CooL Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 SE ridge is way too overpowering and could very well be the downfall to all of these threats. The block is just slower to evolve, that's what allows the SE ridge to pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 18Z GFS is interesting and probably wrong http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06_county180.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 18Z GFS is interesting and probably wrong http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06_county180.gif that's spring!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 But why is it prob wrong? And why interesting? I think this threat is coming a bit too late in the season for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 But why is it prob wrong? And why interesting? I think this threat is coming a bit too late in the season for us. you think that storm will cut into the western great lakes next tuesday ? Euro ensembles are more realistic considering the negative nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 A rainstorm is much more likely than a snowstorm in late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 It seems as if the on-air TV mets have been discounting the previous Euro runs the past three days. They forecast low- to mid-40s for the next 7 days with rainstorms galore. I wonder why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Meteorology isn't really a great science for "probabilities"... That's not to say that climatology can't be used to help understand and predict the weather, but "100 year storms" happen a lot more often than once every 100 years after all... In these transitional months everything is on the fence and sure as time goes by it will on the average will lean towards the warmer side of things, we can get a good setup to provide us with a good snowstorm, even into April... Granted the eye of the needle gets smaller and smaller with time, it's certainly not beyond the realm of possibility to see a major snowstorm here And as it was too early to get excited at last nights 00z run verbatim, it's too early to get dejected by the GFS's depiction, especially given its tendency to break down blocking patterns too quickly in the mid-long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Title thread needs to be changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 A rainstorm is much more likely than a snowstorm in late March. Have you informed the media of this breaking news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Anyone know how the final outcome played out for NYC when the Euro first showed a MECS 8-9 days out for 2-3 runs then backed off at day 7? Backing off at day 7 is not a good sign because for Boxing Day, the Euro held onto its HECS solution for NYC 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 I think it's a matter of when we get a powerhouse east coast storm, not if. The pattern being presented on some models right now looks more like mid february with the cold air as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Anyone know how the final outcome played out for NYC when the Euro first showed a MECS 8-9 days out for 2-3 runs then backed off at day 7? Backing off at day 7 is not a good sign because for Boxing Day, the Euro held onto its HECS solution for NYC 7 days out. Yea it held it for several run before losing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 12, 2013 Author Share Posted March 12, 2013 I think it's a matter of when we get a powerhouse east coast storm, not if. The pattern being presented on some models right now looks more like mid february with the cold air as well. The cold air on the Euro is amazing...still holding on to -12C 850s on March 21st... Thursday/Friday also looks very chilly as a core of -14C 850mb temperatures passes over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 A rainstorm is much more likely than a snowstorm in late March. i learn something new every day on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Anyone know how the final outcome played out for NYC when the Euro first showed a MECS 8-9 days out for 2-3 runs then backed off at day 7? Backing off at day 7 is not a good sign because for Boxing Day, the Euro held onto its HECS solution for NYC 7 days out. The Euro did, in fact, back off on that storm. At 60 hours prior to the event,the GFS was the first model to regain the idea that a blizzard would unfold. The ECMWF's track was well to the east of what verified. From HPC's write-up following the blizzard: ...the “model of choice”, the European Center or ECMWF model, continued a trend from earlier runs to track the system further off the East Coast. These ECMWF runs on 23 and 24 December minimized the threat of heavy snowfall, even while the Global Forecast System (GFS) was trending with a deeper low tracking northeastward closer to the coast, accompanied by heavy snow. By 1200 UTC 24 December, the GFS tracked a deep low immediately along the coast, a track which was corroborated by subsequent NAM runs, putting New York City squarely in blizzard conditions on 26 December. The entire suite of European, Canadian and U.S. models didn’t converge on the correct forecast scenario until 36 to 48 hours prior to the onset of the heaviest snow, generally late on the 24th through early on the 25th. Furthermore, the significant model differences on 24 December 2010 contributed to forecaster uncertainty. Many of the GFS/GEFS and SREFS members trended with a storm system closer to the coast and therefore a heavier snow solution for New York City. Meanwhile, the ECMWF forecasts kept the track farther offshore, suggesting the storm would not be too severe, even though earlier ECMWF forecasts indicated more of a threat several days before the storm. It wasn’t until the 1200 UTC 25 December model cycles that all the models converged on a solution that put New York City squarely in the area of heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions on 26 December. A table showing the forecasts put out 60 hours prior to the event: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summaries/event_reviews/2010/December25_27_2010_Blizzard.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 The Euro did, in fact, back off on that storm. At 60 hours prior to the event,the GFS was the first model to regain the idea that a blizzard would unfold. The ECMWF's track was well to the east of what verified. As I recall the EC backed off a 84 and the GFS jumped aboard at 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 I can't quite put my finger on it, but there is something about a 962 low just inside the benchmark in late December: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 DonS: Thanks for refreshing my memory; I stand corrected. However, I should have rephrased my question to read: Do you happen to have some storm analog dates of instances of projected Day 8-9 Euro runs in which for 2 or more runs, NYC was depicted to receive a MECS/HECS, only to back off inside Day 7, like what it did today at 12z for next week's threat? I am trying to find out how many times NYC received a snowstorm as the final outcome out of all those such instances, regardless of whether or not future Euro runs bought back that MECS or not in the short-term. I just want to gauge the possibility of NYC receiving a MECS/SECS next week based off those stats. Having said that, I think Boxing Day was the exception rather than the rule in which the Euro had a fluke run or two in the medium-range. But beginning from Day 8 all way to Day 4, it never waivered from its HECS solution for NYC. And it did bring it back after the GFS picked up on it under 48 hours. Your input would be appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 The long range storm looks way different on the gfs, much flatter, should be further east easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Hr 192 looking alot better than previous runs on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 As hard it is to believe for some, but Lonnie Quinn on CBS already gave a forecast tonight for next Tuesday-Wednesday: 1-2" of heavy rain, temps in the mid-40s with gusty winds up to 60 MPH with not one flake of snow for NYC. Who wants to bet that he scores a coup here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 As hard it is to believe for some, but Lonnie Quinn on CBS already gave a forecast tonight for next Tuesday-Wednesday: 1-2" of heavy rain, temps in the mid-40s with gusty winds up to 60 MPH with not one flake of snow for NYC. Who wants to bet that he scores a coup here? Lol only makes me want the storm more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 The cold air on the Euro is amazing...still holding on to -12C 850s on March 21st... Thursday/Friday also looks very chilly as a core of -14C 850mb temperatures passes over us. Long range gfs shows this well. Plenty of storms/blocking/and cold it looks like an earily february pattern or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 I've seen Lonnie give exact predictions for storms a week away a few times this winter. One of the times, he gave a 1 to 3 inch snow prediction for a storm 7 days away. Weather on channel 2 is a complete and utter joke. He knows little about the weather, but his weather producer is trying to make him seem like a superhero by feeding him these ridiculous specific predictions for storms a week away. Tune in to channel 2 weather, if you want to have a laugh. If you want to watch a good met, watch Lee Goldberg on channel 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Long range gfs shows this well. Plenty of storms/blocking/and cold it looks like an earily february pattern or something Its very impressive, best I have seen all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Does the 0z Euro have anything for Day 7/8? The silence about this run is giving me fear.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Does the 0z Euro have anything for Day 7/8? The silence about this run is giving me fear.... Not out there yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Nice little overrunning storm at 144-150 cant say i love the look for the next wave though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Okay, but how is the H5 setup leading up to the threat compared to 12z if you have the data available? I think that this run will probably yield a bearish result since neither earthlight, Dsnowx53,1234abc or Allsnow are giving the play-by-play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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