weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 I think today could be like yesterday up north though perhaps with not as many reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Reserve psychology FTW Kevin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 I <3 the 12z OKX sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 I <3 the 12z OKX sounding THank you!!! I looked at that and was quite impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Instead of making love to soundings..some met thoughts would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Decent sun here and good heating. Hopefully we rock later... My locale has gotten the shaft in regards to storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 I just posted more realistic and better processed photos from yesterday in the NNE thread. Don't want to re-post here and keep clogging things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO SLOW DOWN THE PRECIP ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS UNTIL AROUND 18Z AND BEYOND. DEWPTS ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN FORECAST...MAINLY IN THE MID 70S NEAR AND S OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE THEY APPEAR TO BE POOLING...SO MAY BE A FOCUS OF ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP PROBABLY AFTER 18Z. USED A BLEND OF OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE HRRR MODEL...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE THIS SAME FOCUS. OTHER CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON ORDER OF 6C/KM...FOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MUCH HIGHER OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS AS SEEN ON SPC MESO ANALYSIS. SPC DID UPDATE THEIR CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK TO SHIFT IT A BIT FURTHER S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO SLOW DOWN THE PRECIP ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS UNTIL AROUND 18Z AND BEYOND. DEWPTS ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN FORECAST...MAINLY IN THE MID 70S NEAR AND S OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE THEY APPEAR TO BE POOLING...SO MAY BE A FOCUS OF ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP PROBABLY AFTER 18Z. USED A BLEND OF OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE HRRR MODEL...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE THIS SAME FOCUS. OTHER CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON ORDER OF 6C/KM...FOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MUCH HIGHER OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS AS SEEN ON SPC MESO ANALYSIS. SPC DID UPDATE THEIR CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK TO SHIFT IT A BIT FURTHER S. I also don't quite get what they mean by "other convective parameters are marginal". Which parameters? mid-level lapse rates aren't all that bad and Ekster has said in the past to overcome marginal or weak mid-level lapse rates you want dews in the low to mid 70's and that's what we have. I'm confused as to which other convective parameters are marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Do we have any idea what the timing of these are? It appears whatever develops would be after 4:00 for most of us right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 Do we have any idea what the timing of these are? It appears whatever develops would be after 4:00 for most of us right? Yeah I would think we are looking at after 3-4 PM which is even better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 WOW...the RAP develops as much as 4000-5000 SBcape later on across CT with MLcape values in the 3000-3500 J/KG range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 WOW...the RAP develops as much as 4000-5000 SBcape later on across CT with MLcape values in the 3000-3500 J/KG range How does it look up in my area? Backyard question.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 How does it look up in my area? Backyard question.... I think your area looks pretty solid...should have high cape and very adequate shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 There really isn't an ideal "checklist"...you just want to see a combination of several ingredients come together. However, for Cape values (SBcape/MLcape/MUcape) you 'd like to see these values at least 1000 J/KG, LI values you'd like to see at least -2C, 0-6km shear values at least 30 knots, mid-level lapse rates at least 6 C/KM, weak height falls at 500mb, you'd like to have at least 20 knots of wind at 925/850mb, 25-30 knots at 700mb, at least 40 knots at 500mb, then you want to be in the right entrance region (or exit region) of an ULJ which is at least 80-90 knots. You want surface dewpoints to be at least into the lower 60's and have dewpoints at 925/850 be in excess of 12-16C. What I mentioned here though are just like minimum requirements you would like to see when dealing with the possibility of one or a few strong to severe storms. Obviously if you are looking for widespread severe or an outbreak you would want to see much higher numbers. You also have to look at the synoptic setup as well and see if you have any sources of lift (cold front or pre-frontal trough is ideal), etc. Id even say 6.5c i think lapse rates are muy importante... you can have all the instability you want but without steep rates... pfftph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 Id even say 6.5c i think lapse rates are muy importante... you can have all the instability you want but without steep rates... pfftph Well it's quite difficult to obtain extreme amounts of instability without steep lapse rates or an EML present, but one way to do so is to have very high surface dewpoints and low-level moisture in place. The 12z OKX sounding had lapse rates up near 7 C/KM. Mesoanalysis shows them closer to 6 C/KM but I would like to see what they actually are...mesoanalysis only does .5 increments. I wish OKX would do an 18z launch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Instead of making love to soundings..some met thoughts would be niceI <3 me hot sweaty dripping dew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Well it's quite difficult to obtain extreme amounts of instability without steep lapse rates or an EML present, but one way to do so is to have very high surface dewpoints and low-level moisture in place. The 12z OKX sounding had lapse rates up near 7 C/KM. Mesoanalysis shows them closer to 6 C/KM but I would like to see what they actually are...mesoanalysis only does .5 increments. I wish OKX would do an 18z launch.I don't think I'll ever advertise widespread wording w/o an EML Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 I don't think I'll ever advertise widespread wording w/o an EML We don't need an EML to get widespread severe weather...if we want to get widespread significant severe weather (widespread wind gusts greater than 65 knots, several hail reports exceeding 2'', or several F2 or stronger tornadoes) though than an EML becomes a bit more important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 I think we see 30% wind probs with the new day 1 and 15% hail given helicity values seem elevated and capes/vertical shear may support some supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 I think your area looks pretty solid...should have high cape and very adequate shear.Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 We've had nothing to write home about here this year as far as I can tell (perhaps something while I might have been away). So, I'm skeptical about seeing anything today. Not much to track on ENX radar these days..... 82.0/.71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 We don't need an EML to get widespread severe weather...if we want to get widespread significant severe weather (widespread wind gusts greater than 65 knots, several hail reports exceeding 2'', or several F2 or stronger tornadoes) though than an EML becomes a bit more important. How often do we actually see an EML in SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 Hartford has made it to 90F, however, winds are west so dews dropped 2F to 70F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 We've had nothing to write home about here this year as far as I can tell (perhaps something while I might have been away). So, I'm skeptical about seeing anything today. Not much to track on ENX radar these days..... 82.0/.71 We really haven't had any solid setups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 How often do we actually see an EML in SNE? Well to get a true EML in here (like 6/1/11) is very difficult, however, we do usually get a few pseudo-EML's or weakening EML's in per year. It's another thing though to get them overhead during a convective setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 My question is this damage swath long enough to meet derecho criteria? Anyway here are my pics taken just off Exit 18 on I-89 in near Milton, VT Great photos. Might be a "macroburst" ... They are like microbursts, but at the mesoscale. Derecho's are usually associated with advancing cool pools from aggregated outflow clusters, and their signatures tend to be much larger. But then again, there are all kinds of labels the science puts on events in the atmosphere when in reality, the boundaries that differentiate them are blurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Well to get a true EML in here (like 6/1/11) is very difficult, however, we do usually get a few pseudo-EML's or weakening EML's in per year. It's another thing though to get them overhead during a convective setup. Cool, thanks wiz. You seem to be feeling somewhat good about today's odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Decent sun here and good heating. Hopefully we rock later... My locale has gotten the shaft in regards to storms... It's been ridiculously unstormy around here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 Cool, thanks wiz. You seem to be feeling somewhat good about today's odds. Yeah I'm pretty excited about today. I don't think we will see a widespread outbreak but I could see something similar to yesterday but perhaps to a lesser extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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