Typhoon Tip Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Haven't looked at a chart or an index for like 4 days, but had a chance to do so this morning... I'd say there is "greater chance than the usual lower confidence" that the late middle to extended range goes above normal, possible ... well above normal. There are unilaterally index modalities leading, their timing and spatial conceptualization converging on a heat signal for the upper MW --> OV/NE regions. Days 5/6 - D10 This could be different than the WAR -attributed warm departures, though some presentation of far west Atlantic heights nearing and exceeding 590dm would be likely. During the WAR, most of the heat built regionally, accumulating gradually, during the 3 disparate oscillations into positive departures that took place during that overall 3-weeks. This was because a significant shear axis was left in the wake of the June/early July trough when it filled over the OV, and that deep layer feature retrograded W, and acted as a barrier, preventing continental processed/type heat from involving into the circulation. That contributed to why there really was only a day or two of "big heat" during that 3 weeks of above normal conditions (repeating 92/73 does, however, wear on one's nerves and takes a toll). But temperature and DPs pervasively getting HI s to 100 or higher was not that common during. The reason I point that out is because although some shear axis/quasi barrier looks to remain during the time frames in question, it is lower in latitude and less inhibitory to the "over the top" construct of the circulation. In other words, it would allow for more in the way of big plateau 850mb temperatures to conveyor through the MW/GL and NE regions. The less dependable models are the most emphatic about a +20 to +24C, 850mb air mass amid a well mixed conveyor pointed at NE as the extended gets under range. The Euro does however have the 500mb accessible to a bigger heat option than what it currently shows beneath in altitude, so that has me suspicious that it could offer up more. I have referred to this in the past as a "Sonoran heat release". This gist is when preceding capping of high heat gets motivated into the flow ... usually by a substantial rise in the EPO and a trough digging into the NE Pacific; very similar if not dead panned indicated by the pantheon of operational versions. More or less related, the NAO is timing it's own rising, pulling heights over E N/A up. The NAO teleconnector in the GFS ensembles are remarkably tightly clustered around a 2 or more SD modality into the positive domain space. That really can't happen without significantly lifting the escape latitude of the westerlies over eastern N/A. So, as said, seeing every operational run there is hammering that idea beyond D5, that's really a pretty bright beacon for a another warm episode emerging. How long it last and to what exact magnitude is obviously impossible to know for now. But, we obviously know that if a 20+C, 850mb air mass gets ejected out of the SW/W and times well with a +NAO pulse, things will heat up in a real hurry. I'd also like to remind folks that there was heat wave, with one day of big heat in latter August of 2002(?), and there have been rare days nearing 100 in early September. It could come down to a week of above normal with a couple of very hot days, or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 No joke...there's this new AMS paper that just got released that correlates July dews with January dews. It states that if New England sees abnormal humidity in July, something in the greater circulation patterns causes enhanced periods of 50F dews south of the Pike in January. The author is Professor Tolland McBaldie. Ha hahahaha ... dude, I think we've all just been had by Kevin -- that's SPOT on ! Eh, that may be statistically shown... and if so, there DEFINITELY needs to be a "physics" proof to show why, because without it, I can imagine all kinds of scenarios and counter-points to show that could be coincidental. ...just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Hot right in time for camp. Hope it features a bdcf over eastern portions somehow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 No joke...there's this new AMS paper that just got released that correlates July dews with January dews. It states that if New England sees abnormal humidity in July, something in the greater circulation patterns causes enhanced periods of 50F dews south of the Pike in January. The author is Professor Tolland McBaldie. There seems to be this misconception that i am somehow bald. Yes I buzz my hair and have a slight recession on the temples, but if you are looking for a bald poster ,look no furthur than Garth who is as bald an egg. You're 4'11" or so judging by some of the pictures you've posted of you skiing...should we start calling you a midget or enter you in dwarf throwing contests, just because you are short? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 There seems to be this misconception that i am somehow bald. Yes I buzz my hair and have a slight recession on the temples, but if you are looking for a bald poster ,look no furthur than Garth who is as bald an egg. You're 4'11" or so judging by some of the pictures you've posted of you skiing...should we start calling you a midget or enter you in dwarf throwing contests, just because you are short? the bald thing just seems to be what everyone calls you, started by those that know you. Haha and what pictures of me skiing look like I'm 4 feet tall? That's just the really deep snow. I'm 6'3" and could definitely throw some dwarfs for ya if you need. I'm only 4'11" when I'm wearing a snowflake sweater and holding Will's hand prancing through the snow in JayHawk's masterpiece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 the bald thing just seems to be what everyone calls you, started by those that know you. Haha and what pictures of me skiing look like I'm 4 feet tall? That's just the really deep snow. I'm 6'3" and could definitely throw some dwarfs for ya if you need. I'm only 4'11" when I'm wearing a snowflake sweater and holding Will's hand prancing through the snow in JayHawk's masterpiece. Deep, deep hair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 You look homeless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 12, 2013 Author Share Posted August 12, 2013 23 days since my last 90+ reading. Basically normal temps over the last week. Over the last 2 weeks, 30 days, and 60 days though I'v been the torch capital of the Northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 still solidly above normal overall when you look at that last map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Deep, deep hair Nice...yeah bald people generally aren't 100% bare like that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 still solidly above normal overall when you look at that last map Especially the further south you go...up here the last 60 days have averaged out to 0 to +1, which isn't bad considering how warm July was. But our daytime highs were often much lower than SNE with all the daily rains and t-storms up in CNE/NNE during that time. We'd have highs in the 70s while it was 90-95 in SNE lower els. Man look how cold the last couple weeks have been in the Ohio Valley though and Lakes region. Pockets of -6 to -8 for two week departures is decently impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Deep, deep hair Yeah, but who's that bald guy photo-bombing those two kids ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 23 days since my last 90+ reading. Basically normal temps over the last week. Over the last 2 weeks, 30 days, and 60 days though I'v been the torch capital of the Northeast 7dTDeptNRCC.png 14dTDeptNRCC.png 30dTDeptNRCC.png 60dTDeptNRCC.png This is an interesting analysis, actually... Kind of puts things into perspective. It does make sense however that the July warmth has proxy in the means (so far), as it's length of time was a bit longer than the recent cool down. It'll be interesting to revisit this analysis in 3 weeks, when the upcoming warming pattern is in the books -- in other words, the JJA mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 I'd also like to remind folks that there was heat wave, with one day of big heat in latter August of 2002(?), and there have been rare days nearing 100 in early September. It could come down to a week of above normal with a couple of very hot days, or less. Auguat 11-19, 2002 - 9-day heat wave for BDL, 6 days even up here in Farmington. Then there was a rare (only two for Farmington since 1900) Sept heat wave 9/8-10, that seemed more an NNE thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Yeah, but who's that bald guy photo-bombing those two kids ?See the towering CU in the background. Big storm was moving in on us down in FL last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 See the towering CU in the background. Big storm was moving in on us down in FL last week Either of your kids into weather? I was drawing weather maps with crayons by age 5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Anyone else seeing a sharp increase in dews this afternoon? We (MVL I should say) went from a Td of 48F at 12pm to 60F at 7pm. Temperature was in the low 70s for both those observations so its not like we are wetbulbing or anything. It feels noticeably more humid than it did this morning thanks to that 12F rise. Montpelier has also shot up to 60F at 1,200ft from being in the low 50s just hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Either of your kids into weather? I was drawing weather maps with crayons by age 5...With a met for a father, a resounding yes . They both love snow and thunder storms . We're working on the dews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larvay Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 With a met for a father, a resounding yes . They both love snow and thunder storms . We're working on the dews It's cool that you're raising them as though they were your own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 It's cool that you're raising them as though they were your own.Hey how is MRG doing? Does he still peruse the board and miss us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Hey how is MRG doing? Does he still peruse the board and miss us? Did Logan11 and his wranglers go over there too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Did Logan11 and his wranglers go over there too? I think he posts there, but he's around. he posted on my post today on FB. He only posts here in winter typically You should see some of the things Ginx posts over there about some folks here. makes you shake your head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Man is it getting dark early FTL. A month ago we were laying out tanning at this hour, now we're in our pj's getting ready for bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Man is it getting dark early FTL. A month ago we were laying out tanning at this hour, now we're in our pj's getting ready for bed we're losing 4 minutes a day. Sunset here is 7:54 tonight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Man is it getting dark early FTL. A month ago we were laying out tanning at this hour, now we're in our pj's getting ready for bed And on Wednesday night, you'll be in your foot Pjs, the ones with a zipper from your pinky toe to your weenie, to your neck. Maybe even some skin caught in the zipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 And on Wednesday night, you'll be in your foot Pjs, the ones with a zipper from your pinky toe to your weenie, to your neck. Maybe even some skin caught in the zipper? you can tell you're a dad now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 And on Wednesday night, you'll be in your foot Pjs, the ones with a zipper from your pinky toe to your weenie, to your neck. Maybe even some skin caught in the zipper?For lows in the low - mid 50's? B ball Shorts and t shirt sleeping wx. A week from now ac's will be humming again as folks gear up for another long stretch of uncomfortable sleeping wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 you can tell you're a dad now.... Sounds like he's had some weenie issues in the past .. Like the scene from Something About Mary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 For lows in the low - mid 50's? B ball Shorts and t shirt sleeping wx. A week from now ac's will be humming again as folks gear up for another long stretch of uncomfortable sleeping wx You may tickle U40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Sounds like he's had some weenie issues in the past .. Like the scene from Something About Mary Franks N beans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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