buckeye Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Haha! Well, I don't want it blowing around so much that bare grass is peaking through! oh good point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wow! Both Columbus and Newark reporting 39! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wow! Both Columbus and Newark reporting 39! not worried about it. It's dark out, the ground is frozen, and everytime I worry about a warm up hurting snowpack the snowpack is always sturdier than I expect. A few hours of 40 at dark isn't gonna be a big deal. curious if any of our cincy posters can report what 40's all day did to their snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm curious if the clearing skies will help drop the temps here a bit. OHweather has reported Athens has dropped a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm curious if the clearing skies will help drop the temps here a bit. OHweather has reported Athens has dropped a bit. it might but I think the increasing sw winds will trump radiational cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I could be wrong but I don't think we'll see much melting. The layer of snow on my driveway that the snowblower can't get hasn't melted at all. Typically it does if the sun is out even if the temp is well below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 not worried about it. It's dark out, the ground is frozen, and everytime I worry about a warm up hurting snowpack the snowpack is always sturdier than I expect. A few hours of 40 at dark isn't gonna be a big deal. curious if any of our cincy posters can report what 40's all day did to their snowpack I was home in Cincy yesterday and after seeing it get to 34, I knew it would get into the upper 30s. (Argued with some people who though it couldn't get above freezing today LOL) but even I didn't peg it at lower 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I could be wrong but I don't think we'll see much melting. The layer of snow on my driveway that the snowblower can't get hasn't melted at all. Typically it does if the sun is out even if the temp is well below freezing. agree, I'd rather have 40 at dark than 35 with sun when it comes to saving a snow pack. The powder on my screened porch floor hasn't shown any signs of melting tonight, which just shows what a cold ground can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I wouldn't be too concerned with temps near 40 because the dewpoints are still in the mid 20s. You won't see too much melting with such low dewpoints at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 looks like temps peaked....at 8pm cmh dropped to 37 and cincy is down to 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 looks like temps peaked....at 8pm cmh dropped to 37 and cincy is down to 33 Winds calmed down in Cincy looks like. So their snow is dropping them fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Athens is in a bit of a valley so we tend to decouple a bit easier here... We're actually down to 26 here now. Usually on nights like this we'll see a significant temp rise once the wind finally starts blowing on the valley floor, and I think we could see temps jump a good 10 degrees here quickly once the winds pick up. In early December one evening we dipped into the upper 30's on a calm wind while the airport 15 miles down the road hung near 60 and kept a stiff breeze...and we jumped 20 degrees in no more than 15 minutes once the wind picked back in the valley. Fun to watch. The snow pack here still is powdery despite briefly getting above freezing... I think the temp of the snow pack is well below freezing and won't melt at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Athens is in a bit of a valley so we tend to decouple a bit easier here... We're actually down to 26 here now. Usually on nights like this we'll see a significant temp rise once the wind finally starts blowing on the valley floor, and I think we could see temps jump a good 10 degrees here quickly once the winds pick up. In early December one evening we dipped into the upper 30's on a calm wind while the airport 15 miles down the road hung near 60 and kept a stiff breeze...and we jumped 20 degrees in no more than 15 minutes once the wind picked back in the valley. Fun to watch. The snow pack here still is powdery despite briefly getting above freezing... I think the temp of the snow pack is well below freezing and won't melt at all. what are your thoughts on the temps across Ohio Monday night? You buying into -20 range the euro shows across central portions? Sometimes southeast OH can do very well for the reasons you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 what are your thoughts on the temps across Ohio Monday night? You buying into -20 range the euro shows across central portions? Sometimes southeast OH can do very well for the reasons you mentioned. I think -15F outside of cities will be attained...CMH may actually get to -10F with this event although it will be close (they didn't actually hit -10 in early January, I think?)...I'm not sure about -20F. High pressure will be centered over the Ohio Valley but models show winds staying up enough to keep us from really cratering. The GFS MOS is finding dew points of -13 for CMH late Monday night, so -15 is probably the coldest it would get and that would need lighter winds than the models currently show. We'll see. We're actually down to 23 here now...kind of nippy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think -15F outside of cities will be attained...CMH may actually get to -10F with this event although it will be close (they didn't actually hit -10 in early January, I think?)...I'm not sure about -20F. High pressure will be centered over the Ohio Valley but models show winds staying up enough to keep us from really cratering. The GFS MOS is finding dew points of -13 for CMH late Monday night, so -15 is probably the coldest it would get and that would need lighter winds than the models currently show. We'll see. We're actually down to 23 here now...kind of nippy. I'm thinking a little colder than you....-13 in CMH, especially now that there is a snowcover, but you're right we'll need calm and clear. It's been colder before, Dec '89 (-19) and of course Jan 1994, (-22). Also, the gfs is the warmest model for this projected outbreak. I could see places like Bellfontaine, London, Marion, etc flirting with -20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm thinking a little colder than you....-13 in CMH, especially now that there is a snowcover, but you're right we'll need calm and clear. It's been colder before, Dec '89 (-19) and of course Jan 1994, (-22). Also, the gfs is the warmest model for this projected outbreak. I could see places like Bellfontaine, London, Marion, etc flirting with -20. I could see the typical cold spots (including Athens) hitting -15 to -20. I'll go with -12 for CMH, but if all goes well that'll be a bit too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 For those keeping track.... Most seasonal snowfall through January 26th since 1878, and the final seasonal totals: 1. 1977-78: 42.2" (54.1") 2. 1917-18: 41.1" (44.1") 3. 1880-81: 39.6" (62.4") 4. 1995-96: 37.3" (54.1") 5. 2013-2014 (through 5pm): 34.8" 6. 1883-84: 34.3" (42.7") 7. 1909-10: 33.9" (67.8") 8. 1916-17: 30.5" (39.0") 9. 1950-51: 30.0" (42.4") 10. 1892-93: 29.0" (43.6") So not bad. This season also tied as the 7th fastest winter to reach the current seasonal average snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Dropped to 30 here in Newark already!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Do we know if the snow in eastern Ind. and western Ohio is makiong to the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Models continue to back off on the 850 temps. 0z NAM now only gets us down to -23.7C while earlier GFS/Euro runs were showing -28C. This will have an impact on low temps Tuesday morning. We may once again struggle to drop below -5 unless the wind goes calm. 850 temps of a similar magnitude were reached just this past Friday morning. With no snow we hit 0 while CVG hit -6. So if the NAM's 850 temps are to be believed, we may be in that same territory Tuesday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Dropped to 20 a bit after 9PM. We're back to 25 now but it's starting to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Dropped to 20 a bit after 9PM. We're back to 25 now but it's starting to rain. temps have been schizo all evening.... jumping between 30 and 37. Probably can't totally rule out sprinkles before the snowshowers even up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Glad to see the snowpack intact after reaching the 40s! Now, can we add to it this weekend? GFS says yes, euro is unclear. Let the battle begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Glad to see the snowpack intact after reaching the 40s! Now, can we add to it this weekend? GFS says yes, euro is unclear. Let the battle begin. yea all that panic about losing some snowpack for nothing...such is the life of a weenie. Will be interesting to see how low we can go tonight. As far as the weekend, the euro and ggem op runs are amped and bring us rain and bury Chicago. The ensembles for both are flatter and further southeast. The gfs is southeast and flat (no surprise). Right now it's like every model is doing what you'd expect. Not sure what to think, but it would be a foolish move to bet against a Chicago to Detroit event this season. Personally I'm kind of torn, I'd love to pad our totals and see how high we could climb in the snowfall total rankings, but at the same time I really need a thaw for work reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=OH&stn=KCMH&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec..GFS says all snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=OH&stn=KCMH&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec..Disscuss..GFS says all snow!! It's the GFS and has about a 1% chance of verifying. I'd rather be in the foreign model camp even with the Euro not doing well this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 It's the GFS and has about a 1% chance of verifying. I'd rather be in the foreign model camp even with the Euro not doing well this year. I guess by friday we will know!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 We've reached the 17th snowiest January on record, and would need another 2.1" to hit the top 10. It's possible we can do that on Friday, but a lot of time to see if we just get screwed or buried. If the Euro was doing any good this year on anything, I'd be more confident we see just rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 We've reached the 17th snowiest January on record, and would need another 2.1" to hit the top 10. It's possible we can do that on Friday, but a lot of time to see if we just get screwed or buried. If the Euro was doing any good this year on anything, I'd be more confident we see just rain. It's not like the GFS has been doing any better. 12Z Euro is farther NW for this weekend. So it is basically GFS versus everyone. You really think that the Euro would suddenly cave to the GFS? No way, no how. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 FWIW, euro buries us next Tuesday and has us down to near zero by mid week. But first we have to go through a washout over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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