hm8 Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Hrrr keeps it clear till the main FROPA but struggles to build instability over SEMI for some reason. Sent from my HTCONE using Tapatalk 4 Beta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Noticed this in the 01z outlook: CONSIDERABLE VEERING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEAR TO BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR LACK OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. We're going to have this same issue tomorrow at least in part of the warm sector. yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 looks pretty clear to me that we'll have pre-frontal action associated with activity around frankthetank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 But this is without a doubt one good sign. Completely clear skies for miles. I don't think we've seen this in a while ahead of a late afternoon/early evening cold frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 everything looks good for Detroit. I think WI and the general southwestern portion of the outlook will be largely action free Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Hrrr keeps it clear till the main FROPA but struggles to build instability over SEMI for some reason. Sent from my HTCONE 4 Beta It mixes the dew point down to under 60 in pockets, I give that a 0.00000000001% of happening, and if it were to happen we would be 100-105 today, which is equally as unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Hrrr keeps it clear till the main FROPA but struggles to build instability over SEMI for some reason. Sent from my HTCONE 4 Beta It mixes the dew point down to under 60 in pockets, I give that a 0.00000000001% of happening, and if it were to happen we would be 100-105 today, which is equally as unlikely. Yup I see that now. IIRC it's had similar problems in the past so I'm not concerned. Sent from my HTCONE using Tapatalk 4 Beta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 spc has begun slicing probabilities to the southwest, early stage punt signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 So far all I have heard this morning, regarding storms: "Isolated" "Widely scattered" "Best chance is the afternoon, but those storms will be isolated" "MicroCast" according Mr. Schwartz at ABC7 gives us about .03"-.10" this afternoon. Looks like the storm action will be east of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 spc has begun slicing probabilities to the southwest, early stage punt signal Yep tor probs down to 2% now for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 OFB north of QC's triggering some light action in far eastern Iowa some DP pooling in SE Minnesota and westcentral Wisco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 NAM shows the line getting back to the MS River. Line initiates as the front approaches MSN. 12z run 12z NAM hires rocks S MI and ON good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 87/74 at the 11:30 obs . At least there's a breeze today, blowing according to the station 20 with 30 MPH gusts. SBCAPE currently is at 3500-4000 j/kg and with time left in the day we could approach 5000+. With a solid LLJ and that kind of instability, we could really have some serious damaging winds today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Well the SPC isn't wasting any time today... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1433.htmlJust becuase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 total lack of CU field across IL, pretty good chance the minor pre frontal forcing won't be enough or will wait until south and east of the area to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 30 percent probs dropped Sent from my HTCONE using Tapatalk 4 Beta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Wow talk about uncertainty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 spc has begun slicing probabilities to the southwest, early stage punt signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Quoting yourself makes you look stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Quoting yourself makes you look stupid. not when you nailed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 I wouldn't call that a slice... more of a 'poof' it's gone. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 LOT currently in anti-punt mode... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL1141 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2013.DISCUSSION...1138 AM CDTTHE MORNING CONVECTION AND THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER HAVEDISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ITAPPEARS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...LIKELY ELEVATED IS PUSHING ACROSSNORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THIS TIME. WITH SKIES REMAINING CLEAR ACROSS THEREGION...TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE LOW 90S EARLYTHIS MORNING. WITH EVEN WARM 925 MB TEMPERATURES TODAY NEAR 27DEGREES C...PER 12 UTC DVN RAOB...I SEE NO REASON WHY TEMPERATURESWILL NOT WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 90S BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...IWARMED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLYWINDS SHOULD HELP MIX OUT DEW POINTS SOME...RESULTING IN SOMESLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOW 70S.THEREFORE...HEAT INDEX VALUES STILL APPEAR TO PEAK NEAR 105 THISAFTERNOON.IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL FIRE UP ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AFTER 19UTC. MODIFYING DVN 12 UTC RAOB FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS INDICATE VERYLITTLE CAP REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SB CAPE AROUND 2800 J/KG.THEREFORE...IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT THE REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERYSHOWS AN AREA OF CLOUD COVER WITH INCREASING AGITATION ACROSSPORTIONS OF IOWA. THIS AREA ALSO COINCIDES WITH SOME ENHANCEDBOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARDS MYNORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER 19 OR 20 UTC AS THE SURFACE FRONT CONTINUESTO DROP SOUTHWARD. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION COULDALSO DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OFCHICAGO AND INTO NORTHWESTERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON...INASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE ALONG APREFRONTAL TROUGH.IT APPEARS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEDAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...20TO 25 KT...MAINLY DUE TO THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINING TOTHE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WET OR EVEN HYBRIDMICROBURSTS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH LAYER THETA-EDIFFERENCES IN EXCESS OF 20 DEGREES C.THE OTHER THREAT WILL BE THAT OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH THISACTIVITY. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO BY AROUND 2 INCHES...THEREFORE THESESTORMS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF HIGH THETA-E AIR TO WORK WITH. RAINFALLRATES IN SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD EASILY EXCEED AN INCH OR TWO ANHOUR...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED HYDROISSUES...ESPECIALLY IF THIS OCCURS OVER THE URBAN AREAS. I DECIDEDTO ADD HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE GRIDS EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT I KEPTIT SOUTH OF CHICAGO...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS ANDNORTHWESTERN INDIANA WHERE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD LINGERTHIS EVENING. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE TO THE EAST AROUND 25KT...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING CELLS COULD RESULT INLOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.KJB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Quoting yourself makes you look stupid. What do you expect out of a Chicagoan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 not when you nailed it You didn't nail anything, parrot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Too early to punt. Got a lot of heating time left. Hopefully the front slows a tad though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 Too early to punt. Got a lot of heating time left. Hopefully the front slows a tad though. The front is just passing LSE. There's no need for it to slow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 DCAPE approaching 1600 south of Lacrosse per spc meso analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 The front is just passing LSE. There's no need for it to slow down. I was thinking about dewpoint pooling might help things get started overhead instead of further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 GRR TAFS forecast says after 10PM storms associated only with the coldfront, but should be isolated in nature. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 And of course, the dewpoints are mixing down into the 60s. I'm not giving up yet, but if this somehow manages to bust, then I'm done with this Summer. Forget this crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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