive ice storm, which is also still on the table, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 All I can say is that it's a net positive we're still talking about this one today. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Considering where we were at 12z yesterday it ain't all bad. And we still have a few days to go. Be interesting to see what the 12z runs model. I think we need to get the system out of the way that's moving through Chicago now. But I do agree, we really just need a weaker low, although I don't think a SE shift is out of the question and neither is a NW shift. It's basically all on the table still. I gave a heads up on my Facebook about this storm days ago, and I'd love to give an update but I'm not confident in anything yet. PS wth has happened to Chris Bradley? He's starting to act like Margusity. I give Chris hell on his Facebook about everyday. He started his "Geek posts" cause I kept saying he couldn't read a model cause he kept posting clown maps. Don't get me wrong they're fun to look at but to someone who doesn't understand models, they see that then think for sure we are getting a big storm and as a met he shouldn't be posting that type of stuff when the majority of his followers don't understand weather, they just listen to their weatherman, in this case, Chris Bradley. I know, I never said it was all bad, in fact it isn't bad at all compared to yesterday, but it's also far from the other end. All things about equal to a bit better.... how's that? lol. Look at it this way, the nam hasn't even gotten ahold of this puppy, and you know it's going to do some crazy stuff with it. At this moment in time, I'd still rather be in indy or Toledo than here for snow. Chicago is on the other end, they are watching the prospects for a wound up system cutting thru western OH decrease...which is why they may have gotten quieter...but even that option is still on the table. Yea CB reminds me of when Larry Cosgrove was on channel 6 here. I loved watching LC because he fed the weenie in me...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I like larry a lot. He's on my facebook. Kinda shocked me he posted the low track yesterday as if he knew 100% sure where it was going. I commented it too and said it was too early for that. Chris has gotten bad with overhyping. It's one thing when you're a couple days out and the models agree to a big snow etc but 6 days out posting weenie maps showing 20" in CMH? He should know better. It's rough to get a foot here let alone 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 All I'm really trying to say is I'm glad the northwest trend parade got rained on for a run or two so people may go back to discussing something other than qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 All I'm really trying to say is I'm glad the northwest trend parade got rained on for a run or two so people may go back to discussing something other than qpf.I'm just glad we are in the game still and there's finally a reason to post lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I was expecting the nam to be much worse like as in blowing up a 980 over Dayton....still not good for us but it looks like it's still trying to resolve the lead energy in the trough...which is in two pieces, plus additional energy on the back side. Still could go either way....that alone is a win for us on the se flanks...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 looks like 12zgfs held serve with 06z....possibly a touch warmer, but it is also weaker with the low... so not bad, especially considering the gefs were nw at 6z. Still has an icy look along and west of I-71 but a track that close to us makes me wonder if the gfs is too cold. gfs 2m....also was 1005 at this point on 6z....realizing the details are worthless at this point, but when you're on the line...it's all we got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 looks like 12zgfs held serve with 06z....possibly a touch warmer, but it is also weaker with the low... so not bad, especially considering the gefs were nw at 6z. Still has an icy look along and west of I-71 but a track that close to us makes me wonder if the gfs is too cold. gfs 2m....also was 1005 at this point on 6z....realizing the details are worthless at this point, but when you're on the line...it's all we got Cold high pressure over Maine. You're going to get a good thump of something wintry out ahead...even if you briefly warm thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Cold high pressure over Maine. You're going to get a good thump of something wintry out ahead...even if you briefly warm thereafter. possibly CW, but I'd rather have a stronger high north/northwest, there's no such thing as CAD in CMH...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Canadian looks slower and weaker. Tough to tell what happens between 96 and 108 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Canadian looks slower and weaker. Tough to tell what happens between 96 and 108 hours. yup, a significant weakening only 1010 at 96 hours so it's colder....guessing we'd be all snow. Bad part is qpf drops a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Qpf does drop but the last thing I really am concerned about is qpf. It's going to be decent amounts it just has to be snow. I do like the gfs for this mostly because it seems to be the most reasonable considering the cold air coming in behind the southern storm sun-mon. Also seeing the sun-mon storm for the south trend colder makes me think that it's a strong enough cold air mass to keep this a snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Canadian looks slower and weaker. Tough to tell what happens between 96 and 108 hours. it looks like it gets to the KY,WV,OH point and then transfers east....there's still a wtod danger but I haven't seen individual maps yet to know for sure if it's colder than 00z. I would think it would be since a weaker storm means a weaker wtod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 ggem shows widespread 4-8 across IN and OH with the axis of heaviest from Mansfield to Indy, although places in IN, part of that might be from the current system. Low starts around 1002 in north central AL and moves to E. KY and then weakens and transfer pretty rapidly, which saves us from the WTOD but also cuts the juice off. Pick your poison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 ggem shows widespread 4-8 across IN and OH with the axis of heaviest from Mansfield to Indy, although places in IN, part of that might be from the current system. Low starts around 1002 in north central AL and moves to E. KY and then weakens and transfer pretty rapidly, which saves us from the WTOD but also cuts the juice off. Pick your poison Yeah, I'll take less to insure all snow. Although it appears to get washed away a few days later anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Yeah, I'll take less to insure all snow. Although it appears to get washed away a few days later anyway! yea according to the gfs....but the Canadian is colder thru the 10 days, with a couple of light/mod snow chances it looks like. by the way, the gfs ens are a pretty tight match to the OP...but at this point, ens are going to match up pretty close anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 uk looks like the concensus is to bring this to extreme southwestern PA.... how it gets there, how strong it is, how much warmth comes in front, how juicey.....all up for grabs. I could see this being a situation where 24 hours out the 850 line is forecasted along I-71 and ptype issues will still be up in the air. IOW, a typical CMH set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 euro stepped in a good direction... 850 line makes it as far north as I-70 briefly, which is a big improvement... and surface temps stay at or below freezing. Still would imply something messy and mixy vs. all snow....but it's the coldest, best run for us in the last few. good runs this afternoon. We are still riding the edge so hopefully this trend continues and isn't just a burp that corrects itself nw again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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