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Friday April19th Severe Wx Disco


Damage In Tolland

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Arctic fronts aren't really a great source for severe wx really.  Since they are more shallow in nature and their slopes typically are not that steep they don't usually provide a great deal of uplift.  Of course though if you have ample instability and great jet dynamics to compensate this could be off-set.  

 

Anyways severe wx from Arctic fronts is much easier to come by in the Plains and the south only b/c they can generate the ample instability.  We typically see little in the way of severe wx with them except maybe some low topped pea hailers.  

 

Thought about this in the shower and realized this is wrong...I was thinking of Polar fronts not Arctic fronts.  

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AWT..temps nearing 80 and convection

 

FRI/SAT...WARM FRONT LIKELY LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH STRONG
LOW LEVEL WAA ACROSS THIS REGION. FRI PROBABLY WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LIKELY FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COMBINES WITH PWATS +2 TO +3
STD AND STRONG WIND FIELDS. COULD BE A STRONG AND ACTIVE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

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AWT..temps nearing 80 and convection

 

FRI/SAT...WARM FRONT LIKELY LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH STRONG

LOW LEVEL WAA ACROSS THIS REGION. FRI PROBABLY WARMEST DAY OF THE

WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LIKELY FRI

NIGHT INTO SAT AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COMBINES WITH PWATS +2 TO +3

STD AND STRONG WIND FIELDS. COULD BE A STRONG AND ACTIVE FRONTAL

PASSAGE.

 

Looks like rain. 

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HPC on board as well. Should have a significant line of storms with high dews and 70's to near 80..clouds or not

SATURDAY...A DEEP CYCLONE WILL BE EXITING THE GREAT LAKES AND THECOLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THEWESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH A RENEWED THREAT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVYRAINFALL AND ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FROM FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN NEWENGLAND. 
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HPC on board as well. Should have a significant line of storms with high dews and 70's to near 80..clouds or not

SATURDAY...A DEEP CYCLONE WILL BE EXITING THE GREAT LAKES AND THECOLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THEWESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH A RENEWED THREAT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVYRAINFALL AND ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FROM FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN NEWENGLAND. 

 

lol you're ridiculous 

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Maybe some elevated forced convection associated with the main line, however, as the front approaches the sfc low begins to weaken and string out somewhat and in response the jet dynamics begin to wane so lift will not be all that strong.  The ULJ remains quite strong, however, the best forcing from entrance region looks to remain to our north.  

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We'll see how SPC verifies this year. Last year I felt like there were a lot of moderate risk outlooks that didn't verify so well, but who knows...

 

That's why their forecasts are done probabilistically so you can't really say a "moderate risk was a bust". You'd really have to look at all of their forecasts and grade them. 

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