Tropopause_Fold Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Was that convergence from a seabreeze? It is funny it popped over the water, then pulls away, while the rest of us are high and dry. no i don't think so...winds are rippin from the WSW pretty good. just enough juice i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Interesting that mesoanalysis showed a CAPE max over NE Mass. and even a 1.0 sigTor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 I'm also curious...I think they loosely follow the SPC SREF calibrated severe probs. That only brings probs to 20-25% for SNE. Their outlooks often are kind of similar up what those model generated probs are. I think they do that as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 MCD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1447NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...NJ...SERN NY...CT...RI...MA...SRN VT...SRNNH...SRN MECONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 201736Z - 201830ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOONACROSS MUCH OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THENORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND...POSSIBLY AS EARLY ASTHE 18-20Z TIME FRAME. A FEW OF THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOMESEVERE...PARTICULARLY WITH THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDGUSTS...AND A WATCH LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR ORSO.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HEATING IS MAXIMIZING WITHIN THE LEE SURFACETROUGH ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR...FROM WASHINGTON D.C. AND BALTIMORENORTHEASTWARD THROUGH PHILADELPHIA...NEW YORK AND BOSTON...WHERETEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE 90S. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO LARGEMIXED LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENTNEAR 2 INCHES...WHICH INCLUDES SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPEARS WEAK...BUTISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THEQUESTION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS SEASONABLY STRONG CYCLONICFLOW GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION. A MORE PROMINENT FOCUS FORSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AN INITIAL CONVECTIVELY GENERATED BOUNDARYTO THE NORTH AND WEST...NOW EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERNMAINE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND VERMONT...INTO AREASNEAR/EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS...AS IT CONTINUES ASLOW SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION.GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...SHEAR BENEATH 30-40+ KT WESTSOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERESTORM DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THE RISKFOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR THE MOST PROMINENT THREAT IN MOSTAREAS...KERR/EDWARDS.. 07/20/2013ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 That's a massive MCD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Interesting that mesoanalysis showed a CAPE max over NE Mass. and even a 1.0 sigTor. These composite indices may be the death of meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 cell is flagging 1.10'' hail on OKX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 storm actually has some rotation on OKX radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 WHY CAN'T ENX BE UP AHHHHHH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 well good luck guys...hope it delivers...off to twitter / radar / sat watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Is there a tor threat today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 Is there a tor threat today very, very low although in any discrete I wouldn't rule out the possibility as helicity is fairly elevated...LCL's are quite high though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 That storm entering NW Ct is going to be a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 WArning out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Popping right overhead... wow for someone downstream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Something is popping almost right overhead. Massive tower going up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 Watch is out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Nice cell forming over me.. Thunder now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Watch up!!! WHEEEE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 I bet someone gets an EF0-1 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Watches up here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Thunder is banging now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Someone to my E/NE will get crushed sion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Sun back out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Convection really exploding spc ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 That cell south of Hartford is really exploding.....I can really make out the vertical ascent in the top of the structure..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 That cell south of Hartford is really exploding.....I can really make out the vertical ascent in the top of the structure..... Well might be meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 anyone in any of those C MA cells? how were they? what about NE CT cell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 That storm to my north is a loud one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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