ayuud11 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I think they will probably pop lake effect snow advisories for the South Shore of Lake Ontario (at least wayne to Oswego...and likely the whole shore) because this will be the first real snow fall of the year and it certainly looks to be quite wintery/windy and unseasonably cold Sat night into Sunday. The still quite warm lakes are also a wild card even though synoptic moisture is lacking. We're one ingredient away from a real nice dump, such a shame. Where do you think the Georgian Bay band will setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 If I was still in Cornell I would be pretty excited for Saturday night! Could be a very nice 320-340 LES event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steffen Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Moved here from Buffalo a few months ago. Definitely didn't expect to get a LES watch before I would have gotten one in my previous location If I was still in Cornell I would be pretty excited for Saturday night! Could be a very nice 320-340 LES event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I've been trying to recall any year that violated the old adage, "Ice in November that will float a duck, no more to winter than snow, sleet, and muck"- you know, not a cold one- and have been following the brouhaha over on the 'Big Boys' pages trying to predict the entire winter AO from October alone ; or is it snow in Siberia (?)- eh, whatever... ....and just sat down for a bit to look for analogues for the precipitous drop going on in the AO. IF (big if ) the AO slides neutral to negative for its December average, the only strong candidate is 1978-9.... (I'll let that sink in for a bit ) ......ENSO and PDA are in line as well. Other options were Dec./Jan. 2011-12, and the Jan./Feb. 1957, 1993, and 2007 AO drops, but all had other tele's in the way- so there you go! Had to try something 'extra' this year; the woolybears were pretty non-committal, and more inconsistent than usual. Happy Thanksgiving! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 If I was still in Cornell I would be pretty excited for Saturday night! Could be a very nice 320-340 LES event. Excited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 If I was still in Cornell I would be pretty excited for Saturday night! Could be a very nice 320-340 LES event. Could you please explain what that is? I'm a senior at Cornell and have yet to experience a significant(4" +) LES event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 That's a major hit midweek for most of Upstate NY N/W of the Hudson Valley on the 0Z ECMWF. A foot plus in wide swath. The low tracks over NYC/LI. Exception..western NY too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 That's a major hit midweek for most of Upstate NY N/W of the Hudson Valley on the 0Z ECMWF. A foot plus in wide swath. The low tracks over NYC/LI. Exception..western NY too far west. 12z Canadian looks decent IMO,3-6" for wny.You get hammered though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 That's a major hit midweek for most of Upstate NY N/W of the Hudson Valley on the 0Z ECMWF. A foot plus in wide swath. The low tracks over NYC/LI. Exception..western NY too far west. Have you checked boundary layer temps? Looks like a rainstorm to me. Very marginal conditions unless you have some decent elevation. Lots of model discrepancy with this one, even the ensembles are all out of whack. Going to be a few days before we know the track of this storm. Some decent eye candy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Hey everyone! It's the time of year when I make my annual trek to Western New York, and some of you may recall that it likes to snow when I come home. Direct computer model output of snowfall amounts should always be taken with a grain of salt (doesn't take things like ground temps/snow growth/CSI into consideration)...but having said that, the projected amounts from the 12z EC are quite impressive regarding the midweek storm: From what I understand, the op EC has generally good support among the ensembles...though this is only what I have been told as I do not have access to the ensembles myself. Regardless, this could turn into a rather nice event for many reading this thread. Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, though...I'd watch for a sneaky band of LES to impact the immediate BUF metro area early Monday morning as boundary layer winds quickly back around to the SW while the inversion remains high enough and the cold air marginally deep enough to allow a short-lived band to take advantage of the increased fetch across Lake Erie. Probably wouldn't last for more than an hour or two, but snowfall rates could briefly hamper the Monday AM commute especially considering most have not really had to exercise their winter driving skills yet. I'll be at the folks' place in Orchard Park from Tuesday through Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Hey everyone! It's the time of year when I make my annual trek to Western New York, and some of you may recall that it likes to snow when I come home. Direct computer model output of snowfall amounts should always be taken with a grain of salt (doesn't take things like ground temps/snow growth/CSI into consideration)...but having said that, the projected amounts from the 12z EC are quite impressive regarding the midweek storm: euro_snowfall.PNG From what I understand, the op EC has generally good support among the ensembles...though this is only what I have been told as I do not have access to the ensembles myself. Regardless, this could turn into a rather nice event for many reading this thread. Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, though...I'd watch for a sneaky band of LES to impact the immediate BUF metro area early Monday morning as boundary layer winds quickly back around to the SW while the inversion remains high enough and the cold air marginally deep enough to allow a short-lived band to take advantage of the increased fetch across Lake Erie. Probably wouldn't last for more than an hour or two, but snowfall rates could briefly hamper the Monday AM commute especially considering most have not really had to exercise their winter driving skills yet. I'll be at the folks' place in Orchard Park from Tuesday through Friday. That midweek storm is starting to look good for our area but any further westward track and we will be dealing with some mixed precip..NWS BUF also mentions possibility of some LES Monday night into Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 the 00z ecm looks quite ominous for many in NY and Ontario wild evening here in N VT tonight with the frontal snow and flash freeze, what a mess on I-89 and local roads, in and around BTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Pretty ugly Euro/CMC runs for the Albany area. The forecast discussion from ALY completely throws out the GFS, as they probably should. OPERATIONAL GFSREMAINS OUT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BUT CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN PVSRUNS. ITS AN OUTLIER IN ITS OWN ENSEMBLE AND WILL NOT BE USED. Areas in WNY/NNY may still do pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Well Euro/Canadian/NAM seem to be in agreement that central and western NY get into action on the Tue/Wed storm. GFS is playing catch up as usual. Traveling to Syracuse to the in-laws for Thanksgiving on Wednesday. Will likely miss most of the event myself, but hoping it works out so I can take the kids out sledding Thursday and/or Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Feeling more confident today that WNY does get into the action with the midweek storm. 12z NAM sort of hinting at a two-part event with an initial burst of wet snow associated with WAA Tuesday evening...then a second and potentially more significant period of snow later Wednesday into Wednesday night as a mid-level deformation zone takes shape once the low finally closes off at 700mb (confidence is lower that this actually happens). If a mid-level low closes off and we manage to get a deformation zone over WNY during the latter stages of the storm, it could get particularly nasty with falling temps/icy roads, increasing N/NW winds with blowing and drifting concerns, and terrain enhancement south/east of BUF-ROC which could really hammer places like the Chautauqua Ridge. But a lot can still change between now and Wednesday so right now this is only a possibility and I'm still concerned that the low either: 1) does not close off at mid-levels, and/or 2) tracks farther to the east. I do agree that the GFS should be tossed at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 the 00z ecm looks quite ominous for many in NY and Ontario wild evening here in N VT tonight with the frontal snow and flash freeze, what a mess on I-89 and local roads, in and around BTV. I'm hoping Toronto can get 2-4" out of this at least. What a great start to the season! Best start since 2008, possibly 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 3.5" of LES last evening and overnight here...possibly similar later today/tonight in no. onondaga cty. Wed looks interesting...thermal profile will be the fly in the oinkment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Hey all.....down in Fl until Bird day. Missing the LES and potentially our first big EC storm in quite some time....not to mention the potential flight delays! Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 My point and click, from BGM, CWA calling for snow and ZR Tuesday night. 1-2 inches of precipitation. That's going to make for one hell of a travel day Wednesday if it plays out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 My point and click, from BGM, CWA calling for snow and ZR Tuesday night. 1-2 inches of precipitation. That's going to make for one hell of a travel day Wednesday if it plays out that way. Not sure I'm buying into the fzra threat, but I do believe there is nasty flash freeze potential with this system...somewhere in central and/or eastern New York. The last couple runs of the NAM have brought the h85 0C isotherm up to roughly an ELM-RME-SLK line by Wednesday morning...only to have that line collapse southeastward as the second "wave" ripples up and deepens along the front Wednesday afternoon/evening. I think you may have to endure a period of rain with temperatures possibly nudging into the mid 30s for a time on Wednesday, only to flip back to snow as temperatures crash into the 20s later in the day. Again, not sure if this is going to happen in the ELM-BGM corridor or perhaps closer to ALB instead (this will fluctuate from run to run over the next couple of days) but the signal is definitely there, and it could be nasty wherever it happens to occur. The fact that this will be happening on the busiest travel day of the year is certainly not helping matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 there could be a quick burst of snow in BUF tomorrow morning with the les. Too dry for something impressive. (That's probably why this NW lake-effect event was so-so.) The Tuesday LES looks more impressive for BUF..potential for advisory accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 there could be a quick burst of snow in BUF tomorrow morning with the les. Too dry for something impressive. (That's probably why this NW lake-effect event was so-so.) The Tuesday LES looks more impressive for BUF..potential for advisory accumulations. Yes, I was thinking the same thing. My flight is supposed to land at BUF around 8:15 AM. Hopefully there aren't any delays - BUF is usually pretty good about getting flights in/out unless it's true whiteout conditions. Fingers crossed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Yes, I was thinking the same thing. My flight is supposed to land at BUF around 8:15 AM. Hopefully there aren't any delays - BUF is usually pretty good about getting flights in/out unless it's true whiteout conditions. Fingers crossed... there could be a quick burst of snow in BUF tomorrow morning with the les. Too dry for something impressive. (That's probably why this NW lake-effect event was so-so.) The Tuesday LES looks more impressive for BUF..potential for advisory accumulations. Flow looks a bit southerly,maybe a northtown special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM COULD IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHTTHROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... WHILE THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON THE STORM THAT WILL BE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IMPACTING AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. THE LATEST MODELS AGREE THAT THE DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH BETWEEN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...REACHING THE VICINITY OF LONG ISLAND BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS PROJECTED PATH OF THE LOW WILL KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK AND MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE STORM WHICH WILL FAVOR SNOW AS THE PREDOMINANT PCPN TYPE. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. BECAUSE OF THE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT THIS WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL COULD HAVE ON TRAVEL RIGHT BEFORE THANKSGIVING...A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. NWS BUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Well Rochester west to Buffalo looks like the place to be for this. Thought GFS may have been bringing a bit too much warmth into this yesterday…but NAM and Euro now supporting the idea of rain all the way into Syracuse. Some bookend snows still likely for places like Syracuse and Binghamton…but Rochester may end up the big winner here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Not a typical track, but when they do come up through Eastern NY State, Rochester tends to be the place to be. Decent spot for any banding in this setup, as well as influence from Lake Ontario (I'm thinking specifically of a big March storm for them some years ago where this happened). Out here in Eastern Upstate NY, this will not be decimating any mid-winter snowpack, so I'll sit back and enjoy the rain, sandwiched by maybe a brief slop on the front end, then flurries/flash freeze as it moves by. Sometimes I get lucky and get dryslotted too... Well Rochester west to Buffalo looks like the place to be for this. Thought GFS may have been bringing a bit too much warmth into this yesterday…but NAM and Euro now supporting the idea of rain all the way into Syracuse. Some bookend snows still likely for places like Syracuse and Binghamton…but Rochester may end up the big winner here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I'm in Otsego County and trying to stay optimistic but I agree somewhere around Rochester will be the big winner for snow. NAM and GFS offer some hope of decent snow coming through here late Wednesday afternoon into evening as the cold air moves eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Yes, I was thinking the same thing. My flight is supposed to land at BUF around 8:15 AM. Hopefully there aren't any delays - BUF is usually pretty good about getting flights in/out unless it's true whiteout conditions. Fingers crossed... A few years back I flew out of BUF in heavy snow with about 9" on the ground in December...right on time lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 A few years back I flew out of BUF in heavy snow with about 9" on the ground in December...right on time lol. Yay OSU is back!! What's your thinking on the LES band before the storm hits? Looks like a decent 2-4 inches across metro buffalo and points just north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Yes, I was thinking the same thing. My flight is supposed to land at BUF around 8:15 AM. Hopefully there aren't any delays - BUF is usually pretty good about getting flights in/out unless it's true whiteout conditions. Fingers crossed... Seriously every-time you come up here snow is in the forecast. Quite hilarious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.