buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Ouch...nam with a big ice storm. Possibly over 1/2" Sent from my XT1060 I like the trend from 6z...ignoring the surface and just looking at the 500, it is pushing the energy more east than north as it heads up from the plains. The surface will take care of itself it that trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I like the trend from 6z...ignoring the surface and just looking at the 500, it is pushing the energy more east than north as it heads up from the plains. The surface will take care of itself it that trend continues Glad you said this b/c to me it looked like ****e! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Ouch...nam with a big ice storm. Possibly over 1/2" Sent from my XT1060 Wasn't Ganahl calling for an ice storm last night? I'm assuming he is riding the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 FWIW, 12Z NAM looks a touch south to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 FWIW, 12Z NAM looks a touch south to me. I don't know, at the surface it looks almost identical to me to the 6Z run. I would have liked to see some movement SE. I'm really starting to fear a sleet storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Glad you said this b/c to me it looked like ****e! subtle changes grasshopper = big changes when you're riding the edge. The 6z is on the left, the 12z is on the right...same timeframe. The 12z nam is losing/weakening the energy at the se portion of the trough...circled on the 6z. As a result the heights slightly flatten out ahead and the storm would go more east than north. Subtle no doubt....but a favorable change for us if it continues in that direction. Last thing we want is a sharp neg-tilt pocket in that trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Chris Bradley is trumping the euro on his FB stating it called last night's storm accurately. Hope he is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 subtle changes grasshopper = big changes when you're riding the edge. The 6z is on the left, the 12z is on the right...same timeframe. The 12z nam is losing/weakening the energy at the se portion of the trough...circled on the 6z. As a result the heights slightly flatten out ahead and the storm would go more east than north. Subtle no doubt....but a favorable change for us if it continues in that direction. Last thing we want is a sharp neg-tilt pocket in that trough. Thank you. The graphics helped. Wax on, wax off Mr. Miuagie (sp?) LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 nam 84 hours looks like it's calling the ducks to the pond.... I think THAT one will be the bigger deal for us....not that Wednesday is chopped liver, but snow-wise....all the way down to OHweathers stomping ground too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 rgem looks better, probably still mixy but better than 6z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 rgem looks better, probably still mixy but better than 6z... I really don't care if we mix some, kinda expect it at this point, I just don't want an ice storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Just ran BUFKIT on the 12z NAM. It is mostly snow for CMH. 0.34" snow then .18" ice, but heaviest precip falls BARELY as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Just ran BUFKIT on the 12z NAM. It is mostly snow for CMH. 0.34" snow then .18" ice, but heaviest precip falls BARELY as snow. At least the trend is our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12Z GFS trended SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12Z GFS trended SE. kinda glad we have the nam as a counter balance, otherwise I might be sweating the southeast trend... ...actually a nam/gfs compromise would be a nice hit here....probably not pure snow, but a nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 kinda glad we have the nam as a counter balance, otherwise I might be sweating the southeast trend... ...actually a nam/gfs compromise would be a nice hit here....probably not pure snow, but a nice hit Wouldn't be surprised that ILN's next update is that kind of compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wouldn't be surprised that ILN's next update is that kind of compromise. overall so far good on the 12z I was worried when I saw that tick nw on the 6znam and the 6zrgem, but those 2 models are infamously warm and further nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 kinda glad we have the nam as a counter balance, otherwise I might be sweating the southeast trend... ...actually a nam/gfs compromise would be a nice hit here....probably not pure snow, but a nice hit I believe a compromise of the nam/gfs is what the euro shows. If the euro holds steady at 12z it's probably the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 overall so far good on the 12z I was worried when I saw that tick nw on the 6znam and the 6zrgem, but those 2 models are infamously warm and further nw. What did 12z Canadian look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 What did 12z Canadian look like? real close to 00z...low is on the OH WV border...virtually solid consistency... a tad weaker as well...00z was 1005mb 12z is 1007mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 real close to 00z...low is on the OH WV border...virtually solid consistency Snow/ice line is right over top of Franklin County still. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Snow/ice line is right over top of Franklin County still. Unbelievable. yea, I'd hate to have to forecast this. All the 12z mos have cleared up is that a winterstorm WATCH is still a good forecast. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Snow/ice line is right over top of Franklin County still. Unbelievable. Well at least it is weaker so less warming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fogbreath Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Chris Bradley is liking the weekend snow chances too, based on his latest FB post. As my wife has said, as long as it's not a huge ice storm, we can deal. Hoping the Southern OH snow is a good portend for the next week for all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS with a 6"+'er for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 So funny in that other thread. .. models they disregard or totally ignore during other storms that favor them. .they are riding like a wet mule with this storm! !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So funny in that other thread. .. models they disregard or totally ignore during other storms that favor them. .they are riding like a wet mule with this storm! !! Like us with the JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 main storm thread cracks me up.... they should name it, "Feb 4-5 Storm and the argument for the nw trend" I have a feeling if it was showing the axis of heaviest thru Chicago into Detroit, we wouldn't be hearing about poor sampling, convective feedback, and model error... oh well, I guess if this subforum was 80% ohioans we'd do the same thing. By the way...nogaps is further southeast. FWLIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So funny in that other thread. .. models they disregard or totally ignore during other storms that favor them. .they are riding like a wet mule with this storm! !! Greetings from Cincy....thanks for the updates guys, really enjoy reading the thoughts here and on the "Other Thread'. In regard to the "Other Thread" comment-- can understand that...been there done that more times than I care to recall....only to face the reality of giving "them" everything we had hoped for here. But I know where you are coming from. I like the pattern that is developing here in the OV....let's stack 'em up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 uk... the concensus strengthens. Weaker as well from 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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