CooL Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Lakes cutter at 174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 There's a chance that this storm is too early; meaning, that this one won't actually be the end of the season snowstorm threat. That might be a few days later, as the PAC pattern will be better by then. An elongated PV is good, but when it's too far north, it does leave room for a storm to cut. Of course, things can still change with this look; bring the block a bit to the south and it's game on again. But we are not at the point anymore where the storm has to go to our south, based on the current modeling data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 There's a chance that this storm is too early; meaning, that this one won't actually be the end of the season snowstorm threat. That might be a few days later, as the PAC pattern will be better by then. An elongated PV is good, but when it's too far north, it does leave room for a storm to cut. Of course, things can still change with this look; bring the block a bit to the south and it's game on again. But we are not at the point anymore where the storm has to go to our south, based on the current modeling data. yeah, we need a more west based nao for this not to cut, hold that pv in for a while longer..Good thing we are at that range where we can still get massive changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 So essentially, the GFS and Euro traded places with each other compared to 24 hours ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Back to a Euro look on the GFS at 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Comparing the 2 models it seems that the euro has been flip flopping alot lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Back to a Euro look on the GFS at 180 Agree. Brings the over running close to us next week and cuts the storm after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 I've seen Lonnie give exact predictions for storms a week away a few times this winter. One of the times, he gave a 1 to 3 inch snow prediction for a storm 7 days away. Weather on channel 2 is a complete and utter joke. He knows little about the weather, but his weather producer is trying to make him seem like a superhero by feeding him these ridiculous specific predictions for storms a week away. Tune in to channel 2 weather, if you want to have a laugh. If you want to watch a good met, watch Lee Goldberg on channel 7. He is a joke, however his early prediction last week was correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 I like the look of the over running event on the euro last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 I like the look of the over running event on the euro last night I know it's early but surface temps were above freezing for the city. At least it's currently progged to come in mostly at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 I know it's early but surface temps were above freezing for the city. At least it's currently progged to come in mostly at night. 34-35 which is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Now it just looks like the next week plus will feature a lot of chilly rain with temps mostly in the low to mid 40s, which sucks. I would gladly take 60 and sunny, but all this blocking pattern does is make early spring miserable. The blocking has backed off somewhat so I'm not surprised the storm next week cuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Now it just looks like the next week plus will feature a lot of chilly rain with temps mostly in the low to mid 40s, which sucks. I would gladly take 60 and sunny, but all this blocking pattern does is make early spring miserable. The blocking has backed off somewhat so I'm not surprised the storm next week cuts. it's way too early to be throwing in the towel. A solid advisory level event is not out of the question for the over running event. The models will likely go back and forth with the strength and positioning of the block over SE Canada which will have a large influince on the eventual track of the main surface low. Also, a secondary which cuts off just to our east is not out of the question. I'm not sure what the 00z Euro ensembles had but that's what the 12z Euro ensembles had. The individual 6z GEFS ensemble members had plenty of spread with the over running event with several members tracking right over us and some to our north and to our south. Some with all out blizzards for interior New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 it's way too early to be throwing in the towel. A solid advisory level event is not out of the question for the over running event. The models will likely go back and forth with the strength and positioning of the block over SE Canada which will have a large influince on the eventual track of the main surface low. Also, a secondary which cuts off just to our east is not out of the question. I'm not sure what the 00z Euro ensembles had but that's what the 12z Euro ensembles had. The individual 6z GEFS ensemble members had plenty of spread with the over running event with several members tracking right over us and some to our north and to our south. Some with all out blizzards for interior New England. It's very early to make definitive conclusions but we would certainly need a strong, west-based block and favorable MJO pulse to have a shot here this late in the season. If it lessens at all or the SE ridge is too assertive, as the Euro has suggested in the last couple of runs, odds would favor interior and northern regions much more. We need a good collusion of events to really be in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 gfs is further south for weekend clipper. Snow moving in at hr 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 mod snow at hr 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 hr 102 light to mod snow contiues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Its going to be way below avg this weekend for march. Cold st pattys day. 2-4 inches of snow on gfs snow maps off sv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 pv and blocking are in a great spot this run through hr 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Also looks like the pattern after is much more surpressed/cold than prior runs, but to early to tell if it makes any difference with the storm for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 The height fields at 120 are much suppressive on this run. Might bold well for the big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Also looks like the pattern after is much more surpressed/cold than prior runs, but to early to tell if it makes any difference with the storm for next week Also looks like the pattern after is much more surpressed/cold than prior runs, but to early to tell if it makes any difference with the storm for next week Yeah its def a great look going foward. Pv in a great spot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 pv and blocking are in a great spot this run through hr 120 Will be interesting to see if the Euro shows this change also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Will be interesting to see if the Euro shows this change also. Yes hopefully this is the trend today, overrunning is surpress this run. A very cold look so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 great look at hr 144....doubt this cuts west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 My untrained eye likes the GFS look for the big storm much better through 120, just a hunch, we see a much better result from the big one coming up in a few panels. If it tries to cut it with the colder, more supressed look, that doesn't make sense. not sure if we see 2-4" for the city, 2" is a possibility and on this GFS probably the high end, nowhere is above .25" liquid and ratios should be 10:1. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Will be interesting to see if the Euro shows this change also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 This is going to end up be a way more favorable outcome for snow lovers. Block is in alot better postion at hr 162..low pressure over cincy 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Still going to cut west of us at hr 162. Over Pitt at hr 171. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Still going to cut west of us at hr 162. Over Pitt at hr 171. Much further east on this run. There looks to be a transfer over NYC at 180. Rain for our area and snow for parts of SNE northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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