user13 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Well, glad to see that you have this one figured out with such certainty 5 days out. Lol, exactly we only need 100 - 150 mile shift north at this point to get rocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Well, glad to see that you have this one figured out with such certainty 5 days out. Lol, exactly we only need 100 - 150 mile shift north at this point to get rocked. Lol....if it showed us in the bullseye or getting hit hard would you say "we'll let's not be too sure....this might shift 100-150 miles south and completely miss us" ? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Lol, exactly we only need 100 - 150 mile shift north at this point to get rocked. Doesn't matter-if the confluence is too strong the precip will get shunted east and we get little/nothing. 2/6/10, many of us only needed another 20 miles or so. I'm more interested in the trends of the block/confluence than the low in terms of getting precip up here (whether it's rain or snow is another question). If it's weak enough I think we get into the action. Hopefully also it's fast moving enough not to generate a large surge and wave pounding for the beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Lol....if it showed us in the bullseye or getting hit hard would you say "we'll let's not be too sure....this might shift 100-150 miles south and completely miss us" ? No Lol I would but the trend all winter has been NW so Im happy right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Lol I would but the trend all winter has been NW so Im happy right now Yes, but not once this winter have we had a strong west based block like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yes, but not once this winter have we had a strong west based block like this. Yea, Its a problem but I think the models are overdoing the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Beyond this storm, the 0z GFS erases any sign of a warm-up and shows increasingly below average temperatures with several storm threats. It could be an interesting March.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GGEM is also south, but still has decent QPF, about 25 cm ~ 1" from TTN and south. Most of that looks more wet than white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GGEM tends to over do the warming, it's track and QPF does put the I-95 in a major event, NYC and BOS are still in question. Again I am waiting until the trough is fully on shore by tomorrow's 00Z run, before I make a true forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Lol....if it showed us in the bullseye or getting hit hard would you say "we'll let's not be too sure....this might shift 100-150 miles south and completely miss us" ? No It's the GFS so actually yes I'd say exactly that especially considering how the model runs have unfolded for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GGEM five day precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 On the GEFS, the .50 line is touching the south shore of NYChttp://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep72132.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Euro has the northern edge of the precip getting up to SNJ. South of the 12z run. Good hit for the Mid Atlantic. D.C is on the edge. This run is further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Euro is south.. consistency? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Euro is south.. consistency? Next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Next... Not looking good but still a little time left for this one. This run is even bad for D.C. Most of the precip stays south of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Not looking good but still a little time left for this one. This run is even bad for D.C. Most of the precip stays south of them right - keep hope alive...Is it Winter 2013-14 yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Im just going to wait for tomorrows. 0z to say Next. If is still shows a south solution...good for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 One thing that is notable is that the SLP never cranks. In fact, once the models started to downplay any NE movement in the system up the coast, we saw much less impressive intensification. What I think that is throwing everyone off is that the gradient with a 1033 mb high to the north creating significant packing of the isobars. One would think that we were dealing with a monster 970 mb low, but the lowest that the Euro has this system going is 996 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Im just going to wait for tomorrows. 0z to say Next. If is still shows a south solution...good for DC Warm surface with the heaviest precip south of them on the euro, which is pretty much a slap in the face for them if that happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chademer07 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The amount of wish casting in this thread is ridiculus. Obviously we pretty much all want to get hit but without much northern stream interaction there really isn't much to pull this thing farther north. Out best bet is for the block to show up weaker (and further north) and the confluence to be further north and east to allow for This bowling ball to come further north. There's still a possibility of it happening but we need much more help than many think. I hate to squash optimism but don't rely on the NAMs positioning of the shortwave, it's been nothing short of awful this year, especially in it's later panels. Possible yes, probable no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 By 12 z today the Euro will have a full sampling of the SW on the grid , If its a shunt at that time its a shunt .The NAO is 3 SD below normal and is the overpowering signal, there is just too much confluence as the ULL is stuck under the block and just cant escape , you will not spin this up. I trust the Euro at this range and it has been consistent , 1 more run with this onshore and thats enough for me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 6z GEFS is more north than the op with the precip expansion http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemblep12096.gif Total precip http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemblep72120.gif .75+ for NYC Membershttp://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_6z/ensprsloopmref.html 0z GGEM ensemble mean http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/cmcensemble/00zggemensemblep12108.gif Total precip .75+ for NYC http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/cmcensemble/00zggemensemblep72120.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 6z GEFS is more north than the op with the precip expansion http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemblep12096.gif Total precip http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemblep72120.gif .75+ for NYC Members http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_6z/ensprsloopmref.html 0z GGEM ensemble mean http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/cmcensemble/00zggemensemblep12108.gif Total precip .75+ for NYC http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/cmcensemble/00zggemensemblep72120.gif If I'm not mistaken, this is the wettest the GEFS have ever been for the region. Would not surprise me at all to see the 12z GFS tick northwest based off of so many GFS members being NW of the Operational GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Good post Bluewave. The NAO is rising based off the CPC map. With the NAO rising, the storm should be further north than what the op models are showing. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif The problem is the ULL. We need the ULL to move out quicker than what the GFS and Euro are showing. The GFS is slightly more amped up on the 6z GFS run than the 0z run. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_6z/avnloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 So the GGEM and GEFS means show .50 to .75 for NYC general area. Where were the EURO means? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The models are holding serve with the very strong blocking taking the brunt of the storm to our south. This is why we usually get the big storms here once the AO starts rising, not when it's at the lowest point like it will be in a few days. Wasn't the last big storm with a falling NAO though ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 6z GEFS is more north than the op with the precip expansion http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemblep12096.gif Total precip http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemblep72120.gif .75+ for NYC Members http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_6z/ensprsloopmref.html 0z GGEM ensemble mean http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/cmcensemble/00zggemensemblep12108.gif Total precip .75+ for NYC http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/cmcensemble/00zggemensemblep72120.gif Aw c'mon Ant. Just when I was ready to walk away and enjoy my Sunday... Hate to say it, but need the Euro at either 12z or 0z before I go back to being glued to the runs... However, today the energy is all in view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 So the GGEM and GEFS means show .50 to .75 for NYC general area. Where were the EURO means? Slightly north of the the operational run but no major differences. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS096.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 Slightly north of the the operational run but no major differences. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS096.gif its obvious as of right now that this storm will not be able to move up the coast to produce enough dynamics here to have a mainly snow event - need those dynamics in this situation to create and draw in cold enough surface temps because the surface temps progged are too warm so what ever falls will be mainly liquid in immediate NYC metro. Temps Wednesday and Thurs are progged to be in the 40's . So unless the future model runs bring this system farther north just off the coast to draw in some colder air its mainly a light to moderate rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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