vespasian70 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Dilly, the NAM looks good for Licking and Coshocton counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Oops, you already uploaded it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm looking and I really don't think 6"+ of snow is likely for Columbus. I still think the global models are suffering from convective feed back issues and are placing the SLP too far SE. The shortwave goes negative tilted over Texas this morning and stays negative tilted as it tracks towards lower MI by Wednesday morning. I just do not buy a weak low pressure tracking from central KY to near PBZ with a shortwave track like that, so I'd give the nod to the NAM/SREF at this point for that reason. Looking deeper, given that low track, I see a 4-6 hour window of snow for Columbus, with the last couple of those hours being marginal (IE, 1 or 2 degrees warmer aloft may mean sleet/zr instead of snow). While yes, even the NAM and 8/22 SREF members spit out 5.9"+ of snow at CMH, from my experience at least, when you have a relatively short window for snow before a changeover and need it to snow like all heck in that window to hit model projections, you're in some trouble. With the 850mb low tracking near or just a tad south of CLE I just have trouble buying heavy snow so far south due to possible mixing/dry slot issues. If the WTOD is just any warmer than currently shown CMH is in trouble. With this all said, and while this won't be popular, I'm going with 2-4" for snow at CMH and 0.2-0.4" of sleet/zr accumulation on top of it. While it is possible the WAA snow performs really well and causes CMH to pass 4", I'll take my odds against it. Flame away. Hopefully the trends this morning are for the weaker/farther south low track, because believe it or not I do actually want you guys to get a good snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm looking and I really don't think 6"+ of snow is likely for Columbus. I still think the global models are suffering from convective feed back issues and are placing the SLP too far SE. The shortwave goes negative tilted over Texas this morning and stays negative tilted as it tracks towards lower MI by Wednesday morning. I just do not buy a weak low pressure tracking from central KY to near PBZ with a shortwave track like that, so I'd give the nod to the NAM/SREF at this point for that reason. Looking deeper, given that low track, I see a 4-6 hour window of snow for Columbus, with the last couple of those hours being marginal (IE, 1 or 2 degrees warmer aloft may mean sleet/zr instead of snow). While yes, even the NAM and 8/22 SREF members spit out 5.9"+ of snow at CMH, from my experience at least, when you have a relatively short window for snow before a changeover and need it to snow like all heck in that window to hit model projections, you're in some trouble. With the 850mb low tracking near or just a tad south of CLE I just have trouble buying heavy snow so far south due to possible mixing/dry slot issues. If the WTOD is just any warmer than currently shown CMH is in trouble. With this all said, and while this won't be popular, I'm going with 2-4" for snow at CMH and 0.2-0.4" of sleet/zr accumulation on top of it. While it is possible the WAA snow performs really well and causes CMH to pass 4", I'll take my odds against it. Flame away. Hopefully the trends this morning are for the weaker/farther south low track, because believe it or not I do actually want you guys to get a good snow! I think you depressed the Central OH crew and they went to bed! At any rate, your call is just as valid as any I've seen tonight. conservative may be the way to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think you depressed the Central OH crew and they went to bed! At any rate, your call is just as valid as any I've seen tonight. conservative may be the way to go... Haha and I thought I went conservative with 4-8 lol. That's why it's called forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Euro did however warm at the 850's for CMH. Not by much but it won't take much. So I guess we are at the wait and see point. It gets up .6 lol. So it'll be close. PHD gets hammered by the euro, while ZZV gets 1/2 and 1/2 like the nam. The NAM and EURO look similar on qpf and placement of the heavy axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Euro did however warm at the 850's for CMH. Not by much but it won't take much. So I guess we are at the wait and see point. It gets up .6 lol. So it'll be close. PHD gets hammered by the euro, while ZZV gets 1/2 and 1/2 like the nam. The NAM and EURO look similar on qpf and placement of the heavy axis. Starting to see a consensus then. I was hoping for more breathing room! How much ice is ZZV getting from the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Starting to see a consensus then. I was hoping for more breathing room! How much ice is ZZV getting from the euro? Umm all zr/ip it looks like lol. WED 00Z 05-FEB -1.6 -0.9 1023 75 94 0.01 561 544 WED 06Z 05-FEB -1.6 0.5 1014 94 99 0.61 558 547 WED 12Z 05-FEB -0.4 1.9 1007 96 68 0.39 548 543 WED 18Z 05-FEB -1.3 -6.7 1013 79 77 0.09 542 531 THU 00Z 06-FEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Umm all zr/ip it looks like lol. WED 00Z 05-FEB -1.6 -0.9 1023 75 94 0.01 561 544 WED 06Z 05-FEB -1.6 0.5 1014 94 99 0.61 558 547 WED 12Z 05-FEB -0.4 1.9 1007 96 68 0.39 548 543 WED 18Z 05-FEB -1.3 -6.7 1013 79 77 0.09 542 531 THU 00Z 06-FEB Crickey! I hope that doesn't verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Crickey! I hope that doesn't verify. Yea. That'd be all bad. But is a little worrisome to see that this close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yea. That'd be all bad. But is a little worrisome to see that this close to it. That's what I'm thinking. Granted, you and I are 35-40 miles N and W of ZZV, but that's not a lot of wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That's what I'm thinking. Granted, you and I are 35-40 miles N and W of ZZV, but that's not a lot of wiggle room. Even phd warms to .8 for a time but that's after a thumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 WED 06Z 05-FEB -2.9 0.6 1014 92 99 0.62 557 546 WED 12Z 05-FEB -2.2 1.2 1007 93 95 0.32 546 540 WED 18Z 05-FEB -2.7 -7.7 1014 78 91 0.13 541 530 here's the numbers for newark :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 WED 06Z 05-FEB -2.9 0.6 1014 92 99 0.62 557 546 WED 12Z 05-FEB -2.2 1.2 1007 93 95 0.32 546 540 WED 18Z 05-FEB -2.7 -7.7 1014 78 91 0.13 541 530 here's the numbers for newark :/ Ice pellets. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ice pellets. LOL NAM numbers for Newark WED 1A 05-FEB -1.9 0.2 1015 97 99 0.67 558 546 WED 7A 05-FEB -0.7 1.4 1008 97 56 0.28 549 543 WED 1P 05-FEB -0.5 -7.3 1012 87 64 0.03 542 532 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Thanks Dilly. Looks like a nowcast event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Thanks Dilly. Looks like a nowcast event here. Yea. Once the HRRR gets ahold of it we'll be able to use that as it performs well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Euro for Newark. http://www.yr.no/place/United_States/Ohio/Ohio_State_University_Newark_Branch/hour_by_hour.html Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Euro for Newark. http://www.yr.no/place/United_States/Ohio/Ohio_State_University_Newark_Branch/hour_by_hour.html Not bad. Idk how accurate that is. What I posted was the actual text data for newark on the ECMWF. Idk. It's probably about time to not worry so much about long range models and focus more on the hrrr and the ruc etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 HPC map looks better for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 FWIW, 06Z NAM pretty much the same as the previous run. Perhaps a tad east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 HPC map isn't bad. Not as confident on the 8" though. Think they got it at 10%. I'll adjust if needed tomorrow. Not too worried right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 HPC map isn't bad. Not as confident on the 8" though. Think they got it at 10%. I'll adjust if needed tomorrow. Not too worried right now. I think after the 06Z GFS I'll hand the baton over to the short range models as you have already said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think after the 06Z GFS I'll hand the baton over to the short range models as you have already said.The 06Z nam only 3-4" smh lol. Luckily it's the 6z. The gfs has been the weakest so I'm not too interested in the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The 06Z nam only 3-4" smh lol graphic.png Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 ILN updated map. Not too different than the previous one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Compared the two over top of each other. They actually expanded the snow south which don't make much sense. Pit just issued a warning for me. BUT... lowered amounts from 5-9" to 3-7" not complaining but it's looking like last weekends snow will be more than this storm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Compared the two over top of each other. They actually expanded the snow south which don't make much sense. Pit just issued a warning for me. BUT... lowered amounts from 5-9" to 3-7" not complaining but it's looking like last weekends snow will be more than this storm lol. Did you see the new fzr map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Did you see the new fzr map? Nope. Probably don't want to lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Nope. Probably don't want to lol LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.