moneypitmike Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 My question is this damage swath long enough to meet derecho criteria? Anyway here are my pics taken just off Exit 18 on I-89 in near Milton, VT Nice. I was in Burlington Monday/Tuesday. Wish I were there for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 It's been ridiculously unstormy around here..Lol can't tell if this is sarcasm or serious. We have had a couple good storms but certainly less frequent than other areas in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Yeah I'm pretty excited about today. I don't think we will see a widespread outbreak but I could see something similar to yesterday but perhaps to a lesser extent. Hopefully radar is lit up like a Christmas tree in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 trend on most mesos is for the worst of this to be SW of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 trend on most mesos is for the worst of this to be SW of SNE. hmmm interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 I wonder if HFD could pull off a 93-94...+24C to +25C at 925 and +19C to +20C at 850mb...plenty of sun here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 HRR brings some serious storms to CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 hmmm interesting we'll see. i tend to think the negatives out weight the positives today...but...still early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 we'll see. i tend to think the negatives out weight the positives today...but...still early. what are you seeing for negatives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 It's going to end with a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 HRR brings some serious storms to CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 New outlook puts all of CT in the Slight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 I wonder if HFD could pull off a 93-94...+24C to +25C at 925 and +19C to +20C at 850mb...plenty of sun hereMid level temps are sufficient for a 95-96 where sun is abundant, they ways go w lower high on day of fropa to "play it safe" due to uncertainty wrt cloud cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Lol can't tell if this is sarcasm or serious. We have had a couple good storms but certainly less frequent than other areas in my opinion. I can't remember one good storm this year, though maybe because I was working during it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 what are you seeing for negatives? i still think lack of orthogonal flow in the BL will be an impediment unless LL wind fields are being poorly modeled. and still feel like best ingredients on a synoptic level are not collocated. best instability SW...best wind fields and mid-level forcing N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 i still think lack of orthogonal flow in the BL will be an impediment unless LL wind fields are being poorly modeled. and still feel like best ingredients on a synoptic level are not collocated. best instability SW...best wind fields and mid-level forcing N Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 i still think lack of orthogonal flow in the BL will be an impediment unless LL wind fields are being poorly modeled. and still feel like best ingredients on a synoptic level are not collocated. best instability SW...best wind fields and mid-level forcing N that doesn't mean there won't be any storms around at all...i just think we may get split. and of course with that now said, SNE will get nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 that doesn't mean there won't be any storms around at all...i just think we may get split. and of course with that now said, SNE will get nailed. Those negative will preclude a widespread outbreak from occurring, however, with so much Cape and a fatter cape profile, along with adequate shear...it may not take much for the atmosphere to really pop...especially since we are removing all the CIN we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 I think the Catskills/Lower Hudson Valley and W CT might make out okay, but we'll see. Fair overlap of parameters there and last few runs of HRRR have been popping some good storms there around 2-4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Those negative will preclude a widespread outbreak from occurring, however, with so much Cape and a fatter cape profile, along with adequate shear...it may not take much for the atmosphere to really pop...especially since we are removing all the CIN we had. i do think given the amount CAPE available and certainly some decent wind fields, anything that goes up can deliver. i'm of the mindset it's more miss than hit in terms of coverage though. i guess that's what i'm getting at. a lot of the meso models want to sneak some stuff into CT too so you might be OK out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 i do think given the amount CAPE available and certainly some decent wind fields, anything that goes up can deliver. i'm of the mindset it's more miss than hit in terms of coverage though. i guess that's what i'm getting at. a lot of the meso models want to sneak some stuff into CT too so you might be OK out there. It does seem there is a quite a bit of uncertainty regarding aerial coverage of convection which I think could be holding SPC back from issuing higher probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 It does seem there is a quite a bit of uncertainty regarding aerial coverage of convection which I think could be holding SPC back from issuing higher probabilities.I'm also curious...I think they loosely follow the SPC SREF calibrated severe probs. That only brings probs to 20-25% for SNE. Their outlooks often are kind of similar up what those model generated probs are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Guys if u can is this convection looking later or earlier for eastern areas. Or better yet when is est start time for boston, best guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Things trying to get going in the mid-Hudson Valley...have to use BGM radar. Is annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Line looks later for bos 7pm or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 funny that little cell that popped NE of BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 surface winds are south at HFD...and seeming more S than W across a lot of the state...so that might help a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 This air is high octane juice! 94/73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 funny that little cell that popped NE of BOS. Was that convergence from a seabreeze? It is funny it popped over the water, then pulls away, while the rest of us are high and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 surface winds are south at HFD...and seeming more S than W across a lot of the state...so that might help a bit. should help with convergence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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