buckeye Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 good lord the nam is a nightmare....about an inch of rain and 33. if that happens that storm late week better be a BOVS....(biblical ohio valley snowstorm) actually, that one looks good, but we know the drill right lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 good lord the nam is a nightmare....about an inch of rain and 33. if that happens that storm late week better be a BOVS....(biblical ohio valley snowstorm) actually, that one looks good, but we know the drill right lol We both know the NAM is not done coming SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 We both know the NAM is not done coming SE. yep I'm about 80% certain of that. Which is interesting when you consider how cold the nam is relative to it's current track...it seems like any correction se might be an icestorm. some good news, the 500h map on the rgem at 48hrs looks closer to the gfs than the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 looks like gfs mainly held...a tiny nudge northwest of 06z but similar to 00z. No easing of the nerves.... gonna be a long 2 days ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 good lord the nam is a nightmare....about an inch of rain and 33. if that happens that storm late week better be a BOVS....(biblical ohio valley snowstorm) actually, that one looks good, but we know the drill right lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 so ggem looks about the same track as 00z, but it's also a bit stronger...thus a bit warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 so ggem looks about the same track as 00z, but it's also a bit stronger...thus a bit warmer. Yep...not excited about that. Looks like we go over to at least a mix at some point. Not liking that change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 right is 00z, left is 12z.... identical low placement but 850s are warmer. like I said, long 2 days ahead...lol hoping to dodge an icestorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 outside the nam, the concensus for this track is unbelievably strong for a low to track along the WV/OH border. That means we will have no concensus on ptype. If that track holds, this might go down to a nowcast across franklin county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 ukmet 60 and 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Amazing how outside of the NAM, the models are in complete agreement on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 oh c'mon, you've never heard of the BOVS take off of the HOVS take off of the HECS.... that goes back in these forum about 10 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Amazing how outside of the NAM, the models are in complete agreement on track. I think if we were hoping to have some questions answered regarding whether we are in for a snowstorm, icestorm, mix storm, or cold rain storm on Wednesday, we still have no answers. I was really hoping to see ONE big league model shift us safely southeast. I guess the glass half full is we didn't have any jump in the nam camp. Inside of 72 hours now so it'll probably be more about bumps and jogs at this point. Which keeps us on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 oh c'mon, you've never heard of the BOVS take off of the HOVS take off of the HECS.... that goes back in these forum about 10 years Absolutely! That & MECS, SECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 oh c'mon, you've never heard of the BOVS take off of the HOVS take off of the HECS.... that goes back in these forum about 10 years I know all about HECS and HOVS, but I guess I've missed the BOVS. I'm thinking the next 2 storms won't qualify. However, it if there is to be a BOVS, this is the year it could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Clearly the 12z GFS is going further SE. That is a CLASSIC ice storm track for CVG and CMH. I noted the NAM last night and how far NW it was. It has come back SE too, so I'm discounting its 12z solution as it may be in the middle of a trend. Not saying it will end up as cold as the GFS is showing, but it is looking a bit more ominous now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 0z Euro could be an icy nightmare for Columbus. Over 1/2" of ice and the wxbell 6 hourly max 2M temps only show 31/32 for Franklin county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Clearly the 12z GFS is going further SE. That is a CLASSIC ice storm track for CVG and CMH. I noted the NAM last night and how far NW it was. It has come back SE too, so I'm discounting its 12z solution as it may be in the middle of a trend. Not saying it will end up as cold as the GFS is showing, but it is looking a bit more ominous now... I'm not sure I'd agree with that, if you're comparing it to the 06z....I think it bumped nw a tiny bit. However here's a little good news, the 12z GEFS are further east than the OP, which is interesting considering they should be really close at this point. Must mean there are some members pretty far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 A little more good news regarding the potential late week BOVS....the 12z OP cuts it way west but the GEFS says it's an App runner... Brought to you by Buckeye, Keeping Ohio Valley weenie hope alive since 2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Meanwhile, back in Philly, nother 4-8 w/ NO ICE concerns! Lol. Sorry, just had 2 say it. Continue.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 A little more good news regarding the potential late week BOVS....the 12z OP cuts it way west but the GEFS says it's an App runner... Brought to you by Buckeye, Keeping Ohio Valley weenie hope alive since 2001 LMAO!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The GFS looks much weaker in regards to the other models. .53 liquid. The temps would be snow, but not a storm to get pumped about, it'd be your run of the mill 3-6" storm for us. It's basically pick your poison. The NAM is definitely coming SE so I'm not worried there. The GEM isn't too bad. Puts us more on the line but is stronger. I'm anxiously awaiting the EURO. Hoping to see it more close to the GFS in terms of temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 from the short bus model suite, 12z jma takes 1007 low to central WV. Solid hit here. 12z nogaps looks a lot like the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 from the short bus model suite, 12z jma takes 1007 low to central WV. Solid hit here. 12z nogaps looks a lot like the ggem JMA, JMA, JMA.....Didnt u say it was doin well this yr? Also, werent Euro ensembles in WVish area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 JMA, JMA, JMA..... Didnt u say it was doin well this yr? Also, werent Euro ensembles in WVish area? euro ens held with that same look as yesterday (the heart shape)....with the concentration over WV...BUT...there was a little more spread to the nw too. of course that's all moot here shortly. JB says the jma has been doing really well. Usually it has a more amped and north bias I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Buckeye, sorry I meant gone se over past day or so. Was out yesterday and didn't get too look at models much. Sent from my XT1060 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro appears to hold serve. Low in Wheeling, WV at 72 hours. Looks like mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro appears to hold serve. Low in Wheeling, WV at 72 hours. Looks like mostly snow. amazingly similar to 00z.... still briefly brings the 850 line north of us, but for a shorter time than the 00z showed. Also surface temps are a degree or 2 colder. Probably wouldn't be all snow, would probably have sleet and frz rain for a time. overall the 12z runs pretty much held.... better than I expected. Now that we're inside of 72 hours, I wouldn't think there would be much shifting... ILN is gonna have a nightmare forecasting this mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 interestingly wxbell maps for the 12zz euro bring the heaviest axis of snow right across franklin county I-70 special....8-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro appears to hold serve. Low in Wheeling, WV at 72 hours. Looks like mostly snow. Euro didn't look bad. Waiting on the actual text data to take a look at the exact temps. I agree, Buckeye, this one is a nightmare if you live columbus and E/SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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