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Weekend Storm Disco/Obs (Dec 18th & 19th) ---> Part 2


WeatherNC

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Right now the nam is on its own. Neither the euro or gfs are putting out the qpf that the nam is. Not saying the nam is wrong but until I see other models showing something similar I don't trust it.

I am not trying to argue with anyone here but please try to not follow QPF maps all the time. They rely heavily on microphysical parameterizations and if the scheme in the model does not handle certain ice crystal prcoesses well it could be off. The GFS is also a coarser model. Soundings off the GFS at RDU support some snow so lets see what the 00z GFS does tonight.

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Brick.. dont look now but WRAL has no snow for you in their forecast.

WRAL is always conservative unless they are 100% sure. They like to start low then increase the amount as the storm happens. They would rather do that than call for a big storm and it bust so people won't say they were cryng wolf. They only called for a trace with the record snow in Jan 2000 to begin with, too. I am not saying this will be a big snow. I just like having the chance of snow. You never really know how it will turn out here once it starts.

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I am not trying to argue with anyone here but please try to not follow QPF maps all the time. They rely heavily on microphysical parameterizations and if the scheme in the model does not handle certain ice crystal prcoesses well it could be off. The GFS is also a coarser model. Soundings off the GFS at RDU support some snow so lets see what the 00z GFS does tonight.

:clap:

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uhmmmm from Conservative FFC??

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

845 PM EST FRI DEC 17 2010

GAZ001>009-011>016-181200-

DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-

CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-

845 PM EST FRI DEC 17 2010

...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA AND THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS GEORGIA

SATURDAY...WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHEAST GULF AND

THEN MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY

SATURDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM

ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.

FURTHER NORTH...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A SUMMERVILLE...TO

JASPER...TO CLEVELAND LINE...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH

AND POSSIBLY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE

INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA

MOUNTAIN COUNTIES OF TOWNS...UNION...FANNIN...GILMER...

LUMPKIN...DAWSON...AND WHITE. GROUND AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE

EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S

ACROSS THESE AREAS SATURDAY. THUS...ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL

BE LIMITED MAINLY TO GRASSY SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS. A LIGHT

DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE

HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA...MAINLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE

2500 FEET.

AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS

ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. NONETHELESS...RESIDENTS OF FAR

NORTH GEORGIA AND THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL

THROUGH THESE AREAS...SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF LATER FORECASTS AND

POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THAT MAY BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.

:popcorn:

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AFD just issued from Birmingham NWS:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

820 PM CST FRI DEC 17 2010

.UPDATE...EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NEW MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT ARRIVED JUST YET...BUT

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PCPCN DEVELOPING

ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BEFORE SUNRISE. SHOWERS ARE FORMING

ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ALONG LEAD IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE

COASTAL REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT PCPN SPREADING INTO

ARKANSAS AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF. MODELS TEND

TO UNDER-FORECAST AREAL COVERAGE AND EASTWARD ADVECTION OF

PCPN IN THESE FAST MOVING ZONAL FLOW PATTERNS. UPDATED

FORECAST TO MENTION SLEET ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20

BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM. ONCE NEW MODELS ARRIVE...FORECAST

MAY NEED TO UPDATED AGAIN TO REFLECT HIGHER CHANCES OF PCPN

OVERNIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE FLIRTING NEAR THE

32 DEGREE MARK ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM SULLIGENT...TO

WARRIOR...TO HEFLIN LINE...AND THESE AREAS WOULD BE MOST

LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE ICY CONDITIONS ON MAINLY ELEVATED SURFACES.

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Right now the nam is on its own. Neither the euro or gfs are putting out the qpf that the nam is. Not saying the nam is wrong but until I see other models showing something similar I don't trust it.

read james spann's blog :devilsmiley: [weenie] looks like more moisture showing [/weenie]

he must be a true weenie since he is also watching the models on a friday night :scooter: (yes, i know thats also part of his job!)

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uhmmmm from Conservative FFC??

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

845 PM EST FRI DEC 17 2010

GAZ001>009-011>016-181200-

DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-

CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-

845 PM EST FRI DEC 17 2010

...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA AND THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS GEORGIA

SATURDAY...WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHEAST GULF AND

THEN MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY

SATURDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM

ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH GEORGIA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.

FURTHER NORTH...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A SUMMERVILLE...TO

JASPER...TO CLEVELAND LINE...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH

AND POSSIBLY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE

INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA

MOUNTAIN COUNTIES OF TOWNS...UNION...FANNIN...GILMER...

LUMPKIN...DAWSON...AND WHITE. GROUND AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE

EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S

ACROSS THESE AREAS SATURDAY. THUS...ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL

BE LIMITED MAINLY TO GRASSY SURFACES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS. A LIGHT

DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE

HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA...MAINLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE

2500 FEET.

AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS

ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. NONETHELESS...RESIDENTS OF FAR

NORTH GEORGIA AND THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL

THROUGH THESE AREAS...SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF LATER FORECASTS AND

POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THAT MAY BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.

:popcorn:

:rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

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I am not trying to argue with anyone here but please try to not follow QPF maps all the time. They rely heavily on microphysical parameterizations and if the scheme in the model does not handle certain ice crystal prcoesses well it could be off. The GFS is also a coarser model. Soundings off the GFS at RDU support some snow so lets see what the 00z GFS does tonight.

C'mon, you know everyone on the SE board right now is looking to see if any qpf is making it to there area. That's all any of us care about. The only thing that I'm saying is I've been burnt w/ the nam qpf totals before. Like I said before I'm not saying the nam is wrong, just that I don't trust the nam. Not only w/ qpf totals.

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spann just updated again, looks like n alabama is in for a second surprise in the same week!

* * *

Sure looks like the chance of snow and sleet is increasing north of I-20 for after midnight and tomorrow morning. Still, it looks rather light, but it might be enough to create some icy bridges.

We will go ahead and amend the forecast to hit this a little harder… if you are traveling tomorrow morning over North Alabama, you will need to get up a little early and check on weather conditions…

http://www.alabamawx.com/

C'mon, you know everyone on the SE board right now is looking to see if any qpf is making it to there area any of us may see a little surprise frozen precip. That's all any of us care about. The only thing that I'm saying is I've we've all been burnt very very badly w/ the nam qpf totals before. Like I said before I'm not saying the nam is wrong, just that I don't trust the nam. Not only w/ qpf totals.

fixed it lol

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Will the Triangle and surrounding areas see snow Saturday night? It's iffy, according to WRAL meteorologist Elizabeth Gardner, who said the latest weather models show the storm missing the area. "It doesn’t mean we won’t see any snow. It just means our confidence is low," she said.

On Thursday, WeatherScope predicted that all the precipitation would stay off the North Carolina coast. Then, Friday morning, it showed a little burst of snow over the Triangle. By Friday afternoon, however, WeatherScope said the storm should stay east of the Triangle.

"This is one of those really tricky situations. It’s a coastal storm, which can always be difficult to predict," Gardner said. "(Coastal storms) typically develop rapidly, so this storm hasn’t even fully developed yet. That’s one problem. Then, there’s always the question of how far inland does it come?"

WRAL has other computer models, which are still showing that the Triangle will receive snow. Gardner said it's tough to predict until the storm develops further.

"It’ll be at the last minute that this (storm) develops, and then we’ll have to see where it is in relationship to our coast," she said.

In other words, we don't know so we'll just say maybe.

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WRAL is always conservative unless they are 100% sure. They like to start low then increase the amount as the storm happens. They would rather do that than call for a big storm and it bust so people won't say they were cryng wolf. They only called for a trace with the record snow in Jan 2000 to begin with, too. I am not saying this will be a big snow. I just like having the chance of snow. You never really know how it will turn out here once it starts.

They are gunshy after the Dec 2000 fiasco. Posted similar totals to the Jan 2000 storm on their maps and the next day the sun was shining without a flake having fallen.

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FFC is covering their butt after the last debacle. GA DOT blamed them for the mess the other day

they probably are, esp since this is another close call and hard to pin down. with alabama starting to update things, ffc is probably following suit. i am not sure it [missing the wed. ice] was entirely their fault, it was such a close call. i have ragged on them before as well, but the nws offices (and other media mets) in alabama, ga, tn, nc were all a little off on the ice. the thing is we really didnt get that much, maybe 1/10th an inch. but as cold as the ground and roads were it all froze and created a large multistate ice rink :scooter:

:lol: ....oh yea, that's better!

:thumbsup:

We are sitting at 43 here between ATL and AHN. Don't see how we have any chance.... BUT Rome is sitting at 35 and clear skies... so if they can chase down some precip... they might have a chance at some flakes...

still at 39 here (dropped like .5 degree in three hours :rolleyes:) i am afraid ne ga may be in the lee side of the mtns dead zone where the cold gets clogged on the west side and the moisture is gone by the time it gets to our areas

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