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Spring in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut Banter Thread

IsentropicLift

By IsentropicLift,
in New York City Metro

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

any chance those storms in PA make it here?

 

 

They're driven by elevated instability so it's very possible. If we do get the storms, they should be quite loud tonight.

 

Parameters aren't conducive for severe, but T-storms should occur for most in about 2-4 hours probably.

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Dsnowx53

Dsnowx53

Posted
Posted

Just figured I'd share this. In case you guys didn't know, I've actually been out storm chasing in the Plains for several days now. Today, I caught the huge cone and then wedge tornado near Bennington, Kansas (close to Salina). I edited this photo to add a bit more contrast, but here it is:

 

post-73-0-81075300-1369800951_thumb.jpg

 

 

 

 

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IntenseBlizzard2014

IntenseBlizzard2014

Posted
Posted

Just figured I'd share this. In case you guys didn't know, I've actually been out storm chasing in the Plains for several days now. Today, I caught the huge cone and then wedge tornado near Bennington, Kansas (close to Salina). I edited this photo to add a bit more contrast, but here it is:

 

attachicon.gifIMG_3896_3.jpg

 

Is that the stationary tornado from earlier? ._.

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Dsnowx53

Dsnowx53

Posted
Posted

Just figured I'd share this. In case you guys didn't know, I've actually been out storm chasing in the Plains for several days now. Today, I caught the huge cone and then wedge tornado near Bennington, Kansas (close to Salina). I edited this photo to add a bit more contrast, but here it is:

IMG_3896_3.jpg

Is that the stationary tornado from earlier? ._.

Yes it was!

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Dsnowx53

Dsnowx53

Posted
Posted

Just figured I'd share this. In case you guys didn't know, I've actually been out storm chasing in the Plains for several days now. Today, I caught the huge cone and then wedge tornado near Bennington, Kansas (close to Salina). I edited this photo to add a bit more contrast, but here it is:IMG_3896_3.jpgnice grab!!!

Thanks!!

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tim

tim

Posted
Posted

.. channel 7s' weather team(lee goldberg,bill evans,et al) harping on the

"heat wave" for thurs,fri,sat..their future casts have a 30 degree difference

between south shore of LI and NYC..that seems a little extreme to me..i'm

hoping i can get close to 80* the next few days here in eastport.

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CIK62

CIK62

Posted
Posted

Tropical moisture to pay EC a visit between 6/7-12?

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&cycle=06ℑ=gfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif  

 

Most of the recent runs show something coming from eastern GOM and going at least part way up the EC.  The above Ptot-384 from 06z shows it nicely.

Remember will only give you the latest output now.  Won't show it as I described.  Goes part way up coast.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

0z SPC WRF showing line of t-storms moving across tri-state area today

 

2z9iih4.jpg

 

fvbwhi.jpg

 

That's a fairy strong LLJ on top of the instability for later on today into this evening. There could even be a few storms

that take on rotation where the activity intersects the more southerly surface winds especially from just north of NYC

out east across CT. 

 

 

 

 

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

Clouds looks to hang on for the next few hours. Looks like we'll clear some around noon then more during the afternono ahead of any tstorms..  Once we clear its off to the races, outside chance of 90 in some of the warmer spots but most will max out in the mid/upper 80s.

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weathermedic

weathermedic

Posted
Posted

From OKX AFD:

 

THE BIGGER CONCERN OF THE DAY IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTN...WITH PSBL SEVERE OVER INLAND HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
CT. THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION SETTING UP IN THE WAKE AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY VALUES BY THIS AFTN ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG AS DEW PTS PUSH INTO THE MID 60S...AND
TEMPS INTO THE 80S. AS THE LLJ REFORMS AGAIN BY THIS AFTN OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KTS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH DECENT VEERING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WHILE
THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z...THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THINKING THE BEST CHC WILL BE OVER THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY INTO INLAND AREAS OF CT WHERE THE THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED
TO SET UP BY THIS AFTN AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR VALUES ARE THEIR HIGHEST. MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. HELICITY VALUES
OVER CENTRAL CT SUGGEST PSBL TORNADOES...BUT AT THIS TIME THINKING
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRING. PW VALUES AROUND 1.6 COULD ALSO
LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. TIMING LOOKS TO
BE BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LVL ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...WITH A
DIMINISHING THREAT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH THE
GENERAL FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST...COULD SEE SOME OF THE SEVERE
STORMS TRANSITION ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA...BUT MORE LIKELY
ONLY AS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

 

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Snow_Miser

Snow_Miser

Posted
Posted

Mount Holly:

 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
806 AM EDT WED MAY 29 2013

NJZ007>010-012-013-015-017>020-022-027-PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106-
301215-
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
806 AM EDT WED MAY 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG, GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE FIRST HEAT WAVE OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 90 DEGREES
AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING INTO THE 90 TO 95
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
 

The bolded implies that advisories may be going out, at least for interior New Jersey.

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uofmiami

uofmiami

Posted
Posted

Isnt the criteria a HI of like 105?

Yeah, we are not near the criteria for a Heat Advisory!

 

From OKX site:

 

 

Heat Advisory:  Issued when maximum daytime heat index values are forecast to reach 100 to 104°F for at least 2 consecutive hours.

NOTE: For New York City, a Heat Advisory is issued when the heat index is forecast to reach 95 to 99F for at least 2 consecutive days or 100 to 104F for any length of time.

 

Excessive Heat:  Issued when heat index values are forecast to reach or exceed 105°F for at least 2 consecutive hours.

Watch is issued 24 to 48 hours of the event. 

Warning is issued within 24 hours of the event.

 

 

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Yeah, we are not near the criteria for a Heat Advisory!

From OKX site:

Heat Advisory: Issued when maximum daytime heat index values are forecast to reach 100 to 104°F for at least 2 consecutive hours.

NOTE: For New York City, a Heat Advisory is issued when the heat index is forecast to reach 95 to 99F for at least 2 consecutive days or 100 to 104F for any length of time.

Excessive Heat: Issued when heat index values are forecast to reach or exceed 105°F for at least 2 consecutive hours.

Watch is issued 24 to 48 hours of the event.

Warning is issued within 24 hours of the event.

The heat advisory was mentioned by Mt Holly not Upton
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