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The_Global_Warmer

2014 ENSO Mega Thread

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2011 and 2012 both spiked to .8 and we barely even had +neutral. This is only slightly higher than that thus far. Yes it probably still will rise some more but we will need some WWB to sustain this.

 

I'd still go 30% +neutral, 30% weak, 20% mod, 20% strong. 

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2011 and 2012 both spiked to .8 and we barely even had +neutral. This is only slightly higher than that thus far. Yes it probably still will rise some more but we will need some WWB to sustain this.

 

I'd still go 30% +neutral, 30% weak, 20% mod, 20% strong. 

 

Except neither of those years had such a large and warm sub-surface pool of water.

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The mid-March IRI outlook was released yesterday. They are calling for a 'fairly likely' development of a weak El-Nino by the end of Summer.

 

The El-Nino probabilities have been increasing.

 

figure3.gif

 

figure4.gif

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Except neither of those years had such a large and warm sub-surface pool of water.

 

Actually they both had pretty big warm pools. That was my point. This year is somewhat stronger, but those years didn't even really get close to Nino.

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With the overall -PDO phase, it's possible we may see an early peak. JAMSTEC picked up on it peaking towards the end of summer before cooling. 

 

ssta.glob.SON2014.1mar2014.gif

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CPC updated.  Not only has the large warm pool moves further East/surface bound it has grown in intensity and connected with the warmer pocket that is now reaching the surface over the far EPAC. 

 

It has also expanded in depth of the warmest anomalies.  That is quite a large pool of well above normal water temps. It is reflected in the OHC which is still sky rocketing.

 

wkteq_xz.gif

 

 

looks like it is about 1.275C+.  Do we have any historical data on what the warmest this has risen to?

 

vU3vOUW.gif?1?8471

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With the overall -PDO phase, it's possible we may see an early peak. JAMSTEC picked up on it peaking towards the end of summer before cooling. 

 

ssta.glob.SON2014.1mar2014.gifSee: 1997-1998 for an example of an early start.

Unlikely though. Ninos typically peak during N. Hem winter.

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Just remarkable to see the entire warm pool shift eastward- note the rising thermocline in the western Pacific, highlighting cooling there. The eastward advancement of the 28 deg isotherm is the most striking- nearly 20 degrees of longitude in just a couple months

 

wkxzteq_all.gif

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nzucker - this is patently OT, but just wanted to point out - I damn near caught you on snow totals this winter, 44 inches to your 57 lmao. You almost got beaten by the tropical fall line in the mid atlantic, but late March in the mid atlantic with a lack of classic blocking and a more east track on the March 25th storm with an excruciatingly s-l-o-w phase saved your 8ss

 

OK, back to enso disco - I think we may see a low grade nino by late summer.

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Based on a clip from this morning's discussion, it looks like HGX is pretty sold on the developing El Niño, although that might not be too surprising at this point.

yvy2y2u4.jpg

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Here's 2n/155w and looking ahead into the summer in the other years. There's a climatological min in the spring -- a trend bucked solely by 1997 ... and 2014? (and probably several other years before 1993 ...)

 

post-128-0-03526100-1395771069_thumb.png

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Blog entry from Paul Roundy - "Possible Major El Nino developing, and our wild winter"

 

http://blog.timesunion.com/weather/possible-major-el-nino-developing-and-our-wild-winter/2953/

 

"So, although I do not claim to be certain that a major El Niño event will develop this year, I think that the probability of a major event is substantially higher than that suggested by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (their most recent forecast suggests a 50% chance of El Niño developing at all, while I suggest that the chances are probably closer to around 80% for a major El Niño). My motivation to assert higher confidence is that the wind patterns presently observed that favor strong El Niño growth are favored to continue to occur: these wind signals are not completely independent from the progress toward El Niño, so the present progress towards El Niño favors their continued occurrence.

 

Trouble is that in our lifetimes, we are not likely to ever experience a large enough number of major Kelvin wave events similar to the present event and that of March 1997 to be able to objectively assess through the historical record which of us is right, whether or not this potential event becomes major."

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1957 was very active severe weather wise, essentially across the entire country (if we are talking about this year) which was then followed by a strong Nino into 1958. The actual Nino conditions in 3.4 began in the MAM period.

MAM 1957 tri monthly of 0.7 in reach? It will be if this keepa up.

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Here is an animation going back every three days from the DMI SSTA charts.

 

I put this together because it is the only "daily" site I could find.  They use 10-11 Satellites now for daily observations.  all OBS are only from nighttime scans.

 

The baseline is 1985-2001.

 

 

Anyways it really shows the major ENSO changes underway.  Nino may be upon us before the end of April a least in terms of weekly ONI.

 

 

 

bDaCda4.gif
 

Information about the figures

The web page shows the sea surface temperature (SST) and anomalies derived from infrared measurements from the polar orbiting satellites. One interpolated field is constructed daily. Only nighttime SST observations are used for the interpolation because these are more representative of the temperature in the upper meters of the water column. One image per day is shown for the last 30 days.

The SST anomalies have been calculated with respect to a mean, which has been derived from observations from 1985 to 2001. They are SST climatology monthly values from the Pathfinder project and temporal interpolation is used between the two nearest months to obtain this days SST climatology. For more information on the monthly climatology, see: www.nodc.noaa.gov/sog/pathfinder4km/

Interpolation method

Gaps in the observations due to clouds are filled using a 3-dimensional Optimal Interplation technique (see Høyer and She, 2007). The interpolation scheme uses statistics, which are derived locally and provides the "best possible" estimate of the SST observations, assuming steady state statistics. The mean error of the gridded SSTs is about 0.5-0.7oC.
Satellite observations

The observations of the sea surface temperature are based upon observations from up to 10 different satellites, measuring in Infrared and Microwave wavelengths. The observations are obtained from the Ocean and Sea Ice SAF project (www.osi-saf.org) and from Group on High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (www.ghrsst.org).
The satellites products are listed below: 

Sensor Satellite Resolution (km) AATSR ENVISAT 1 AVHRR (OSI-SAF) NOAA 2 AVHRR (NAVO LAC) NOAA 1 AVHRR (NAVO GAC) NOAA 4 AVHRR METOP_A 1 Modis Aqua 1 Modis Terra 1 AMSR-E Aqua 25 TMI TRMM 25 SEVIRI MSG 5 GOES   5

 

 

 

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 This past week's warming of 0.5 C in 3.4 is the strongest weekly warming since the 0.5 of 5/6/98.

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*Cut*

 

The warmth in the ENSO regions continues to be impressive with the 30 day avg SOI at -12.00 and the MJO staying within El Nino Phases. However, I'm reluctant to push towards any strong El Nino event like some people are hyping. Atmospherically speaking, we haven't seen any huge responses towards a strong El Nino event. And climatology doesn't favour a strong El Nino. On average we see one every 8-10 years and the last time we saw one was back in 2009-10. The Sun is also key. We saw a huge spike in Sunspots/Solar Flux last month though its calmed down a bit of late. 

This is from the southern Ontario thread, I'm confused about the bolded part relating to climatology not favoring a strong El Nino because it looks great in my view. As I said before, I don't think the PDO will be a factor or as large this time in the overall peak strength. 2009-2010 wasn't a strong El Nino, just moderate so if you put climatology in the mix we are "due" for a super Nino but I don't like to go by that. We won't see any huge responses til the warmth reaches the surface which might be late next month or May if this wild trend continues.

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This is from the southern Ontario thread, I'm confused about the bolded part relating to climatology not favoring a strong El Nino because it looks great in my view. As I said before, I don't think the PDO will be a factor or as large this time in the overall peak strength. 2009-2010 wasn't a strong El Nino, just moderate so if you put climatology in the mix we are "due" for a super Nino but I don't like to go by that. We won't see any huge responses til the warmth reaches the surface which might be late next month or May if this wild trend continues.

 

09-10 was a strong Nino, it maxed out at +1.6, which is over the +1.5 threshold needed for a strong Nino.

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