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Let's talk winter!


Steve

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And the 8th through tenth looks like a carbon copy (GFS) Ohio rain...Chicago adds to its burgeoning glacier!

 

according to the ggem, that one is even a rainer for Chicago and 90% of the subforum....then a quick cool down and a big ridge popping in the middle of the country.....maybe spring will spring and all these calls for a rocking FEB will fall flat....

 

of course we'll get our late March blizzard....no doubt

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LOL...and the king reels us back in.

 

yea, it's not just about where the low is at 120, it's also how it gets there.  Euro builds in the confluence pretty hardcore and the low shunts east.   This would be the outside chance to get some snow further south...you can see that in the 500 map...there is no sw to ne oriented front blowing thru...much more zonal.

 

Pondo- the sunday wave trended south..lol

post-622-0-19512100-1391193748_thumb.jpg

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lol...appears euro went southeast  1004 low just south of PIT

 

Not according to the storm thread. Seems like NW trend goggles are still on. Looks like the low tracks from W KY to SE/Central PA.

 

While the king has faltered occasionally this year... it's the one model you want in your camp.

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yea, it's not just about where the low is at 120, it's also how it gets there.  Euro builds in the confluence pretty hardcore and the low shunts east.   This would be the outside chance to get some snow further south...you can see that in the 500 map...there is no sw to ne oriented front blowing thru...much more zonal.

 

Pondo- the sunday wave trended south..lol

So shocking!

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Not really.  I know a lot can change over the next 4 days, but once we get most models into the rain camp, rarely, if ever do they go back on that.  If anything, expect even further northwest adjustments.

 

they can go back if the reason is the low getting sheared or weaker.  Sure, they won't just magically trend southeast.  Just like the reason they go further nw is usually because they become modeled stronger.   

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Not according to the storm thread. Seems like NW trend goggles are still on. Looks like the low tracks from W KY to SE/Central PA.

 

While the king has faltered occasionally this year... it's the one model you want in your camp.

 

I just looped both wxbell 00z and 12z....  they're right, it's fairly close though.   For some reason I was thinking the 00z had gone nw...I can't keep these damn runs straight

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they can go back if the reason is the low getting sheared or weaker.  Sure, they won't just magically trend southeast.  Just like the reason they go further nw is usually because they become modeled stronger.   

 

Sure, anything's possible, but I have chosen to embrace the dark side.  It's probably just not our year to see something major.  It will be one of those "historic" winters that, relatively, was hugely disappointing for us.

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